638
FXAK69 PAFG 071326
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
526 AM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
THERE HAS BEEN SOME CHANGE TO THE FORECAST THIS MORNING. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A SUDDEN WESTWARD SHIFT OF THE SYSTEM
SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THIS SHIFT WOULD WEAKEN THE OVERALL WIND
FIELD, BUT WOULD CONTINUE TO BRING STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN,
COASTAL FLOODING, AND COASTAL EROSION TO THE WEST COAST AND
WESTERN ARCTIC. THE INTERIOR WILL SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS
WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL SEE VERY STRONG
WINDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHEAST INTO THE CHUCKCHI SEA, THE
NORTH SLOPE AND THE BROOKS RANGE WILL RECEIVE A ROUND OF RAIN OR
SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY SOUTHERLY WINDS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR. HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TERRAIN.
- STRONG WINDS IN THE AK RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH POSSIBLE
THROUGH WINDY AND ISABEL PASSES TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKENING DURING THE EVENING.
- WIND IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE STRONG AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. GUSTS WILL BE UP TO
35 MPH IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- BERING SEA LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE GULF OF
ANADYR.
- THE LOW CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN THIS MORNING, PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH MOVE INTO THE
YUKON DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND NORTON SOUND AS EARLY AS
THIS MORNING.
- RAIN AND WIND GETS TO KOTZEBUE AS EARLY AS 12PM TODAY.
- THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60+ MPH
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHWARD FROM
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS
WILL BE IN THE YUKON DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT.
- THOUGH MOST GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 60-65 MPH, SOME GUSTS
MAY BE AS HIGH AS 75 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICAL WINDY
SPOTS/HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BERING STRAIT REGION, AND YUKON
DELTA.
- RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND
0.50 TO 1 INCH IN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, BERING STRAIT AND
NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, UP TO 1.50 INCHES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
- COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE "COASTAL HAZARD
POTENTIAL" SECTION. BUT, COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED AND THEY HAVE DETAILS ABOUT THE FLOODING AS WELL.
- THESE CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AFG
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AND
SIGNIFICANT EROSION. THESE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL SECTION.
- WIDESPREAD SNOW DEVELOPS IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
NORTH SLOPE TUESDAY MORNING AND ENDS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
ANAKTUVUK PASS AND THE NORTH SLOPE, 5 TO 10 INCHES IN ATIGUN
PASS AND POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 18 INCHES IN THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE NORTH/EAST OF SHUNGNAK.
- THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN PARTS OF ATIGUN
PASSES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND/OR DRIFTING
SNOW AS WELL AS VERY LOW VISIBILITY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE 965 MB BERING SEA LOW IS MOVING SLOWLY NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE
GULF OF ANADYR THIS MORNING. THE 06Z MODEL GUIDANCE HAS THIS LOW
STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 962 MB. THE DISCREPANCY FROM PREVIOUS RUNS
IS THE TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. MODELS ARE INDICATING A SUDDEN SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST SOMETIME THIS MORNING. THIS SHIFT WOULD MOVE THE
WIND FIELD FARTHER TO THE WEST, KEEPING THE STRONGEST WINDS OFF
OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. AS OF NOW WE ARE KEEPING THE HIGH WIND
WARNING OUT FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND FOR GUSTS UP TO 70 MPH, UNTIL
WE ARE ABLE TO INTERROGATE WHAT WILL HAPPEN IN REAL TIME. OVER
THE YUKON DELTA AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WE ARE STILL EXPECTING
STRONG WINDS TO ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT. THERE IS STILL A VERY
ROBUST 850 MB JET WITH WINDS AROUND 65 KNOTS. WITH HEAVY
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT SHOULD BE ABLE TO
MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. BEHIND THE FRONT, ARCTIC AIR WILL BE
RUSHING BEHIND IT. THIS WOULD HELP TO DRY OUT THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE, BUT ALSO CREATE A WELL MIXED LAYER. THIS WELL MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WINDY AS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ALASKA. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES
OF RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED, AND HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL
IN THE BROOKS RANGE. SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABOVE
5000 FEET FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD
AIR WRAPS BACK INTO THE INTERIOR.
HYDROLOGY
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA:
MODERATE RAIN WILL BEGIN TO FALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA BEGINNING TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY AND INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY TO NEAR BANKFULL ALONG INLAND AREAS.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RIVERS LEVELS WILL BE COMBINED WITH HIGH
COASTAL WATER LEVELS AS THEY DRAIN INTO NORTON SOUND.
INTERIOR:
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WILL MOVE INTO INTERIOR ALASKA TUESDAY
AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 0.5
AND 1.5 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE UPLANDS NEAR FAIRBANKS AND ALONG
THE DALTON HIGHWAY. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MELT 3 TO 12 INCHES
OF SNOW THAT COVERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET AND WILL
INCREASE RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS.
WATER LEVELS ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
RAPIDLY AND COVER GRAVEL BARS AND IN LOCALIZED AREAS APPROACH
BANKFULL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AT THE BEGINNING OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
REMNANTS OF THE WEST COAST STORM SIT OF THE NORTH SLOPE COAST AND
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND MOVE NORTHEAST. THIS WILL PROVIDE SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOWFALL TO THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE THROUGH FRIDAY
AS WELL AS STRONG WESTERLY WINDS PRIMARILY EAST OF POINT BARROW AND
ESPECIALLY NEAR BARTER ISLAND THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE COMBINATION
OF LIGHT SNOWFALL AND INCREASING WINDS COULD LEAD TO REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING, MOST LIKELY EAST OF PRUDHOE BAY.
FRIDAY IS EXPECTED TO BE RELATIVELY CALM FOR THE WEST COAST AND
INTERIOR AS THE COASTAL STORM EXITS THE REGION, HOWEVER ANOTHER
STRONG LOW PRESSURE ENTERS THE WESTERN BERING SEA EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON HALONG, CURRENTLY NEAR JAPAN, ARE
LIKELY TO BE WRAPPED AROUND THIS WESTERN BERING LOW AND GET PULLED
NORTH INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THIS SYSTEM, IT'S STRENGTH AND EXACT TRACK ARE
NOT YET CERTAIN, BUT CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN THERE BEING ANOTHER
STRONG LOW IN THE BERING SEA SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
COASTAL HAZARDS POSSIBLE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COAST
STORM. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WARNING/ADVISORY DOESN'T MEAN
"IMPACTFUL/NON- IMPACTFUL". THIS WILL IMPACT EVERY COMMUNITY IN
DIFFERENT WAYS, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND/OR SIGNIFICANT
EROSION. WHILE SOME PLACES WON'T SEE "WARNING LEVEL FLOODING"
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BEACHES, AIR STRIPS, DUMPS,
AND MORE. DETAILS BELOW.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING 3 TO 4 HIGH TIDE CYCLES THAT WILL SEE HIGHER
WATERS. WHILE THE HIGHEST WATER WILL BE DURING HIGH TIDE, THERE
WILL BE VERY LITTLE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN HIGH TIDE AND LOW TIDE.
WHILE WATER MAY RECEDE A BIT DURING LOW TIDE, EXPECT THE WATER TO
COME BACK UP. FOR COMMUNITIES THAT ARE SOUTH OF THE BERING STRAIT,
THESE HIGH TIDES WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON, WEDNESDAY MORNING, ,
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, AND THURSDAY MORNING. NORTH OF THE BERING
STRAIT IT WILL BE THE TWO WEDNESDAY HIGH TIDES AND THE THURSDAY
HIGH TIDES. THERE WILL STILL BE CONCERNS THURSDAY MORNING
PARTICULARLY WHEN THE WINDS TURN NORTHWESTERLY FROM THE NORTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. HOOPER BAY TO NUNAM
IQUA IS EXPECTED TO SEE 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE
LINE. STEBBINS TO SHAKTOOLIK WILL BE 4 TO 9 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL
HIGH TIDE LINE. KOYUK WILL HAVE THE HIGHEST WATER OF 5 TO 10 FEET
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. ELIM TO WALES WILL SEE 4 TO 8
FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. GAMBELL AND SAVOONGA WILL
HAVE 2 TO 5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE, HIGHEST IN
GAMBELL ON THE WEST SIDE. SHISHMAREF TO KOTZEBUE IS EXPECTING 3 TO
8 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. KOTZEBUE SPECIFICALLY
SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR FLOODING RIVALING THE FLOODING EVENT OF
2024 AS WATER LEVELS MAY APPROACH OR EXCEED THAT LEVEL (WHICH WAS
6.5 FEET). RED DOG TO POINT LAY IS EXPECTING 4 TO 8 FEET ABOVE THE
NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE. WAINWRIGHT TO UTQIAGVIK IS EXPECTING 2 TO
5 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE.
WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT EROSION FOR MANY ALONG THE COAST
WITH COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN MORE VULNERABLE
LOCATIONS. PREPARATIONS SHOULD BE MADE NOW FOR A STRONG COASTAL
STORM EVERYWHERE ALONG THE COAST AS MOST, IF NOT ALL COMMUNITIES
WILL SEE SOME SORT OF IMPACT.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ801-816>818.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ802-803.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ828>830-851-852.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ815.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ820.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ821.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ822.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ824.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ825-826.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ827.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ827.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ832-834.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ838-842.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-802.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803-805-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-816-817-853-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ808>811-855-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
DENNIS
EXTENDED:STOKES
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