111
FXAK69 PAFG 031024
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
224 AM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENCE IS HOLDING STRONG AS THE WEEK COMES TO AN END.
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING A SYSTEM ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
PROVIDING A VAST AMOUNT OF WET SNOWFALL AND RAIN SHOWERS. MORE
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL BE SEEN ALONG THE WEST COAST WITH MULTIPLE
ROUNDS OF COASTAL STORMS. THIS WILL INCLUDE GUSTY WINDS, HIGH
WATERS, AND WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE WEEKEND. MORE
SYSTEMS ARE EXPECTED TO TRAVERSE ACROSS THE BERING THROUGH THE
MID-WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW AND RAIN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
- SNOW RATIOS WILL BE VERY POOR EVERYWHERE, RESULTING IN WET,
SLUSHY ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES
WILL BE IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS WHILE EVERYWHERE ELSE MAY SEE 1
TO 3.
- WINDS WILL BE BREEZY ON FRIDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH IN
FAIRBANKS AND THE VALLEY, BUT UP TO 35 MPH ALONG THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS AND DALTON HWY SUMMITS.
- SNOWFALL WILL BE RATE DEPENDENT IN THE VALLEYS, MEANING HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION WILL COOL THE ATMOSPHERE, RESULTING IN SNOW,
LIGHTER PRECIPITATION WILL ALLOW FOR WARMER AIR, MEANING RAIN.
- RAIN AND SNOW ENDS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHTER RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES WARM SIGNIFICANTLY THIS WEEKEND AS MOST, IF NOT
ALL, SNOW MELTS WITH WIDESPREAD LOW TO MID 50S BY SUNDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- PERSISTENT BERING SEA LOWS BRING RAIN AND WIND EVERYDAY, OR
EVERY OTHER DAY FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK.
- A WIDESPREAD 0.50 TO 1.50 INCHES IS EXPECTED FOR MOST SPOTS
ON THE COAST AND IN THE INTERIOR WITH THE HEAVIEST COMING
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING.
- WINDS WILL BE CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH THIS WEEKEND TO
SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO 2-5 FEET ABOVE
THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST. THE HIGHEST
WATER LEVELS (3-5 FEET) WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND. UP TO 2-4 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE
YUKON DELTA, PARTICULARLY HOOPER BAY TO NUNAM IQUA. THERE WILL
BE WAVE RUN UP AS WELL AS COASTAL EROSION POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD, IN THE UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40 NORTH
OF THE SEWARD PEN TODAY, LOW 40S SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PEN, AND
WARMING INTO THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S FOR MOST BY SUNDAY. WARMER
WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW IN THE BROOKS RANGE, BUT MOST OF IT IS
LIGHT WITH ABOUT 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY.
- STRATUS AND A FEW FLURRIES OR AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW ON THE SLOPE
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF SNOW SOUTHWEST OF POINT LAY, TOWARDS
THE LISBURNE PENINSULA, AND THE SOUTH SLOPES OF THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE. A COUPLE INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST WITH
20S TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE. UPPER 30S TO
NEAR 40 ON THE SOUTH SIDE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
OVERALL PATTERN CONTINUES TO REMAIN ON TRACK, WITH LITTLE CHANGES
TO THE FORECAST. THE WEEK WILL END WITH BROAD TROUGHINESS ACROSS
THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE, DUE TO A 512 DECAMETER LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL ARCTIC OCEAN. THIS WILL RESULT IN WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF RAIN/SNOW ON FRIDAY. THE
VALLEYS ARE EXPECTED TO SEE MORE RAIN WITH THE SNOW LEVELS BETWEEN
1000 AND 1500 FEET. THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL WILL BE ALONG THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS, WITH 3-6 INCHES POSSIBLE. THE REMAINING AREAS WILL
WILL A RAIN/SNOW MIX WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS BETWEEN 1 AND 2
INCHES.
THE LOW OVER THE ARCTIC OCEAN LOW WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL HOURS, BEFORE EVENTUALLY SPLITTING IN A W-E
ORIENTATION. THIS IS DUE TO A RIDGE TRYING TO BUILD IN OVER THE
WESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, AHEAD OF A 970MB LOW MOVING NORTH
FROM THE ALEUTIANS. THIS LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS, UP TO 50 MPH,
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND HIGH WATER LEVELS ALONG THE NORTON SOUND
AND THE WEST COAST OF THE YK-DELTA. WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO
PEAK SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN HIGH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
ACCOMPANIED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS ANOTHER SWATH OF MOISTURE THAT
WILL BRING MORE RAIN AND SNOW ACROSS THE STATE. MAJORITY OF THE
YK-DELTA AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM WILL BE MOSTLY RAIN. THE REST OF THE
WEST COAST WILL SEE A RAIN/SNOW MIX, TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW
AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THE LOW IN THE BERING AND THE RIDGE BUILDING
UP OVER THE STATE WILL RESULT IN SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE STATE.
THIS WILL BRING GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE 970MB LOW WILL BEGIN TO STALL OUT IN
THE BERING AROUND SATURDAY EVENING AND CONTINUE TO BRING MOISTURE
AND GUSTY WINDS THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. THE STRONGER WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO DIE OFF AROUND THE SAME TIME AS THE LOW BEGINS TO FILL
IN.
AS THIS FIRST 970MB LOW FILLS IN, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSING E/NE ALONG THE COAST OF SIBERIA. THIS ONE WILL BE
SLIGHTLY WEAKER, BUT WILL KEEP THE CONDITIONS THE SAME, LEADING UP
TO A STRONGER SYSTEM MID-NEXT WEEK. MORE DETAILS IN THE EXTENDED
SECTION.
HYDROLOGY
NO CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS VERSION.
THERE IS A BIT OF CONCERN HEADING INTO THIS WEEKEND AND NEXT
WEEK. NUMEROUS ROUNDS OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN
ALASKA ALMOST ON A DAILY BASIS INTO THE WEEKEND AND BEYOND.
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, THERE MAY BE WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
LIQUID PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA. SOME OF THIS WILL FALL AS
SNOW, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN, BUT MOST OF IT WILL MELT
AS SNOW LEVELS INCREASE TO NEARLY 5000-7000 FEET ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ON SUNDAY. NEXT WEEK WILL BE MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE
UPPER 40S OR LOW 50S IN THE INTERIOR, AND THIS SHOULD MELT A LOT
OF THE ALREADY ACCUMULATED SNOW ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN. IF THIS
HAPPENS, IT WOULD ONLY ADD TO THE RAIN WATER ENTERING THE RIVER
SYSTEM. AT THE VERY LEAST, WE SHOULD EXPECT GRAVEL BARS TO BE
COVERED BUT AS OF NOW, WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING ANY FLOODING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
GLOBAL MODELS BEGIN TO DIVERGE FAIRLY EARLY IN THE EXTENDED
FORECAST, COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS DAYS.
ALL OF THE MODELS SHOW AGREEMENT WITH A WEAKER SYSTEM MOVING E/NE
ALONG THE COAST OF SIBERIA ON MONDAY. THE GFS AND EC THEN SHOW
THE STRONGER SYSTEM MOVING OVER THE ALEUTIANS EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING. THE DETERMINISTIC RUNS OF THE EC AND GFS ARE ESTIMATING
THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW BETWEEN 950 AND 955MB, AND ALSO TAKE A
SIMILAR TRACK TO THE ONE THAT MOVED ACROSS THE BERING OVER THE
WEEKEND. THE GEM IS DISPLAYING A SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT SOLUTION. THE
STORM MOVING ALONG THE COAST OF SIBERIA IS THE PROMINENT SYSTEM,
BRINGING UP A LARGE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE ALONG THE WEST COAST. THE
TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE 955MB STORM ON THE GFS
AND ECMWF. ANOTHER SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO MOVE ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA SOMETIME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE SHOWING
THIS STORM TO BE WELL ORGANIZED WITH THE LOW BETWEEN 960 AND
970MB, BRINGING ANOTHER STRONG FRONT TO THE WEST COAST THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
WITH ALL OF THAT SAID, THE EXTENDED FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS TO START. ON TUESDAY, THE FORECAST WILL LEAN MORE
TOWARD THE EC/GFS WITH THE 950MB LOW MOVING UP THE BERING. THE
GEM IS BROUGHT BACK INTO THE FORECAST BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH
THE NEXT STORM THAT IS EXPECTED TO COME ACROSS THE KAMCHATKA
PENINSULA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO 2-5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE
LINE THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS (3-5
FEET) WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON
SOUND. UP TO 2-4 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE YUKON DELTA,
PARTICULARLY HOOPER BAY TO NUNAM IQUA. THERE WILL BE WAVE RUN UP
AS WELL AS COASTAL EROSION POSSIBLE. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW WILL
APPROACH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR HIGH WATER AND EVEN COASTAL FLOODING.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ821-822-824.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ834-838-842.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-805>807-852-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
TWOMBLY
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