853
FXAK69 PAFG 111200
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
300 AM AKST TUE NOV 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENCE CONTINUES TO HOLD STRONG WITH THIS FORECAST WITH
LITTLE CHANGE TO THE OVERALL PATTERN. A LOW SPINNING OFF THE YK-
DELTA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THEM WITH CHANCES FOR SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGHOUT TODAY. THIS BAND OF ENERGY WILL BECOME
ELONGATED AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM WORKS ITS WAY NE FROM THE SOUTHERN
BERING. THE FRONT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MOVE FAR NE FROM THE YK-DELTA
AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN BUILDING OVER THE INTERIOR WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE NORTH SLOPE WITH COLD
TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS. THIS WILL ALSO KEEP SOME LOW LYING
CLOUDS IN AREAS ACROSS THE INTERIOR. AREAS THAT REMAIN FREE OF
CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO SEE A DROP IN TEMPERATURES OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- CLEARING SKIES AND PREDOMINANTLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
FOR THE WEEK AHEAD.
- HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW SINGLE DIGITS, WITH SOME AREAS STAYING
BELOW 0 DEGREES.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE LOWS DROP
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CHANCES WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE YK-DELTA, ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND, AND NORTON SOUND COASTAL AREAS THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
- CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH CLEARER
SKIES SUPPORTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN LATER TODAY ALONG THE WEST COAST OUTSIDE
OF ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH, AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS. WARMER CONDITIONS ON ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER OVERALL MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- LIGHT SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND EASTERN BROOKS
RANGE TODAY THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH
UP TO AROUND 1-3", LOCALLY HIGHER ACROSS THE NE ARCTIC COAST.
- NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
STRONGEST FURTHER WEST FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT HOPE.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGION WIDE TOMORROW NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
AS A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.
- HIGHS EARLY THIS WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND
BROOKS RANGE, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO BELOW
ZERO FURTHER INLAND.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP MOSTLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE
DIGIT BELOW ZERO LOWS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE BROAD TROUGHING THAT HAS BEEN DOMINATING ACROSS THE STATE IS
LOOKING TO MOVE OUT AND SET UP A MORE BENIGN PATTERN WITH
SCATTERED AREAS OF ENERGY AND LESS PRONOUNCED SYSTEMS. LOOKING
OVER THE WEST COAST, A LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN JUST OFF OF THE COAST
OF THE YK-DELTA. WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE SNOW SHOWERS FOR
THE YK-DELTA THROUGH THROUGHOUT THE DAY. AS THE DAY PROGRESSES,
THIS ENERGY WILL BECOME ELONGATED IN A NW-SE ORIENTATION AS A
RIDGE PUSHES EAST. A SHORTWAVE FEATURE WILL BEGIN TO MOVE NE FROM
THE ALEUTIANS, BEHIND THE NEWLY DEVELOPED ELONGATED BAND. THIS
SHORTWAVE WILL BRING THE NEXT FRONT TO THE YK-DELTA COAST BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE FRONT WILL NOT BE ABLE TO MOVE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AS LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD UP AND MOVE W/SW
FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. THIS LOW THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WILL SET UP E-NE FLOW ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE, INCLUDING
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. THIS WILL ALSO
PROVIDE SCATTERED LOW LYING CLOUDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR AT TIMES,
WHICH MAY LIMIT SOME OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES FROM DEVELOPING.
SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE DALTON HIGHWAY
SUMMITS AND NORTHWEST INTERIOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.
TO ADD ON, AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD UP AND MOVE SW
TOWARDS SIBERIA MID WEEK. THIS, ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
INTERIOR, WILL RESULT IN A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE EAST WINDS OVER
THE NW ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE LISBURNE PENINSULA BY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT AT THE START OF THE
EXTENDED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE STATE.
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE LIKELIHOOD FOR A COASTAL SYSTEM TO
MOVE ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA BY THE
END OF THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER, THE CANADIAN BRINGS THIS SYSTEM
ACROSS THE ALEUTIANS ALMOST 18 HOURS AHEAD OF THE OTHER GLOBAL
MODELS. COMPARING TO PREVIOUS RUNS, ALL OF THE MODELS ARE STILL
HAVING TROUBLE GETTING A HANDLE ON THE EXACT POSITIONING. THIS LOW
WILL BRING THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
CENTRAL INTERIOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
LOOKING FARTHER NORTH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE, ANOTHER LOW WILL BE
MOVING E TO W ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AROUND THE END OF THE
WEEKEND. THE EC STANDS OUT AMONGST OTHERS AS THE FASTER SOLUTION.
THESE TWO LOWS WILL CREATE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS THE WEST
COAST AND NW ARCTIC COAST, BEGINNING SUNDAY AFTERNOON, WITH
POTENTIAL GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ811.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812-813-858-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ857.
TWOMBLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page