860
FXAK69 PAFG 021205
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
405 AM AKDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
BROAD TROUGHING DOMINATES OVER THE STATE. THIS WILL BRING MULTIPLE
WAVES OF ENERGY AND WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR A RAIN/SNOW MIX.
ANOTHER COASTAL STORM WILL BE MOVING UP THE BERING AND BEGIN TO
AFFECT THE WEST COAST FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING MORE RAINFALL,
WIDESPREAD GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH, AND WATER LEVELS 1-5 FT ABOVE
THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. THESE HIGHER WATER LEVELS WILL BE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST OF THE YK-DELTA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE WEST COAST IS EXPECTED TO SEE MULTIPLE
WAVES OF STORMS OVER THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE
CWA ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND NORMAL FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS AS
WELL.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- RAIN AND SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH MULTIPLE WESTERLY WAVES MOVING ACROSS THE STATE.
- THURSDAY, MAJORITY OF RAIN/SNOW MIX WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE FRONT CONTINUES TO SHIFT E-SE. THE NEXT
SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON,
BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SNOW.
- FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE TO BE MESSY WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR, TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY RAIN
OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHWAY SUMMITS ON SATURDAY.
- SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH FRIDAY:
- 3 TO 6 INCHES IN ISABEL PASS SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP AND 4 TO 9
INCHES ON THE STEESE HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
- 1 TO 2 INCHES ON THE DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND AN INCH OR LESS
FOR MOST OTHER SPOTS.
- WARMER SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BERING SEA STORM
SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN WARMING TEMPERATURES LATE WEEKEND AND
EARLY NEXT WEEK, RESULTING IN RAPID SNOW MELT AT ELEVATIONS
BELOW 5000FT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ANOTHER WAVE OF RAIN AND SNOW ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY, THEN A STRONGER FRONT WITH WARM AIR
AND MORE RAIN ARRIVES FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- THE SNOW WILL MOSTLY RESIDE INLAND FROM THE COAST FROM THE
SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH AND EAST THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MOSTLY RAIN
EVERYWHERE ON SATURDAY.
- WATER LEVELS UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE IS
POSSIBLE, SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY, FOR THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
COAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN COAST OF THE YK-
DELTA. LOWER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ELSEWHERE.
- STRONGER WINDS WILL RETURN SATURDAY, ACROSS THE WEST COAST, AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PUSHES NORTH FROM THE ALEUTIANS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE WILL BE ACTIVE WITH ROUNDS
OF SNOW AND RAIN THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO EARLY THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW SETS IN THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE
BROOKS RANGE AND WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY.
- GUSTY NE WINDS, BETWEEN 35 AND 45 MPH, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NW ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
- ALONG THE SLOPE AND COAST, EXPECT AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW, FLURRIES
AND FOG TO PERSIST WITH ONLY MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES WILL IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST WITH 20S
TO NEAR 30 ON THE NORTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE AND 30S TO NEAR
40 FOR THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A DEEP TROUGH CONTINUES TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE STATE. IT IS
EXPECTED TO TAKE ON A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO
THE EASTERN INTERIOR. A 510 DECAMETER ARCTIC LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
SPIN OFF THE COAST OF THE CENTRAL NORTH SLOPE, BRINGING A
SHORTWAVE ACROSS THE BERING AND THROUGH THE STATE. THESE WILL
BRING CONTINUOUS, WIDESPREAD RAIN AND SNOW THURSDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW, WHICH WILL HELP WITH UPSLOPE SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE WHITE MOUNTAINS.
MORE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO FALL ACROSS THE AK-RANGE ON FRIDAY WITH
THE SHORTWAVE'S PROGRESSION, BRINGING THE HEAVIEST OF
ACCUMULATIONS AT THE PEAKS OF THE RANGE. THE SHORTWAVE WILL BE
QUICKLY PUSHED OUT BY A RIDGE BUILDING UP ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE STATE. THE STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE IS DUE TO THE
NEXT COASTAL SYSTEM, WITH SURFACE PRESSURE EXPECTED AROUND 970MB,
MOVING UP THE BERING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A SUFFICIENT AMOUNT
OF WARM-AIR ADVECTION ACROSS THE STATE, WHICH WILL FEED INTO THE
RIDGE TO HELP IT STRENGTHEN. THIS SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE
LOWER PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST BY LATE FRIDAY NIGHT, BRINGING
EVEN MORE RAIN ACROSS THE YK-DELTA. THERE WILL BE A SMALL BAND OF
SNOW OUT IN FRONT OF THE MAIN LINE, AS THE 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL
BE MUCH COOLER. A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT WINTRY
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LINE OF THE RAIN/SNOW
TRANSITION BOUNDARY. SEE THE COASTAL SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION REGARDING HIGH WATERS ALONG THE BERING WITH THIS
SYSTEM.
IN REGARDS TO MODEL AGREEMENT, THE AK NAM IS CURRENTLY SHOWING A
WEAKER RIDGE FORMING OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE AS THE
COASTAL STORM MOVES NORTH. THIS DOESN'T LOOK TO BE PLAYING A MAJOR
ROLE WITH THE OVERALL PATTERN. MAJORITY OF THE MODELS ARE COMING
INTO GREAT AGREEMENT IN REGARD TO THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF THE
COASTAL STORM. THE NAM REMAINS THE OUTLIER, HAVING THE LOW FILL IN
MUCH SLOWER AS IT MOVES NORTH.
HYDROLOGY...NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS VERSION
THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
ALASKA ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT SOME OF IT MAY MELT AS
SNOW LEVELS INCREASE TO NEARLY 5000FT IN THE INTERIOR. NEXT WEEK
THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH TEMPERATURES BUT THERE IS A
CHANCE THAT HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S IN THE
INTERIOR, AND THIS COULD MELT A LOT OF THE ALREADY ACCUMULATED
SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF THIS HAPPENS, IT WOULD ONLY ADD
TO THE RAIN WATER ENTERING THE RIVER SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST,
WE SHOULD EXPECT GRAVEL BARS TO BE COVERED BUT AS OF NOW, WE ARE
NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AS THE COASTAL STORM CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH, OUT OF THE BERING, A
WESTERLY SHORTWAVE LOOKS TO MOVE OFF OF SIBERIA AND INTO THE YK-
DELTA BY MONDAY MORNING. A WET PATTERN WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
MAJORITY OF THE STATE WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW, PRIOR TO THIS WAVE
MOVING ACROSS. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR GUSTY GAP WINDS
THROUGH THE AK RANGE AT THE END OF THE WEEKEND, INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEHIND THE SHORTWAVE, ALL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE SHOWING
SIGNS OF RIDGING BUILDING UP OVER THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE
STATE. THIS IS DUE TO ANOTHER COASTAL STORM COMING ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS, ON TUESDAY, FEEDING WARM AIR INTO THE WEST COAST.
MODELS ARE SHOWING THE POTENTIAL FOR THIS NEXT SYSTEM TO BE
STRONGER, WITH MODELS SHOWING THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER TO BE AROUND
960MB WITH THE LATEST RUNS. HOWEVER, THESE MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING
THE TRACK OF THIS STORM TO BE SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE WEST, COMPARED
TO THE ONE FROM THE WEEKEND. ANOTHER SWATH OF MOISTURE WILL
ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER WILL BE EXTENDED
INTO THE N. PACIFIC. THIS WILL BE PUSHED OUT BY, YET, ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA PENINSULA SOMETIME BETWEEN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
WATER LEVELS LOOK TO BE AROUND 1 TO 5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH
TIDE LINE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS, POTENTIALLY
UP TO 5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE, WILL BE IN SOUTH-
CENTRAL COAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND THE WESTERN COAST OF
THE YK-DELTA, WITH LOWER LEVELS OF 1 TO 3 FEET ELSEWHERE. THE
TIMING OF THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS WILL BE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING. THERE IS STILL A DECENT SPREAD AMONGST ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS FOR THE MAX WATER LEVELS. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL FORECAST RUNS.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834-838-842.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-804-852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
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