267
FXAK69 PAFG 121308
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
408 AM AKST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR CONTINUES TO SEE CLEAR SKIES AND COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH SOME LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG AND LOW LYING
CLOUDS. THE LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE W/SW AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY OVER THE YK-
DELTA, BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPLY
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE YK-DELTA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. THE POSITIONING OF THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE NE FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND NORTHERN
INTERIOR WHICH WILL ALLOW THE COOLING TREND TO CONTINUE. HOWEVER,
SOME LOW LYING CLOUDS AND PATCHY FOG MAY MOVE IN TO SOME LOCALIZED
AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, WHICH MAY LIMIT SOME OF THE TEMPERATURE
DROPS. THE EXTENDED IS CONTINUES TO SHOW THE POTENTIAL FOR
CONCERNS AS CONFIDENCE REMAINS ELEVATED FOR A STORM IN THE BERING.
BUT UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WIDESPREAD WITH THE TRACK OF THE REMNANTS
OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM THAT WILL BE MOVING TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT TODAY FROM THE DALTON HWY SUMMITS TO SOUTH SOUTH
SLOPES OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- CLEARER SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT COLDER TEMPERATURES. A
PATCH OF CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY,
WHICH MAY LIMIT THE DROP OF THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES.
- HIGHS WILL BE GENERALLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO, AND LOWS WILL BE FALLING INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLES AND
TEENS FOR MOST LOCATIONS, AND POSSIBLY NEGATIVE TWENTIES FOR A
FEW LOCATIONS.
- TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER LATER IN THE WEEK, WITH HIGHS DROPPING
TO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS ESPECIALLY BY MIDWEEK SEE HIGHS
STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS REACHING THE DOUBLE DIGITS
BELOW ZERO.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE LIFTING NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHWEST
ALASKA TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD CHANCES OF SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
- CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR WITH CLEARER
SKIES SUPPORTING AREAS OF DENSE FOG/LOW STRATUS AND COLD
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY CONDITIONS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE WEST COAST, WITH
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS FURTHER SOUTH, AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT
BUILDING INTO SOUTHWEST ALASKA TOMORROW INTO THURSDAY WITH
ANOTHER ROUND OF SNOW AND BREEZY WINDS.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE
AND BELOW ZERO AND TEENS. WARMER CONDITIONS ON ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S AND 30S WITH LOWS IN THE 20S.
TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER OVERALL MIDWEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH MIDWEEK,
STRONGEST FURTHER WEST FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT HOPE.
- DRY CONDITIONS RETURN REGION WIDE TODAY AS A COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS SETTLES IN OVERHEAD.
- HIGHS EARLY THIS WEEK IN THE TEENS AND 20S ACROSS THE ARCTIC
COAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS FOR THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND
BROOKS RANGE, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS TO BELOW
ZERO FURTHER INLAND.
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO BUILD IN MID TO LATE WEEK AS
HIGHS DROP MOSTLY TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH
WIDESPREAD LOWS BELOW ZERO. COLDEST SPOTS COULD SEE DOUBLE
DIGIT BELOW ZERO LOWS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
NOT MUCH CHANGE TO TALK ABOUT WITH THE SHORT-TERM PATTERN. BROAD
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS MAJORITY OF THE STATE, WITH A COUPLE
OF DISTINCTIVE FEATURES. THE FIRST IS A 525 DECAMETER, UPPER-
LEVEL LOW OVER THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE DEEPENING AS IT MOVES W/SW. A LESS DEFINED "BLOB" OF
ENERGY CONTINUES TO ROTATE OVER THE NORTON SOUND. THIS FEATURE
WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS THE LOW FROM THE BROOKS RANGE
CONTINUES TO FEED COLD AIR ACROSS THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND DOWN THE
WEST COAST. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL MERGE INTO A SINGLE, STRONGER
LOW BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE SHOWING IT TO SET UP IN THE
SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO
HAVE MUCH MOVEMENT UNTIL FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY WHEN IT BEGINS
TO SHIFT E-SE WITH A RIDGE BUILDING IN OVER THE BERING AND A
STRENGTHENING ARCTIC HIGH.
THIS OVERALL SETUP WILL CONTINUE THE COOLING TREND ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE AND THE INTERIOR. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE YK-DELTA AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN INTERIOR. A
STRONGER PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL ALSO FORM OVER THE NW ARCTIC COAST
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING RIDGE OVER THE
ARCTIC. SOME LOW LYING CLOUDS MAY SNEAK IN AT TIMES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR WHICH WILL HELP WARM THE TEMPERATURES, SLIGHTLY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THE LOW THAT WILL HAVE BEEN SITTING OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE WESTERN INTERIOR WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SE AND OVER THE ALASKA
RANGE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THIS IS DUE TO A BUILDING
RIDGE IN THE BERING, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY TO SET UP IN THE SOUTHERN BERING. AS OF RIGHT NOW, THERE IS
A GREAT DEAL OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE POSITIONING AND STRENGTH AS
MODELS ARE SHOWING VARIOUS SOLUTIONS. ONE OF NOTE, IS THE EC
SHOWING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FUNG-WONG WRAPPING AROUND
THE MAIN LOW, STRENGTHENING WITH THE NEGATIVE TILT, COMING ACROSS
THE ALEUTIANS, AND MOVING UP THE WEST COAST.
WITH THE LATEST RUNS, THE EC IS THE ONLY MODEL THAT IS BRINGING
THESE REMNANTS UP THE BERING. THAT SAID, CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
IN THE STORM'S TRACK AND THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY INCREASED WATER
LEVELS FROM HOOPER BAY NORTHWARD. HOWEVER THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE
IN A STORM OUT IN THE BERING, BRINGING IN GUSTY WINDS AND A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW ALONG THE YUKON DELTA COAST. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL RUNS AS THOSE THESE WILL BE MOST
CRITICAL IN DETERMINING THE LIKELY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801-802.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-807-808-855>857.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ811.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ812>814-858-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ857-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
TWOMBLY
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