929
FXAK69 PAFG 092320
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
220 PM AKST SUN NOV 9 2025
SYNOPSIS
STRONG OFFSHORE AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS OF THE YD
DELTA, NORTON SOUND, AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT AND INTO TOMORROW. SNOW SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME OF THESE LOCATIONS, AND EXTENDING UP OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
THERE HAVE ALSO BEEN SOME SHOWERS OCCURRING OVER THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE ARCTIC COAST, AS WELL AS WITHIN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE MAINLAND, ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER, ESPECIALLY FROM NORTHWAY TO
EAGLE. AN OVERALL COLDER AND DRIER PATTERN IS GOING TO ESTABLISH
ITSELF OVER THE MAINLAND, WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO INTO THE
SUB-ZEROS FOR A LOT OF THE INTERIOR, NORTH SLOPE/ARCTIC PLAINS, AND
WITHIN THE BROOKS RANGE BEGINNING TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO DROP OFF THROUGHOUT THE WEEK FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH AN
OVERALL CONTINUED DRYING PATTERN AS WELL. THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE
IN THE PROBABILITY OF SNOW BY LATER IN THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE
FOLLOWING WEEKEND, ESPECIALLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE YK DELTA, WEST
COAST, AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- OCCASIONAL LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH THIS EVENING, MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE
MAINLAND, ALONG THE ALCAN BORDER. LIGHT ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH POSSIBLY AN ADDITIONAL AROUND
1-3" FROM NORTHWAY TO EAGLE.
- CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS TURN PREDOMINANTLY DRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD.
- HIGHS MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,
WITH LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO LOWS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, HIGHEST AROUND THE YK DELTA.
- SNOW CHANCES WILL REACH AS FAR NORTH AS THE SEWARD PENINSULA
LATER THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHWEST COAST REMAINS PREDOMINANTLY
DRY. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS FURTHER SOUTH UP TO AROUND 1-3" THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.
- CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH CLEARER
SKIES SUPPORTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH, AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS. WARMER CONDITIONS ON ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER OVERALL MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
UP TO AROUND 1-3", LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE EASTERN ARCTIC
COAST AROUND 3- 5".
- NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
STRONGEST FURTHER WEST FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT HOPE.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGION WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.
- HIGHS EARLY THIS WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND
BROOKS RANGE, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO BELOW
ZERO ZERO FURTHER INLAND.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP MOSTLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE
DIGIT BELOW ZERO LOWS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
A DECAYING WAVE, WITH AN ASSOCIATED OCCLUDED LOW LOCATED OVER THE
BERING SEA, IS CONTINUE TO FILL AND MOVE TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GULF OF ALASKA BY LATER THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN, WHILE ANOTHER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE EJECTS UP INTO THE NORTH
OF THE CHUKCHI SEA. ADDITIONALLY, THERE ARE STILL SOME OF THE
DISPLACED ENERGY WITHIN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THE LOW WELL OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST OVER JUNEAU'S AREA, WHICH HAS PROVIDED SOME ON AND OFF
SNOW FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN MAINLAND, MAINLY ALONG THE ALCAN
BORDER, FROM NORTHWAY TO EAGLE. THIS SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER OFF
GOING INTO TOMORROW AS THE MAJOR SHORTWAVE PROGRESSES FURTHER
EASTWARD AND AWAY FROM THE REGION. AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR MUCH COLDER AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE NORTH AND ESTABLISH ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR, BROOKS RANGE, AND ARCTIC PLAINS, TO
EXPERIENCE SUB-ZERO TEMPERATURES BEGINNING TOMORROW, AND THEN
FURTHER DROPPING OFF THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. AN OVERALL DRIER PATTERN
WILL OCCUR AS THIS ALSO ALLOWS FOR FURTHER CLEARING OF SKIES TO AID
IN TEMPERATURES DROPPING EVEN FURTHER.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 1 AND 2...ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ABOVE
THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST, HIGHEST
AROUND THE YK DELTA AROUND 1-3 FEET, ARE EXPECTED THROUGH TOMORROW.
A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE YK DELTA TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY NIGHT.
BY WEDNESDAY, MOST OF THE REGION WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGH PRESSURE
CONDITIONS, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
ENSEMBLES HAVE CONTINUED TO REVEAL INCREASING PWAT VALUES GOING INTO
THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS THE REGION
MAY BE INFLUENCED MORE BY A STRONGER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
INTO THE BERING SEA, WHICH MAY HELP TO DRAW UP MORE MOISTURE AHEAD
OF IT OVER THE YK DELTA AND ALLOW FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF SNOW FOR
SOME PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, WHILE MOST OF
THE REMAINING CWA REMAINS COLDER AND DRIER.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ801>803.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-850-853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802-803.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-807-812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-810-813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-816-852-856-858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805-807.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ808-809-811-812-855-857>860.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-854-857.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ814.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850-853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
STEWEY
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