386
FXAK69 PAFG 040014
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
414 PM AKDT FRI OCT 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SPINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING SEA THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING MULTIPLE WAVES OF PRECIPITATION. THE LEADING EDGE
OF RAIN IS LIFTING NORTHEAST ALONG THE WEST COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE
NORTON SOUND AREA. THESE STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDS BRING HIGH SURF AND
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND PERHAPS
THE WESTERN LISBURNE PENINSULA. WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION MAINLY IN
THE FORM OF RAIN MOVES INLAND BUT MAINLY STAYS ALONG THE WEST COAST
AND WESTERN INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS IS THE FIRST IN A
SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS EXPECTED TO ENTER THE BERING SEA OVER THE
NEXT 10 OR SO DAYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ABOVE ~1500 FT CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT THEN DIMINISH ON SATURDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE AROUND OR LESS THAN 1 INCH.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS BRING WARMING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS
IN THE 40S AND 50S AND LOWS IN THE 30S TO AROUND 40.
- MOUNTAIN GAP WINDS INCREASE ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH GUSTS OF 55 TO 65 MPH EXPECTED FOR ISABEL PASS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A SERIES OF BERING SEA LOWS BRING FREQUENT RAIN CHANCES AND BREEZY
SOUTHEAST WINDS ON SATURDAY THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST WINDS TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- WINDS WILL BE CHANGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH THIS WEEKEND TO
SOUTHWEST NEXT WEEK. WATER LEVELS RISE TO 2-5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGH TIDE LINE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS
PERSIST. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS (3-5 FEET) WILL BE ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND NORTON SOUND. UP TO 2-4 FEET IS
EXPECTED IN THE YUKON DELTA, PARTICULARLY HOOPER BAY TO NUNAM IQUA.
THERE WILL BE WAVE RUN UP AS WELL AS COASTAL EROSION POSSIBLE.
- SEVERAL WAVES OF LIGHT TO MOD RAINFALL ADD UP TO 0.5 TO 1.5 INCHES
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. A PERIOD OF HEAVIER
RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN MILD, WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 40S AND
LOWS MAINLY IN THE 30S. WARMER WEATHER PERSISTS INTO NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ROUNDS OF RAIN AND HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW SHOWERS CONTINUE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. SOUTH FACING SLOPES ABOVE 3500 FT ACROSS
THE WEST-CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE MAY GET 3-7 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT, BUT TEMPERATURES WARM TO NEAR OR ABOVE FREEZING BELOW
3000 FT MELTING ANY SNOW THAT FALLS.
- A BERING SEA STORM MOVES OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA ON WEDNESDAY
BRINGING POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WINDS AND A ROUND OF HEAVIER
PRECIPITATION TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ALONG THE COAST WITH 20S
TO NEAR 30 ALONG THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE AND UPPER 30S TO NEAR 40
ON THE SOUTH SIDE THROUGH SATURDAY WITH EARLY NEXT WEEK RANGING FROM
5 TO 10F WARMER.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AS OF 4PM FRIDAY AFTERNOON, A DEEPENING ~972 MB SURFACE LOW IS
SPINNING NEAR 56N AND 178W. THIS SYSTEM REACHES PEAK INTENSITY
AROUND 968 MB WEST OF ST. MATTHEW ISLAND LATE TONIGHT BEFORE
GRADUALLY FILLING/WEAKENING IN ROUGHLY THE SAME LOCATION SATURDAY
THROUGH SUNDAY. THIS SYSTEM ESTABLISHES A CHINOOK REGIME ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WITH GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE GAPS AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. WAVES OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN
CHANCES LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEST COAST WITH
LIGHT SNOW ACROSS THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE
TRANSITIONING TO ALL RAIN BELOW ~3500 FT BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
GENERALLY DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR WITH
THIS SURGE OF WARMTH THAT PERSISTS INTO SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY WHEN
THE TROUGH AXIS PIVOTS ACROSS THE STATE BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD
RAIN CHANCES AND MORE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. THE NEXT ROUND OF
PATTERN AMPLIFICATION IS EXPECTED FOR MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS
AN IMPRESSIVE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PIVOTS TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS
SCOOPING A MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM ~30N. A DEEP SURFACE LOW
AND ACCOMPANYING ATMOSPHERIC RIVER APPROACH THE WEST COAST ON
TUESDAY, SEE THE EXTENDED FORECAST SECTION FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
HYDROLOGY
A WETTER WEATHER PATTERN HAS RETURNED TO NORTHERN ALASKA AND
REPEATED RAIN CHANCES OVER THE NEXT 10 OR SO DAYS IS EXPECTED TO
RESULT IN RISING RIVER LEVELS FOR SMALLER TRIBUTARIES, BUT FLOODING
CONCERNS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE BIG PICTURE IS GENERALLY UNCHANGED WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF
STORMY WEATHER EXPECTED AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS TRACK NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE BERING SEA. THE MOST CONCERNING STORM SYSTEM ARRIVES
BETWEEN TUESDAY AND THURSDAY WHEN ENSEMBLE MEANS INDICATE A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA AS A DEEP
UPPER LEVEL LOW TRACKS NORTH ACROSS THE CHUKCHI PENINSULA. AFTER
SEVERAL DAYS OF FAIRLY CONSISTENT SOLUTIONS, 06/12Z DETERMINISTIC
GFS AND ECMWF REVEALED A VARIETY OF STORM TRACKS AND INTENSITIES
THAT GENERALLY LOWERED FORECASTER CONFIDENCE. HOWEVER, ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE HAS BEEN MORE CONSISTENT SUGGESTING THAT PERSISTENCE IS THE
BEST COURSE OF ACTION. IF THE STRONGER HALF OF ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE
VERIFIES THEN SOUTHWEST GUSTS GREATER THAN 50 MPH AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR ALONG PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR IMPACTS IS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PEN AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FARTHER
NORTH. ANOTHER POWERFUL STORM SYSTEM SEEMS LIKELY TO SPIN UP ACROSS
THE FAR WESTERN BERING SEA ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BUT IT MAY END
UP TOO FAR WEST TO BRING NOTEWORTHY IMPACTS TO OUR AREA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
WATER LEVELS WILL RISE TO 2-5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE
AROUND THE NORTON SOUND THIS WEEKEND, PARTICULARLY SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY AS SOUTH-SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST. THE HIGHEST WATER
LEVELS (3-5 FEET) WILL BE ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA. UP TO
2-4 FEET IS EXPECTED IN THE YUKON DELTA, PARTICULARLY HOOPER BAY TO
NUNAM IQUA. THERE WILL BE WAVE RUN UP AS WELL AS COASTAL EROSION
POSSIBLE. ANOTHER STRONGER LOW APPROACHES NEXT TUESDAY OR WEDNESDAY
WITH SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW AND A CHANCE FOR HIGH WATER AND EVEN
COASTAL FLOODING. DETAILS REGARDING POTENTIAL IMPACTS ARE UNCLEAR
BUT THE ENTIRE WEST COAST FROM THE YK DELTA NORTH TO THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST SHOULD MONITOR FORECAST UPDATES. THE MOST LIKELY TIME
FRAME FOR IMPACTS IS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY SOUTH OF THE
SEWARD PEN AND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FARTHER
NORTH.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR AKZ821-822.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-812-858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805-806-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808>811-855-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
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