655
FXAK69 PAFG 062131
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
131 PM AKDT MON OCT 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE MAJOR STORY IS A BERING SEA STORM HONING ON ON THE WEST COAST
WHICH WILL BRING IMPACTS ACROSS THE STATE. THE WEST COAST WESTERN
NORTH SLOPE WILL HAVE STRONG WINDS, COASTAL FLOODING AND
SIGNIFICANT EROSION WHILE THE INTERIOR WILL RECEIVE GUSTY WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN. THE AK RANGE PASSES WILL GET VERY STRONG WINDS
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THE BROOKS RANGE
WILL BE WINDY WITH RAIN TO THE SOUTH AND SNOW IN ATIGUN PASS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- GENERALLY QUIET WITH A FEW SHOWERS AROUND AND CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TERRAIN.
- STRONG WINDS IN THE AK RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH WINDY AND ISABEL PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.
- WIND IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE STRONG AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. GUSTS WILL BE UP TO
30 MPH IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- QUIET CONDITIONS ALONG THE COAST UNTIL THIS AFTERNOON, ANOTHER
ROUND OF RAIN IN THE INTERIOR TODAY, EAST OF THE NULATO HILLS.
- BERING SEA LOW MOVES NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON, RAIN AND MOSTLY
WEAK WIND MOVES INTO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON.
- THE LOW RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS TONIGHT, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH MOVE INTO THE YUKON
DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND AS EARLY AS TUESDAY
MORNING.
- RAIN AND WIND GETS TO KOTZEBUE AS EARLY AS 12PM ON TUESDAY.
- THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60+ MPH
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHWARD FROM
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE YUKON DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT.
- THOUGH MOST GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 60-65 MPH, SOME GUSTS
MAY BE AS HIGH AS 75 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICAL WINDY
SPOTS/HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BERING STRAIT REGION, AND YUKON
DELTA.
- RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND
0.50 TO 1 INCH IN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, BERING STRAIT AND
NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, UP TO 1.50 INCHES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
- COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE "COASTAL HAZARD
POTENTIAL" SECTION. BUT, COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED AND THEY HAVE DETAILS ABOUT THE FLOODING AS WELL.
- THESE CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AFG
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AND
SIGNIFICANT EROSION. THESE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL SECTION.
- WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
NORTH SLOPE TUESDAY MORNING AND ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
ANAKTUVUK PASS AND THE NORTH SLOPE, 5 TO 10 INCHES IN ATIGUN
PASS AND POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 18 INCHES IN THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE NORTH/EAST OF SHUNGNAK.
- THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN PARTS OF ATIGUN
PASSES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND/OR DRIFTING
SNOW AS WELL AS VERY LOW VISIBILITY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 980 MB LOW IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING IN THE WESTERN ALEUTIANS.
THIS LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL BERING TONIGHT. DURING THIS
TIME THE LOW WILL BEGIN TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY. STRONG WINDS AND
RAIN FROM THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN IN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
YUKON DELTA TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING. THE LOW WILL GET TO THE
GULF OF ANADYR AND BE AT ITS STRONGEST POINT WHICH WILL BE ABOUT
960 MB. AN 850 MB JET WILL BE PUMPING WINDS AT ABOUT 60 TO 75
KNOTS THAT WILL STRETCH FROM THE BERING SEA TO THE KUSKOKWIM
VALLEY AND THEN THE TANANA VALLEY. WITH HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED TO
ACCOMPANY THIS FRONT, WE ARE EXPECTING WINDS TO BE ABLE TO FREELY
MIX DOWN. THERE WILL BE AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT IS FEEDING
MOISTURE INTO MAINLAND ALASKA. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS PRODUCING
PRECIPITABLE WATER ANOMALIES OF 3 TO 5 SIGMA ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN IS LIKELY WITH SOME AREAS
RECEIVING UP TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN. THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM
WILL BE A MULTI-DAY EVENT STRETCHING FROM MONDAY NIGHT TO THURSDAY
MORNING.
HYDROLOGY
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA:
MODERATE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY TO NEAR BANKFULL ALONG INLAND AREAS.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RIVERS LEVELS WILL BE COMBINED WITH HIGH
COASTAL WATER LEVELS AS THEY DRAIN INTO NORTON SOUND.
INTERIOR:
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR ALASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 0.5
AND 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPLANDS NEAR FAIRBANKS AND ALONG
THE DALTON HIGHWAY. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MELT 3 TO 12 INCHES
OF SNOW THAT COVERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET AND WILL
INCREASE RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS.
WATER LEVELS ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
RAPIDLY AND COVER GRAVEL BARS AND IN LOCALIZED AREAS APPROACH
BANKFULL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE BIG STORY IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY IS GOING TO
BE ANOTHER POTENTIALLY STRONG BERING SEA LOW. CURRENTLY, WE ARE
TRACKING A TYPHOON OFF THE COAST OF JAPAN WHICH WILL RECURVE
NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS. AS IT RECURVES, IT MAY RUN INTO
ANOTHER LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA ON FRIDAY. THE FORMER
TYPHOON HAS A CHANCE TO ABSORB THE ENERGY FROM THE LOW IN THE
WESTERN BERING SEA AND RAPIDLY STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE
BERING. THIS COULD BRING A REPEAT OF WHAT WE ARE CURRENTLY GOING
THROUGH ALONG THE COAST. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY AS
GEFS, EPS AND CMC ENSEMBLES HAVE A SPREAD WITH THE LOW ANYWHERE
FROM SOUTH OF THE ALEUTIANS TO THE BERING STRAIT AND EVERYWHERE IN
BETWEEN. SO, RIGHT NOW IT IS DEFINITELY SOMETHING TO MONITOR AND
THE BIGGEST STORY IN THE EXTENDED.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COAST
STORM. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WARNING/ADVISORY DOESN'T MEAN
"IMPACTFUL/NON- IMPACTFUL". THIS WILL IMPACT EVERY COMMUNITY IN
DIFFERENT WAYS, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND/OR SIGNIFICANT
EROSION. WHILE SOME PLACES WON'T SEE "WARNING LEVEL FLOODING"
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BEACHES, AIR STRIPS, DUMPS,
AND MORE. DETAILS BELOW.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING 3 TO 4 HIGH TIDE CYCLES THAT WILL SEE HIGHER
WATERS. WHILE THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE DURING HIGH TIDE, THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH TIDE AND LOW TIDE.
WHILE WATER MAY RECEDE A BIT DURING LOW TIDE, EXPECT THE WATER TO
COME BACK UP. FOR COMMUNITIES THAT ARE SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT,
THESE HIGH TIDES WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY MORNING, ,
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT IT WILL BE THE TWO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDES AND THE THURSDAY
HIGH TIDES. THERE WILL STILL BE CONCERNS THURSDAY MORNING
PARTICULARLY WHEN THE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY FROM THE NORTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. HOOPER BAY TO NUNAM
IQUA IS EXPECTED TO SEE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE
LINE. STEBBINS TO SHAKTOOLIK WILL BE 4 TO 9 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGH TIDE LINE. KOYUK WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER OF 5 TO 10 FEET
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. ELIM TO WALES WILL SEE 4 TO 8
FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. GAMBELL AND SAVOONGA WILL
HAVE 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE, HIGHEST IN
GAMBELL ON THE WEST SIDE. SHISHMAREF TO KOTZEBUE IS EXPECTING 3 TO
8 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. KOTZEBUE SPECIFICALLY
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FLOODING RIVALING THE FLOODING EVENT OF
2024 AS WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED THAT LEVEL (WHICH WAS
6.5 FEET). RED DOG TO POINT LAY IS EXPECTING 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE THE
NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK IS EXPECTING 2 TO
5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE.
WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT EROSION FOR MANY ALONG THE COAST
WITH COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN MORE VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW FOR A STRONG COASTAL
STORM EVERYWHERE ALONG THE COAST AS MOST, IF NOT ALL COMMUNITIES
WILL SEE SOME SORT OF IMPACT.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ801-816>818.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ802-803.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ815.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ820.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ821.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ824.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ825-826.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ827.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ827.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ832-834.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ838-842.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-802-816-817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803-805-806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ808>811-855-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853.
BIANCO
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