818
FXAK69 PAFG 081425
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
525 AM AKST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT OVER THE
ALASKA RANGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE TO
THE ARCTIC COAST, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW IN THIS REGION
THROUGH TONIGHT. SNOW CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE
ALCAN BORDER AND ARCTIC COAST FOR SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
THROUGH SUNDAY UP TO AROUND 1-3" IN THIS CORRIDOR. INCREASING
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO WESTERN ALASKA THIS MORNING WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS AND CLEARER SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL BOUNDARY
LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY
WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW. STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST SNOW CHANCES
WILL BE IN THE YUKON DELTA AND OUT ON ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, WITH
WINDS PEAKING OUT OF THE SE AROUND 20-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-50
MPH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AS SNOW CHANCES BUILD IN TONIGHT
AND LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY. INCREASED WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST
WILL LEAD TO ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE,
HIGHEST AROUND THE YUKON DELTA. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND COLDER
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS CONDITIONS TREND PREDOMINANTLY DRY OUTSIDE OF
VERY ISOLATED SNOW CHANCES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY,
SHIFTING EAST TO ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER FOR SUNDAY. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AROUND 1-3".
- CLOUDY SKIES TODAY WILL GIVE WAY TO CLEARER SKIES TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY, SUPPORTING COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS
CONDITIONS TURN DRY TO START THE WORK WEEK.
- HIGHS THIS WEEKEND IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS. LOWS BELOW ZERO POSSIBLE SUNDAY MORNING.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS DROPPING TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS ESPECIALLY BY MIDWEEK SEE HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS REACHING THE DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- QUIET AND DRY CONDITIONS THIS MORNING WILL GIVE WAY TO A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA LATER TODAY
INTO SUNDAY WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW.
- E/SE WINDS INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND
LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH UP TO GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM
FORCE WINDS EXPECTED OFFSHORE. ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE
NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE ACROSS THE WEST COAST, HIGHEST AROUND THE
YUKON DELTA.
- SNOW CHANCES STEADILY INCREASE FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
YUKON DELTA TONIGHT, SHIFTING NORTH TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA
FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE NORTHWEST COAST REMAINS
PREDOMINANTLY DRY.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS. WARMER CONDITIONS ON ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER OVERALL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE NORTH TO THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, SHIFTING
NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND ARCTIC COAST SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY AROUND
1-3", LOCALLY HIGHER OUT TOWARDS KAKTOVIK.
- SNOW CHANCES ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
SHIFT TO BEING CONFINED TO THE COAST MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS SNOW
CHANCES DIMINISH BY MIDWEEK AS PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS
PREVAIL.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND SINGLE
DIGITS AND TEENS IN THE BROOKS RANGE, WITH LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS
AND TEENS TO BELOW ZERO IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND ARCTIC PLAINS.
TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER EARLY NEXT WEEK. COLDEST SPOTS
ESPECIALLY BY MIDWEEK SEEING HIGHS STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO
WITH LOWS REACHING THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES BUILDING INTO WESTERN ALASKA. MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE ITS PROGRESSION NORTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE TO THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY, WITH
WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED. SNOW CHANCES WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST
TO ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND ARCTIC COAST TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS
CONDITIONS TREND COLDER AND DRIER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. ADDITIONAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY AROUND 1-3", POTENTIALLY LOCALLY
HIGHER IN AREAS THAT SEE MORE PERSISTENT, ORGANIZED SNOW SET UP.
FARTHER WEST, QUIET AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE
WEST COAST THIS MORNING WITH LIGHT WINDS AND ISOLATED OCEAN EFFECT
SNOW SHOWERS. CHANGES ARE ON THE WAY LATER TODAY INTO SUNDAY
HOWEVER AS A STRONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT IN THE BERING SEA SHIFTS EAST INTO THE WEST COAST AND ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND WITH STRONG WINDS AND SNOW. E/SE WINDS WILL
INCREASE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND LATER TODAY
INTO TONIGHT WITH UP TO GALE FORCE TO LOW END STORM FORCE WINDS
EXPECTED OFFSHORE. STRONGEST WINDS AND BEST SNOW CHANCES WILL BE
IN THE YUKON DELTA AND OUT ON ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, WITH WINDS
PEAKING AROUND 20-40 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30-50 MPH THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH SUNDAY AS SNOW CHANCES BUILD IN TONIGHT AND LINGER THROUGH
MONDAY. STRONGEST WINDS WITH THIS EVENT WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE.
ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE ARE EXPECTED LINE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, HIGHEST AROUND THE YUKON DELTA. SNOW
CHANCES STEADILY BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WILL SHIFT NORTH
AND BECOME MORE ISOLATED HEADING TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, AS THE NORTHWEST COAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY
DRY.
HEADING INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE OVER
THE CHUKCHI SEA WILL DRAW IN MUCH COLDER AIR DOWN FROM THE NORTH
AND ACROSS THE MAINLAND AS THE COLDEST AIRMASS FOR MOST
(ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE INTERIOR) SETTLES IN FOR EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE CLEARING SKIES AS A DRIER PATTERN BEGINS
TO ESTABLISH ITSELF, CONTRIBUTING TO NOT ONLY THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES BUT ALSO THE DEVELOPMENT OF AREAS OF DENSE FOG ACROSS
LOWER ELEVATIONS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 AND 2...A STRONG LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA WILL BRING ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE ON
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS WILL BE WITH THE
HIGH TIDE EACH AFTERNOON FROM NUNAM IQUA SOUTH INCLUDING SCAMMON
BAY, HOOPER BAY, AND CHEVAK. WINDS WILL BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE FROM
THE SOUTHEAST, BUT LARGER THAN NORMAL TIDE CYCLES DUE TO THE
RECENT FULL MOON AND THE STRENGTH OF THE STORM WILL BRING IN
ELEVATED WATER. THE STRONGEST WINDS WILL NOT COINCIDE WITH THE
HIGHEST WATER LEVELS, SO SIGNIFICANT WAVE RUN-UP OR COASTAL
FLOODING ARE NOT EXPECTED. A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THIS REGION TO COVER THESE IMPACTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA THROUGH MIDWEEK AS THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO FAR FOR MOST THIS
SEASON BUILDS SETTLES IN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO LOW TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED MID TO LATE WEEK WITH COLDEST SPOTS REACHING THE
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WARMEST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME
WILL BE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHICH IS ALSO WHERE ENSEMBLE
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON SNOW CHANCES
RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE
TO SHOW SEVERAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN
PACIFIC AND BERING SEA FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE
IDEA OF INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AROUND LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD AND ON THE DRIER SIDE NEXT WEEK
FOR OUR REGION AS STORMS GENERALLY FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTHERLY
TRACK. LOOKING TOWARDS NEXT WEEKEND HOWEVER, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE
SHOWING EARLY INDICATION OF STRENGTHENING HIGH PRESSURE IN THE
GULF OF ALASKA AND NORTHEAST PACIFIC WHICH WOULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW
FOR A MORE FAVORABLE STORM TRACK TO START THE FOLLOWING WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802-806.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ803>805-807-815-853-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-806.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ808>812.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857-858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817-850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850-852-856-857.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ859.
MACKAY
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