345
FXAK69 PAFG 022159
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 PM AKDT THU OCT 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE TO THE ONGOING FORECAST. THE BULK OF THE
WEATHER WILL BE UNIMPACTFUL, BUT THERE WILL BE SOME LOCALIZED
SPOTS THAT EXPERIENCE MINOR IMPACTS. ONE OF WHICH WILL BE IN THE
INTERIOR TONIGHT THROUGH TOMORROW WHERE RAIN AND SNOW WILL RESULT
IN SLICK TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE OTHER SPOT WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST WHERE A SERIES OF LOWS BRINGS RAIN AND WIND AS WELL AS SOME
HIGH SURF AND WAVE RUN UP THIS WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW AND RAIN ENDING THIS MORNING, ONLY TO BE REPLACED BY MORE
SNOW AND RAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW.
- SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY POOR EVERYWHERE, RESULTING IN WET,
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE MAY SEE 1
TO 3.
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN
FAIRBANKS AND THE VALLEY, BUT UP TO 35 MPH NORTH/EAST.
- SNOWFALL WILL BE RATE DEPENDENT IN THE VALLEYS, MEANING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERE, RESULTING IN SNOW,
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR, MEANING RAIN.
- RAIN AND SNOW ENDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS SATURDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND AS MOST, IF NOT
ALL, SNOW MELTS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- PERSISTENT BERING SEA LOWS BRING RAIN AND WIND EVERYDAY, OR
EVERY OTHER DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
- A WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SPOTS ON
THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE HEAVIEST COMING SATURDAY
INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- WINDS WILL BE CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH THIS WEEKEND TO
SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK. HIGH WATER IS LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH
WAVE RUN UP AND WATER LEVELS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH
TIDE LINE THIS WEEKEND AND POTENTIALLY NEXT WEEK AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD, IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 NORTH
OF THE SEWARD PEN TODAY, LOW 40S SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PEN, AND
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST BY SUNDAY. WARMER
WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE, BUT MOST OF IT IS
LIGHT WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
- STRATUS AND A FEW FLURRIES OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE SLOPE
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF POINT LAY, TOWARDS
THE LISBURNE PENINSULA. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST WITH
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE. UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 ON THE SOUTH SIDE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE INTERIOR WITH ONLY LIGHT RAIN AND
SNOW OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. TODAY REMAINS CHILLY ACROSS THE
AREA AND THAT SETS THE STAGE FOR ANOTHER FRONT BRINING MORE RAIN
AND SNOW THIS EVENING THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. BEFORE WE GET
THERE THOUGH, THE FRONT HAS TO GET THROUGH THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN INTERIOR. EXPECT RAIN FOR MOST OF THE COAST AND INTERIOR
SOUTH/EAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA TODAY WITH MIXED RAIN AND SNOW
NORTH/EAST OF THE PENINSULA. THE LOW PROVIDING THE PRECIPITATION
WILL MOVE ON SHORE THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA THIS EVENING AT
992 MB. PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL BE RAIN WHILE THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000-1500 FEET WILL
BE PREDOMINANTLY SNOW. THE RAIN IN THE VALLEYS MAY GO BACK AND
FORTH WITH SNOW DEPENDING ON PRECIPITATION RATES. THE HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL LIKELY TRANSITION TO, OR MIX WITH SNOW WHILE
LOWER RATES WILL BE RAIN. HEAVIEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN
THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND TOWARDS CHENA HOT SPRINGS WHERE THERE WILL
BE A SLUSHY 2 TO 4 INCHES.
A THIRD LOW WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVER THE EASTERN BERING
AT NEARLY 975 MB FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL BRING A
ROUND OF GUSTY WINDS, RAIN AND A SURGE OF WARMER TEMPERATURES TO
THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, BUT STILL ONLY GUSTING TO ABOUT 50 MPH FROM THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE, THIS RAIN AND WARM AIR MOVES INTO THE
INTERIOR FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH WIDESPREAD RAIN AND
SNOW ONLY ABOVE 5500-6000 FEET. THE RAIN MOVES OUT ON SUNDAY
LEADING TO A MUCH WARMER DAY WITH ISOLATED TO SCATTERED RAIN
SHOWERS ACROSS THE STATE.
HYDROLOGY
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS VERSION.
THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
ALASKA ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT MOST OF IT WILL MELT
AS SNOW LEVELS INCREASE TO NEARLY 5000-7000 FEET ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S IN THE INTERIOR, AND THIS SHOULD MELT A LOT
OF THE ALREADY ACCUMULATED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF THIS
HAPPENS, IT WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE RAIN WATER ENTERING THE RIVER
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST, WE SHOULD EXPECT GRAVEL BARS TO BE
COVERED BUT AS OF NOW, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE LOW IN THE BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO MOVE THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT ON SUNDAY, ALLOWING THE WINDS TO DIMINISH, LEAVING BEHIND A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS FOR THE WEST COAST. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOW WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE STATE, BRINGING
SCATTERED, MIXED PRECIPITATION FOR THE INTERIOR AND SOUTHERN
BROOKS RANGE ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SEE ANOTHER LOW MOVE INTO THE WESTERN
BERING AND THEN REPEAT MANY OF THE SAME CONDITIONS AS THE ONE
HAPPENING THIS WEEKEND. IT'S EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY IN THE
BERING, BUT REMAIN FARTHER WEST PROVIDING SOME LIMITS ON THE
STRONGEST COASTAL WINDS. HOWEVER, AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE BERING
STRAIT ON WEDNESDAY, THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTHWEST NORTH
SLOPE ARE EXPECTED TO SEE AN INCREASE IN WINDS. WIDESPREAD RAIN
WITH SNOW POSSIBLE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS IS EXPECTED ONCE MORE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO 2-5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE
LINE THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS (3-5
FEET) WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON
SOUND. UP TO 2-4 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE YUKON DELTA,
PARTICULARLY HOOPER BAY TO NUNAM IQUA. THERE WILL BE WAVE RUN UP
AS WELL AS COASTAL EROSION POSSIBLE. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL
APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR HIGH WATER AND EVEN COASTAL FLOODING.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ821-822-824.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834-838-842.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-806-810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-853-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BIANCO
LEWIS - EXTENDED
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