492
FXAK69 PAFG 091330
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
430 AM AKST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS NORTH THROUGH SOUTHEAST ALASKA AND
WESTERN CANADA TODAY AND MONDAY, SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST TO ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER AND
ARCTIC COAST. DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE
WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR. AS A RESULT, BEST SNOWFALL
ACCUMULATIONS WILL SHIFT NORTHEAST OF FAIRBANKS INTO THE WHITE
MOUNTAINS/YUKON FLATS, ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER, AND ARCTIC COAST
WHERE UP TO AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.
CLEARER SKIES AND DRYING CONDITIONS BUILDING IN THROUGH MIDWEEK
WILL ALSO SUPPORT MUCH COLDER CONDITIONS, AS THE COLDEST AIRMASS
SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR MOST SETTLES IN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA.
FARTHER WEST, A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO
STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA OUT TOWARDS ST. LAWRENCE THIS
MORNING WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH HAVE BEEN OBSERVED. WINDS HERE
WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE LATER TODAY AS THE WIND FIELD EXPANDS
FURTHER NORTH, SUPPORTING BREEZY WINDS ALONG MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST. SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST
TODAY, EXPANDING NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE SEWARD PENINSULA TONIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AROUND 1-3". AN OVERLAP OF
BREEZY WINDS AND SNOW COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES
IN THIS CORRIDOR. AN OVERALL COLDER AND DRIER PATTERN WILL RETURN
FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH BEST SNOW CHANCES MID TO
LATE WEEK EXPECTED ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY AS BEST
CHANCES SHIFT EAST TO ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH AROUND 1-3" FROM
NORTHWAY TO EAGLE.
- CLOUDY SKIES GIVE WAY TO CLEARER SKIES TODAY, SUPPORTING COLDER
TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF DENSE FOG AS CONDITIONS TURN
PREDOMINANTLY DRY FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
- HIGHS TODAY AND MONDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH LOWS
IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO LOWS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- FRONTAL BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO LIFT NORTH ALONG THE WEST COAST,
LEADING TO ELEVATED E/SE WINDS WITH UP TO GALE FORCE WINDS THIS
MORNING FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. ELEVATED
WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST, HIGHEST AROUND THE YK DELTA.
- SNOW CHANCES ALONG THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS
THE NORTHWEST COAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER SOUTH UP TO AROUND 1-3" THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT.
- CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH CLEARER
SKIES SUPPORTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH, AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS. WARMER CONDITIONS ON ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER OVERALL MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH UP
TO AROUND 1-3", LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST
AROUND 3-5".
- NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
STRONGEST FURTHER WEST FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT HOPE.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGION WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.
- HIGHS EARLY THIS WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND
BROOKS RANGE, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO BELOW
ZERO ZERO FURTHER INLAND.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP MOSTLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO LOWS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 975 MB LOW MOVING ONSHORE
INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA AS AN OCCLUDE FRONT EJECTED FROM A 960 MB
LOW IN THE WESTERN BERING SEA CONTINUES ITS PROGRESSION NORTHEAST
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA. MOISTURE FROM THAT LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH THROUGH WESTERN CANADA AND
ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER, SUPPORTING LIGHT SNOW CONTINUING ACROSS
THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR TREND
DRY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT,
HIGHEST ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER FROM NORTHWAY TO EAGLE AROUND 1-3".
ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA, A BROAD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL OCCLUDE INTO
A 980 MB LOW JUST OFFSHORE OF THE YUKON DELTA TODAY, SUPPORTING
ELEVATED WINDS AND SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE WEST COAST. WIND GUSTS
HAVE BEEN OBSERVED UP TO 50 MPH ON ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE
YUKON DELTA, WHICH WILL GRADUALLY LESSEN LATER TODAY AS THE WIND
FIELD EXPANDS TO ENCOMPASS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST WITH BREEZY E/SE
WINDS THROUGH MONDAY. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO PROGRESS NORTH TODAY
INTO TONIGHT, REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AS THE
NORTHWEST COAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY DRY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
FURTHER SOUTH IN THIS CORRIDOR UP TO AROUND 1-3" THROUGH MONDAY
NIGHT. AN OVERLAP OF BREEZY WINDS AND SNOW WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES IN THIS CORRIDOR.
AN OVERALL COLDER AND DRIER PATTERN IS THEN EXPECTED TO RETURN
FOR MUCH OF THIS UPCOMING WEEK, WITH BEST CHANCES FOR SNOW THROUGH
MIDWEEK ALONG THE ARCTIC/WEST COAST AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AS
CONDITIONS TURN PREDOMINANTLY DRY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 AND 2...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS
ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST,
HIGHEST AROUND THE YK DELTA AROUND 1-3 FEET. A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE YK DELTA TO HIGHLIGHT THIS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ACROSS
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND AS THE COLDEST AIRMASS SO
FAR FOR MOST THIS SEASON BUILDS IN. WIDESPREAD SUB ZERO LOW
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH COLDEST SPOTS REACHING THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WARMEST LOCATIONS DURING THIS TIMEFRAME WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA, WHICH IS ALSO WHERE ENSEMBLE MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON SNOW CHANCES RETURNING FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LONG RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SEVERAL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TRACKING THROUGH THE NORTHERN PACIFIC AND
BERING SEA FOR MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK, KEEPING THE IDEA OF
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES AROUND LATER IN THE WEEK. OVERALL,
CONDITIONS LOOK TO REMAIN COLD AND ON THE DRIER SIDE THIS WEEK FOR
OUR REGION AS STORMS GENERALLY FAVOR A FURTHER SOUTHERLY TRACK AS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE ARCTIC.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802-803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804>812-855>858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-806-852-853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812-857-858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ813-859.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-850-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ860.
MACKAY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page