363
FXAK69 PAFG 090004
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
404 PM AKDT WED OCT 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
COASTAL FLOODING/EROSION, GUSTY WINDS, AND POCKETS OF HEAVY RAIN
CONTINUE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST AS A
STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK NORTHEAST, NOW
CURRENTLY SITUATED NORTH OF THE BERING STRAIGHT IN THE CHUCKCHI
SEA. STRONG SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTHEAST FROM
THE WEST COAST TO THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS
EAST WITH RAIN AND SNOW. MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL CONTINUE IN
THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH THURSDAY AS A COLDER AIRMASS MOVING IN
SUPPORTS COOLER TEMPERATURES TO FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK ALONG
WITH INCREASING SNOW CHANCES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
WITH CUMULATIVE RAIN TOTALS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR EXPECTED. THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE HIGHER
TERRAIN.
- STRONG WINDS IN THE AK RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 65 MPH OR HIGHER
THROUGH WINDY AND ISABEL PASSES THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING, THEN
WEAKENING QUICKLY OVERNIGHT.
- WIND IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE STRONG AS WELL, ESPECIALLY IN THE
WHITE MOUNTAINS AND DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS. GUSTS WILL BE UP TO
35 MPH IN THE TANANA VALLEY, 40 MPH IN THE CHATANIKA AND UPPER
CHENA RIVER VALLEYS, AND UP TO 50 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
THROUGH THURSDAY.
- THERE WILL BE SHOWERS ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SATURDAY WILL BE
MOSTLY DRY, THEN HEAVIER RAIN WILL MOVE BACK IN ON SUNDAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS THE CHUKOTKA
PENINSULA.
- THE LOW WILL WEAKEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA.
PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN AND SOUTH/SOUTHWEST GUSTY WINDS HAVE
MOVED INTO INTO THE YUKON DELTA/LOWER YUKON VALLEY, ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND NORTON SOUND.
- RAIN AND WIND WILL INCREASE THIS EVENING IN KOTZEBUE SOUND
AND SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA COAST.
- THERE WILL BE A PROLONGED PERIOD OF WIND GUSTS OF 40 TO 60+
MPH FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHWARD
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE YUKON
DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT.
- THOUGH MOST GUSTS WILL BE CAPPED AROUND 60-65 MPH, SOME
GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 75 MPH, ESPECIALLY IN TYPICAL WINDY
SPOTS/HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE BERING STRAIT REGION, AND YUKON
DELTA.
- COASTAL IMPACTS WILL BE DISCUSSED IN THE "COASTAL HAZARD
POTENTIAL" SECTION. BUT, COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES
ARE ISSUED AND THEY HAVE DETAILS ABOUT THE FLOODING AS WELL. -
THESE CAN BE FOUND AT WEATHER.GOV/AFG
- THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BE A STRONG WARM FRONT THAT WILL BRING
SOUTHEAST WINDS GUSTING TO 50 MPH BEGINNING FRIDAY ACROSS ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE YUKON DELTA THEN MOVING NORTH.
- THIS WILL BRING A PERIOD OF VERY LOW WATER BEFORE WATER RISES
EVEN HIGHER THAN THE CURRENT STORM OVER THE WEEKEND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WINDS WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY EVENING AS WINDS SHIFT
SOUTHWESTERLY AND THEN WESTERLY. THESE WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING
COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS AND SIGNIFICANT EROSION. THESE
CONCERNS ARE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL
SECTION.
- WIDESPREAD SNOW IN THE CENTRAL/WESTERN BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH
SLOPE WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS COULD PERSIST INTO FRIDAY.
- STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IN
ANAKTUVUK PASS AND THE NORTH SLOPE, 5 TO 10 INCHES IN ATIGUN
PASS AND POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF 18 INCHES IN THE WESTERN
BROOKS RANGE NORTH/EAST OF SHUNGNAK.
- THERE WILL ALSO BE VERY STRONG SOUTH WINDS IN ATIGUN PASS WHICH
WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT BLOWING AND/OR DRIFTING SNOW AS WELL
AS VERY LOW VISIBILITY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THE 980 MB LOW OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA CONTINUES TO BRING A BROAD
AREA OF SOUTHERLY WINDS TO WESTERN ALASKA THAT WILL GRADUALLY
DRIFT TO THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST. MOVING INTO TONIGHT, IT WILL
SHIFT MORE TOWARD THE EAST AND MOVE PARALLEL TO THE ARCTIC COAST,
WITH ITS ASSOCIATED WINDS THERE BECOMING WESTERLY. SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN WESTERN ALASKA WILL WEAKEN DURING THIS TIME FRAME AS THE
TRAILING COLD FRONT SHIFTS INLAND, BUT THIS WILL COINCIDE WITH
STRENGTHENING WINDS IN THE BROOKS AND ALASKA RANGES AND IN
ELEVATED AREAS OF THE INTERIOR; WINDS OF AROUND 50 TO 60 MPH AT
850 MB WILL GUST DOWN TO THE SURFACE AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE THE EXTENT OF MIXING NEEDED
IS REDUCED. BY MID-THURSDAY MORNING, THE LOW WEAKENS INTO THE MID
990S MB WHILE SHIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST, BECOMING AN OPEN WAVE AS
IT EXITS THE AREA. PLENTIFUL MOISTURE BEING DRAWN FROM THE OPEN
PACIFIC NORTHWARD WILL YIELD CONTINUING MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE THROUGH MID-LATE WEEK, ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN WHERE OROGRAPHIC INFLUENCES ARE MAXIMIZED.
WIDESPREAD ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF A QUARTER TO HALF OF AN INCH IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE INTERIOR, WITH HIGHER TOTALS IN ELEVATED
AREAS. HEAVY SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH
OBSERVATION DATA INDICATING SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW HAS ALREADY
FALLEN AT SITES SUCH AS ATIGUN PASS.
SEE WEATHER.GOV/AFG FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THE ONGOING AND
FORECASTED HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS STORM.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 THROUGH 3...
COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN PLACE FOR THE COAST
STORM. THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN WARNING/ADVISORY DOESN'T MEAN
"IMPACTFUL/NON-IMPACTFUL". THIS WILL IMPACT EVERY COMMUNITY IN
DIFFERENT WAYS, INCLUDING SIGNIFICANT FLOODING AND/OR SIGNIFICANT
EROSION. WHILE SOME PLACES WON'T SEE "WARNING LEVEL FLOODING"
THERE WILL BE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS TO BEACHES, AIR STRIPS, DUMPS,
AND MORE. PLEASE SEE WEATHER.GOV/AFG FOR THE LATEST UPDATES ON THE
ONGOING AND FORECASTED HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS POWERFUL
STORM.
WE ARE EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT EROSION FOR MANY COMMUNITIES ALONG
THE COAST WITH COASTAL FLOODING LIKELY, ESPECIALLY IN MORE
VULNERABLE LOCATIONS. MOST, IF NOT ALL COMMUNITIES WILL SEE SOME
SORT OF IMPACT WITH THIS CURRENT STORM.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR FORECAST GUIDANCE FOR AN EVEN MORE
POWERFUL STORM MOVING INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA ON SATURDAY AND
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA AND WEST COAST SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.
THIS SECOND STORM IS EXPECTED TO TAKE A TRACK THAT MAY IMPACT MANY
OF THE SAME LOCATIONS THAT ARE OR WILL BE IMPACTED BY TODAY'S AND
TONIGHT'S STORM. PLEASE CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS SECOND AND
POTENTIALLY EVEN MORE POWERFUL STORM.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
THE COLD FRONT MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE WEST COAST WILL BEGIN TO
WEAKEN INTO SATURDAY EVENING BEFORE ANOTHER LOW COMING UP THE
BERING SEA WILL BEGIN TO IMPACT THE WEST COAST SATURDAY EVENING.
THIS LOW WILL BRING STRONG SOUTHERLY WIND GUSTS TO THE WEST COAST,
ALASKA RANGE, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE
THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING MORE COASTAL
FLOODING CONCERNS FOR AREAS ON THE WEST COAST AND IT MAY BE
STRONGER THEN THE ONE HAPPENING NOW. THE INTERIOR SHOULD REMAIN
DRY UNTIL SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE LOW, BRINGING
RAIN THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
A 950MB LOW WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS THE WEST COAST WITH AN
EXTENDED COLD FRONT BRINGING MORE RAIN AND SOUTH/SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST ON TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
WE ARE EXPECTING ANOTHER COASTAL STORM TO IMPACT WESTERN ALASKA
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, WITH ADDITIONAL DETAILS TO COME
INTO FOCUS OVER THE COMING DAYS. THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS
SUPPORTS THE REMNANTS OF TYPHOON HALONG MOVING EAST OFF THE COAST
OF JAPAN INTO THE PACIFIC, BEFORE SHARPLY TURNING NORTH INTO THE
BERING SEA AS IT IS WORKS UP ALONG THE WESTERN EDGE OF A BROAD
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA. STAY TUNED OVER THE
COMING DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION REGARDING THIS STORM.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ801>803-815>818.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ847-849.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ837.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ820.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ821.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ822-827.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ824.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FOR AKZ825.
HIGH WIND WARNING FOR AKZ832-834.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ838-842.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801>803-816-817-850-853-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805>807-809-810-852-855-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ808.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ813-814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-859-861.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ860.
MACKAY
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