509
FXAK69 PAFG 101032
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
132 AM AKST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE GUSTY OFFSHORE WINDS ALONG THE YK-DELTA WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN THROUGHOUT THE EARLY MORNING AS A WEAK LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN NW OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL
SNOWFALL FOR THE YK-DELTA AND NORTON SOUND COASTS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY. A MUCH DRIER PATTERN IS ENSUING OVER THE REST OF THE STATE AS
A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVES UP THE AL-CAN BOARDER. A WEAK DEFORMATION
BAND WILL SETUP ACROSS THE NE ARCTIC COAST ALLOWING FOR SNOWFALL
BETWEEN 2" AND 4" THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. THIS SET-UP ALLOWS FOR
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING IN THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
DRIER CONDITIONS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, SOME LOW-LYING
CLOUDS MAY CONTINUE TO LINGER WITH AN OVERALL TROUGHING PATTERN
CONTINUING ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE STATE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS TURN PREDOMINANTLY DRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD.
- HIGHS TODAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS,
WITH LOWS IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE DIGIT
BELOW ZERO LOWS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- ELEVATED WATER LEVELS ABOVE THE NORMAL HIGH TIDE LINE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, HIGHEST AROUND THE YK DELTA.
- SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE YK-DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, AND NORTON SOUND COASTAL AREAS THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1"
AND 3".
- CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH CLEARER
SKIES SUPPORTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH, AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS. WARMER CONDITIONS ON ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER OVERALL MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH UP
TO AROUND 1-3", LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NE ARCTIC COAST
AROUND 3- 5".
- NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
STRONGEST FURTHER WEST FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT HOPE.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGION WIDE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.
- HIGHS EARLY THIS WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND
BROOKS RANGE, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO BELOW
ZERO ZERO FURTHER INLAND.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP MOSTLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE
DIGIT BELOW ZERO LOWS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
BROAD TROUGHING IS LOOKING TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
STATE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. SOME AREAS WILL SEE A
SLIGHTLY MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN, WHILE OTHER AREAS, MAINLY
OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE, WILL BE BENIGN.
A FEW ORGANIZED LOWS/SHORTWAVES ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN THE OVERALL
TROUGHING. THE FIRST IS CURRENTLY SPINNING, WITH A LOW AROUND
985MB, JUST NORTHWEST OF NUNIVAK ISLAND. THIS LOW WILL REMAIN
FAIRLY STATIONARY, MAYBE SHIFTING SLIGHTLY TO THE EAST THROUGHOUT
TODAY, AS IT CONTINUES TO BRING SNOW SHOWERS TO THE YK-DELTA, ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND NORTON SOUND COASTAL AREAS. THIS LOW WILL
WILL BE SLOWING FILLING IN AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE SOUTH
TONIGHT, JUST WEST OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, TAKING SOME OF THE
ENERGY AWAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN A WEAKER, MORE BROAD LOW ACROSS
THE YK-DELTA TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND THROUGH TUESDAY. A RIDGE WILL
BEGIN MOVING FROM THE EAST, WHICH WILL CAUSE IT TO BECOME
ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION. THIS WILL SET UP FOR THE NEXT
FRONT MOVING UP THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
MAIN PART OF THIS FRONT IS LOOKING TO STAY JUST SE OF THE YK-DELTA
AND CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THE COAST AS HIGHER PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK UP OVER THE BERING.
THE SECOND WEAK SHORTWAVE IS PROGRESSING UP THE AL-CAN BOARDER,
ACTING AS THE MAIN MECHANISM FOR THE LOWER CLOUD BASES ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS LOW WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS ALONG THE BORDER AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. THE LOW WILL
STALL OUT AROUND THE YUKON FLATS BY THIS AFTERNOON, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN OVER THE ARCTIC. AT THE SAME TIME, A 980MB LOW
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA. THIS LOW LOOKS TO
FILL IN RATHER QUICKLY ONCE MAKING LANDFALL OVER THE PANHANDLE
SOMETIME TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL
WORK IN TANDEM TO STRETCH OUT THE SHORTWAVE THAT WILL BE MOVING UP
THE AL-CAN BOARDER. THIS COULD RESULT IN SNOWFALL BETWEEN 2" TO
4" FOR THE FAR NE CORNER OF THE STATE THROUGH THE MID-WEEK. THIS
SETUP WILL ALSO RESULT IN E-NE FLOW ALOFT, WHICH WILL BRING IN
COLDER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE. FOR SOME AREAS ACROSS THE
BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN INTERIOR, THIS WILL RESULT IN HIGH
TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 DEGREES BY THE END OF THE WEEK (FOR THE FIRST
TIME THIS SEASON).
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
GLOBAL MODELS LOOK TO BE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH BROAD
LOW SETTING UP ACROSS THE STATE AND HIGHER PRESSURE OVER THE
BERING. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW E-NE FLOW ACROSS NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE STATE AND ON-GOING SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. A
STRONGER SYSTEM IS LOOKING TO MOVE OVER THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING BY MID-WEEKEND. MODELS ARE NOT IN GREAT AGREEMENT
WITH THE POSITIONING, BUT THE STRENGTH IS LOOKING TO BE AROUND
945MB WITH THE LATEST MODEL RUNS. MODELS ARE LOOKING TO KEEP THE
LOW INT HE SOUTHERN BERING, BUT WILL SWING MOIST, NE MOVING FRONTS
FROM THE KUSKOKWIM TO THE INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
THIS MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES FOR SNOWFALL ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
WITH THE FAVORABLE SW FLOW, ALONG WITH A POTENTIALLY LIGHT WARMING
TREND AS NEXT WEEK BEGINS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ844.
PK...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805-807-816-852-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-855.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805>807.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-812.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ808-809.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ811>813-856>859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-851-858.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
TWOMBLY
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