481
FXAK69 PAFG 122325
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
225 PM AKST WED NOV 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG, LOW STRATUS, AND
FLURRIES. ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER FOR THE WEST COAST,
SOUTHWEST ALASKA, AND ARCTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY AS A LOW MOVING
WEST THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE MERGES WITH A SHORTWAVE HEADING INTO
THURSDAY. THIS SETUP WILL SUPPORT BROAD NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS
THE ARCTIC PLAINS INTO THE INTERIOR, ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO
SEE AN OVERALL COOLING TREND HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. COLDEST
AREAS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE ZERO WITH LOWS IN THE DOUBLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO. WIDESPREAD SUBZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA BY THE WEEKEND. GIVEN A TIGHTENING
GRADIENT ALONG THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COAST THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY,
STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED OUT TOWARDS POINT HOPE. LOOKING AHEAD,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE SUPPORTS A SERIES OF STORMS MOVING INTO THE
BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK, HOWEVER UNCERTAINTY REMAINS HIGH ON
THE TRACK AND IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. STAY TUNED OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG AND FLURRIES.
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH LOWS IN
SINGLE AND DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ISOLATED SNOW
CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG AND FLURRIES.
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE AND DIGITS AND TEENS INLAND TO TEENS AND 20S
ALONG THE COAST, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO INLAND TO TEENS AND 20S ALONG THE COAST. COLDEST SPOTS
REACHING THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO INLAND.
- TEMPERATURE TREND COLDER THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF STORMS IN THE
BERING SEA SHIFT NORTHEAST. DETAILS AND IMPACTS UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT, BUT STAY TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
- NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, STRONGEST FURTHER WEST FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT HOPE.
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO IN THE BROOKS
RANGE TO TEENS AND 20S ALONG THE COAST, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
EARLY AFTERNOON SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WEAK LOW MOVING WEST
THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE AS A SHORTWAVE ALONG THE WEST COAST
SHIFTS NORTHEAST, SUPPORTING ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS AS CONDITIONS
REMAIN PREDOMINANTLY COLD AND DRY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. GIVEN
THIS SETUP, NORTHEAST FLOW WILL PREVAIL REGION WIDE, ALLOWING FOR
TEMPERATURES TO SEE A BROAD COOLING TREND HEADING INTO THE
WEEKEND. WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST/ARCTIC COAST
INCREASING THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY, BREEZY NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
PERSIST IN THESE CORRIDORS, STRONGEST WINDS AROUND POINT HOPE
WHERE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PEAK AROUND 30-40 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO
40-50 MPH THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND. ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL WITH LOCALIZED
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND FOG LEADING TO FLURRIES AT TIMES, IN
ADDITION TO POTENTIALLY HELPING TO WARM TEMPERATURES UP SLIGHTLY.
AS A COLDER AIRMASS SETTLES IN ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA
HEADING INTO THE START OF THE WEEKEND, WIDESPREAD SUBZERO
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH COLDEST AREAS STRUGGLING TO SEE
HIGHS ABOVE ZERO AS LOWS DROP TO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A SERIES OF STORM SYSTEMS IN THE BERING
SEA AND NORTHERN PACIFIC TRACK SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST INTO ALASKA.
THE FIRST LOW WILL TRACK EAST THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE GULF
OF ALASKA FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS
SOUTHWEST ALASKA EAST ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE AND SOUTHERN
INTERIOR. THE SECOND SYSTEM WILL BE A LOW BUILDING INTO THE
WESTERN BERING SEA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE AMPLIFIES OVER THE NORTHERN ALASKA. THE POSITION OF THIS
LOW AND A RIDGE FURTHER EAST WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A
STRONGER SYSTEM TO WORK ITS WAY IN BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES,
FAVORING A TRACK UP THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. WHILE THE TRACK AND DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN
AS THIS POINT, THE OVERALL MODEL CONSENSUS CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
POTENTIAL REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM FUNG-WONG BUILDING INTO OUR
WESTERN CWA. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL RUNS AS THOSE THESE WILL BE MOST CRITICAL IN DETERMINING
THE LIKELY TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH THESE SYSTEMS
WILL LEAD TO WARMING TEMPERATURES STARTING EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
MOISTURE BEGINS TO BUILD BACK INTO NORTHERN ALASKA. STAY TUNED
OVER THE COMING DAYS AS WE NARROW DOWN THE DETAILS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-807-812>814-858-859.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ808.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851-857-858.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ855.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ857.
MACKAY
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