644
FXAK69 PAFG 102349
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
249 PM AKST MON NOV 10 2025
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT SNOW WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE UNDER AN AREA OF TROUGHING OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE, AS WELL AS ALONG THE NORTH
SLOPE AND FOR PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST, OTHERWISE
CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY DRY AND NOTABLY COLDER FOR MOST OF THE
REGION. THIS COLDER AIR WILL CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE MAINLAND,
WITH SOME LOCATIONS WITHIN THE BROOKS RANGE/ARCTIC PLAINS GETTING
DOWN TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO FOR TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, AND ESPECIALLY WITHIN WIND-
SHELTERED VALLEYS AND WHERE THERE ARE A LACK OF LOW CLOUDS/FOG. THIS
WILL BE THE CAVEAT WHICH MAY HELP TO KEEP SOME LOCATIONS FROM
GETTING NEARLY AS COLD. THE COOLING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, THEN THERE WILL BE A RETURN OF MORE SNOW
SHOWERS BEING POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. A RETURN TO MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- CLEARING SKIES WILL SUPPORT COLDER TEMPERATURES AND AREAS OF
DENSE FOG FOR TONIGHT AS CONDITIONS TURN PREDOMINANTLY DRY FOR
THE WEEK AHEAD.
- LOWS FOR TONIGHT WILL FALL INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND
BELOW ZERO FOR MOST LOCATIONS.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE LOWS DROP
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE YK-DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, AND NORTON SOUND COASTAL AREAS INTO TOMORROW MORNING.
SNOWFALL TOTALS EXPECTED TO BE BETWEEN 1" AND 3".
- CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH CLEARER
SKIES SUPPORTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY ALONG THE WEST COAST OUTSIDE OF
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH, AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS. WARMER CONDITIONS ON ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER OVERALL MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH UP
TO AROUND 1-3", LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NE ARCTIC COAST
AROUND 3- 5".
- NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
STRONGEST FURTHER WEST FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT HOPE.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGION WIDE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.
- HIGHS EARLY THIS WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND
BROOKS RANGE, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO BELOW
ZERO FURTHER INLAND.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP MOSTLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE
DIGIT BELOW ZERO LOWS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE GENERAL TROUGHING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE STATE IS GOING TO
NEARLY STALL OUT OVER THE NORTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE STATE AS IT
MOVES A LITTLE MORE NORTHWARD, AND BECAUSE OF THIS, THERE WILL
LIKELY BE MORE IN THE WAY OF HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST. SOME OF THE GUIDANCE IS ALSO SHOWING THAT THE
ELONGATED MINOR SHORTWAVE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS COULD EXTEND FURTHER
DOWN OVER THE YUKON FLATS, WHICH MAY ALSO HELP TO INCREASE SNOWFALL
TOTALS OVER THIS AREA AS WELL. THERE IS ALSO ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL LOW
THAT WILL BE TRANSITIONING UP AND OVER INTO THE CHUKCHI SEA, WITH A
RIDGE ESTABLISHING ITSELF OVER THE ARCTIC SEA IN ITS WAKE AND THEN
SLOWING PROPAGATING TOWARDS THE EAST AND EVENTUALLY OVER THE
BEAUFORT SEA. AS THIS OCCURS, ALONG WITH THE TROUGHING OVER WESTERN
CANADA REMAINS NEARLY IN PLACE, IT IS GOING TO ALLOW FOR THERE TO BE
MUCH COLDER AIR ADVECTED DOWN FROM THE NORTH AND IT IS GOING TO
CONTINUE TO INFILTRATE THE MAINLAND THROUGHOUT THE WEEK, AS A DRIER
AND COOLER PATTERN SETS UP. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH IT CLEARS WILL
DETERMINE JUST HOW COLD SOME AREAS WILL GET. BY WEDNESDAY, THERE
WILL BE MUCH OF THE INTERIOR LIKELY EXPERIENCING HIGHS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS EITHER ABOVE OR BELOW ZERO, AND LOWS DIPPING DOWN INTO THE
DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITHIN THE WIND-SHELTERED VALLEYS FOR THOSE
THAT REMAIN LOW CLOUD/FOG-FREE. THE OVERALL TREND THROUGH THE MIDDLE
OF THE WEEK IS TO CONTINUE TO COOL FOR MOST AREAS, WHILE REMAINING
RELATIVELY DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE NORTH
SLOPE AND PORTIONS OF THE WEST COAST.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ENSEMBLE SOLUTIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO BE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT
WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE UNDER BROAD TROUGHING MOVING INTO THE
BERING SEA GOING INTO THE LATER PART OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. DEPENDING ON THE TRACK OF AN ASSOCIATED MAJOR SHORTWAVE,
AND IF IT ENDS UP WITH A MORE OF A WESTERLY TRACK TOWARDS THE BERING
STRAIT, THEN IT COULD HAVE MORE IMPACTS FOR OUR REGION AS MORE
MOISTURE IS ADVECTED UP AND EXPANDED OVER THE SOUTHWEST COAST/YK-
DELTA, AND INTO PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR, WITH A SLIGHTLY BETTER
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION, ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST COAST. THE
SOUTHERLY DRAW COULD ALSO HELP TO WARM TEMPERATURES A BIT, WITH
TEMPERATURES RETURNING CLOSER TO THE SEASONAL AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-805-810.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ808-809.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ811.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812-858-859.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ855.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ857.
STEWEY
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