550
FXAK69 PAFG 072148
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
148 PM AKDT TUE OCT 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO CONVERGE ON A MORE WESTWARD TRACK OF A
POWERFUL STORM CURRENTLY LOCATED IN THE NW BERING SEA WITH THE
STORM NOW TRACKING INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR. EVEN WITH THE FURTHER
WEST TRACK THE LARGE WIND FIELD WITH THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO
BRING STRONG WINDS, HEAVY RAIN, COASTAL FLOODING, AND COASTAL
EROSION TO THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN ARCTIC. THE INTERIOR WILL
SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AS WELL AS GUSTY WINDS. THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES WILL SEE VERY STRONG WINDS. AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
NORTHEAST INTO THE CHUCKCHI SEA, THE NORTH SLOPE AND THE BROOKS
RANGE WILL RECEIVE A ROUND OF RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS AND GUSTY
SOUTHERLY WINDS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LINGERING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND FOG THIS MORNING IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR.
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FOR MOST OF THE INTERIOR EXPECTED.
THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE TERRAIN.
- STRONG WINDS IN THE AK RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 80 MPH OR HIGHER
POSSIBLE THROUGH WINDY AND ISABEL PASSES TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, THEN WEAKENING DURING THE WEDNESDAY EVENING.
- WIND IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE STRONG AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. GUSTS WILL BE UP TO
35 MPH IN THE TANANA VALLEY AND UP TO 55 MPH IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- THE BERING SEA LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH AND THEN NORTHWEST
INTO THE GULF OF ANADYR.
- THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN EARLY THIS EVENING AND THEN
BEGIN TO WEAKEN TONIGHT, PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND
SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AND WIND GUSTS TO 65 MPH HAVE MOVED INTO INTO
THE YUKON DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND NORTON SOUND.
- RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN KOTZEBUE SOUND AND
AND SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST.
- THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60+ MPH
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE
YUKON DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT.
- THOUGH MOST GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 60-65 MPH, SOME GUSTS
MAY BE AS HIGH AS 75 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICAL WINDY
SPOTS/HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BERING STRAIT REGION, AND YUKON
DELTA.
- RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE AROUND
0.50 TO 1 INCH IN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, BERING STRAIT AND
NORTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, UP TO 1.50 INCHES EVERYWHERE ELSE.
- COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE "COASTAL HAZARD
POTENTIAL" SECTION. BUT, COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED AND THEY HAVE DETAILS ABOUT THE FLOODING AS WELL.
- THESE CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AFG
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY EVENING WINDS SHIFT SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY.
THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AND
SIGNIFICANT EROSION. THESE CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL SECTION.
- WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH
SLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
ANAKTUVUK PASS AND THE NORTH SLOPE, 5 TO 10 INCHES IN ATIGUN
PASS AND POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 18 INCHES IN THE WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE NORTH/EAST OF SHUNGNAK.
- THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN PARTS OF ATIGUN
PASSES WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND/OR DRIFTING
SNOW AS WELL AS VERY LOW VISIBILITY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE 966 MB IN THE NORTHWEST BERING SEA LOW IS CURRENTLY MOVING
SLOWLY NORTH AND WILL DRIFT TO THE NORTHWEST MOVING INTO THE GULF
OF ANADYR THIS EVENING. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
CONVERGE ON THE STORM DEEPENING TO AROUND 964 MB BEFORE SLOWLY
WEAKENING THIS EVENING AS IT MAKES LANDFALL IN THE GULF OF
ANADYR. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO CONVERGE ON BOTH THE TRACK AND THE
STRENGTH OF THIS POWERFUL STORM. THE LARGE WIND FIELD ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS STORM WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT WESTERN ALASKA, THE
BERING STRAIT AND THE NORTHERN BERING SEA DESPITE MINOR CHANGES
IN THE TRACK OF THIS STORM WITH ONLY MINOR UPDATES TO THIS
AFTERNOON'S FORECAST PACKAGE AND HAZARDS. PLEASE SEE THE VARIOUS
HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR ST LAWRENCE ISLAND AS WELL AS THE WEST
COAST OF ALASKA. OVER THE YUKON DELTA AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TO ACCOMPANY THE WARM FRONT. THERE IS
STILL A VERY ROBUST 850 MB JET WITH WINDS AROUND 65 KNOTS. WITH
HEAVY PRECIPITATION EXPECTED, STRONG WINDS FROM ALOFT SHOULD BE
ABLE TO MIX DOWN TOWARDS THE SURFACE. BEHIND THE FRONT, ARCTIC AIR
WILL BE RUSHING BEHIND IT. THIS WOULD HELP TO DRY OUT THE LOWER
ATMOSPHERE, BUT ALSO CREATE A WELL MIXED LAYER. THIS WELL MIXED
LAYER WILL KEEP CONDITIONS WINDY AS THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF
WINDS ALOFT TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. PLENTY OF PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THIS SYSTEM AS AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS
FEEDING MOISTURE INTO NORTHERN ALASKA. WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAIN ACROSS THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED, AND HEAVY SNOW ONGOING IN
THE BROOKS RANGE. SNOW LEVELS FOR THIS SYSTEM WILL BE ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR MOST AREAS UNTIL WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE COLD AIR
WRAPS BACK INTO THE INTERIOR. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV/AFG FOR THE
LATEST UPDATES ON THE ONGOING AND FORECASTED HAZARDS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS POWERFUL STORM.
HYDROLOGY
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA:
MODERATE RAIN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA WILL CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. BETWEEN 1 AND 2 INCHES OF RAIN ARE
EXPECTED WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN LOCALIZED AREAS,
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE RAPIDLY TO NEAR BANKFULL ALONG INLAND AREAS.
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RIVERS LEVELS WILL BE COMBINED WITH HIGH
COASTAL WATER LEVELS AS THEY DRAIN INTO NORTON SOUND.
INTERIOR:
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN IN INTERIOR ALASKA WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. RAINFALL TOTALS OF BETWEEN 0.5 AND 1.5 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED IN THE UPLANDS NEAR FAIRBANKS AND ALONG THE DALTON
HIGHWAY. THIS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO MELT 3 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW
THAT COVERS HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET AND WILL INCREASE
RUNOFF INTO SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS.
WATER LEVELS ON SMALL STREAMS AND RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE
RAPIDLY AND COVER GRAVEL BARS AND IN LOCALIZED AREAS APPROACH
BANKFULL LEVELS ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE REMNANTS OF A LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO
THE NORTH SLOPE AND PARTS OF THE INTERIOR FRIDAY MORNING BEFORE A
HIGH PRESSURE SETS IN BRIEFLY FOR THE INTERIOR FRIDAY EVENING. AT
THE SAME TIME, A COLD FRONT WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY ONTO THE WEST
COAST, BRINGING RAIN AND RELATIVELY GUSTY WINDS.
UNFORTUNATELY, FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT, THERE WILL BE ANOTHER,
STRONGER LOW MAKING ITS WAY THROUGH THE BERING SEA AND WILL BEGIN
IMPACTING THE WEST COAST SATURDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG WINDS TO THE WEST COAST AND ESPECIALLY
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THIS WILL ALSO BRING MORE COASTAL FLOODING
CONCERNS FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE COAST. AS THE LOW TRAVELS NORTH
TOWARDS THE GULF OF ANADYR, A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE ITS WAY ACROSS
THE STATE AND BRING RAIN WITH THE POTENTIAL OF MIXED PRECIPITATION
FOR PARTS OF THE NORTH SLOPE AND INTERIOR ON SUNDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COAST
STORM. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WARNING/ADVISORY DOESN'T MEAN
"IMPACTFUL/NON- IMPACTFUL". THIS WILL IMPACT EVERY COMMUNITY IN
DIFFERENT WAYS, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND/OR SIGNIFICANT
EROSION. WHILE SOME PLACES WON'T SEE "WARNING LEVEL FLOODING"
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BEACHES, AIR STRIPS, DUMPS,
AND MORE. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV/AFG FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON
THE ONGOING AND FORECASTED HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POWERFUL
STORM.
WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT EROSION FOR MANY COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. MOST, IF NOT ALL COMMUNITIES WILL SEE SOME
SORT OF IMPACT WITH THIS CURRENT STORM.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR AN EVEN MORE POWERFUL
STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON SATURDAY AND THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THIS
SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK THAT MAY IMPACT MANY OF
THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT ARE OR WILL BE IMPACTED BY TODAY'S AND
TONIGHT'S STORM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SECOND AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE POWERFUL STORM. THE LATEST FORECASTS AND
UPDATES CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AFG.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ801-816>818.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ802-803.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ828>830-851-852.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ815.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ820-821-825-826.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ820.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ821.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ822.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ824.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ827.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ827.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ832-834.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ838-842.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802>810-816-817-850-852>856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-814-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
CC
EXTENDED:SCL
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