863
FXAK69 PAFG 131254
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
354 AM AKST THU NOV 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
NOT MANY CHANGES OF NOTE FOR THE OVERALL FORECAST. A LOW WILL
CONTINUE TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE BROOKS RANGE AND MERGE WITH A
SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTON SOUND. AN ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE
DEVELOPING WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR GUSTY WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AROUND
THE LISBURNE PENINSULA, BEGINNING TONIGHT. COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS
ARE LOOKING TO CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE NEXT BEST CHANCE FOR SNOWFALL IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE
AROUND THE END OF THE WEEKEND AS A SERIES OF FRONTS MOVE IN FROM
THE SW. THIS WILL ALSO ALLOW THE POTENTIAL FOR A SLIGHT WARM UP AS
THE NEXT WEEK BEGINS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG AND FLURRIES.
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO WITH LOWS IN
SINGLE AND DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW, WITH TEMPERATURES HOLDING STEADY
OR COOLING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK AS ISOLATED SNOW
CHANCES RETURN LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK, WITH LOCALIZED AREAS OF FOG AND DIMINISHING
FLURRIES.
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE AND DIGITS AND TEENS INLAND TO TEENS AND 20S
ALONG THE COAST, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO INLAND TO TEENS AND 20S ALONG THE COAST. COLDEST SPOTS
REACHING THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO INLAND.
- TEMPERATURE TREND COLDER THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF SOUTHWEST
FLOW RETURNING SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS A SERIES OF STORMS IN THE
BERING SEA SHIFT NORTHEAST. DETAILS AND IMPACTS UNCERTAIN THIS
FAR OUT, BUT STAY TUNED OVER THE COMING DAYS FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE BROOKS
RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK, WITH ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST.
- NORTHEAST WINDS PREVAIL ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, STRONGEST FURTHER WEST FROM UTQIAGVIK TO POINT HOPE.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AROUND THE LISBURNE PENINSULA,
BEGINNING LATE THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH.
- HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO IN THE BROOKS
RANGE TO TEENS AND 20S ALONG THE COAST, WITH LOWS IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO TO DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE ARCTIC PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. TEMPERATURES TREND COLDER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST, PERSISTENCE CONTINUES TO HOLD ON
STRONG. SATELLITE IMAGERY IS CURRENTLY FOLLOWING THE LOW OVER THE
CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE. THIS LOW WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE W/SW TOWARD
THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND MERGE WITH THE SHORTWAVE, CURRENTLY NE OF
ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. AT THE SAME TIME, AN
ARCTIC HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD AND PUSH SLIGHTLY SOUTH TOWARD
THE NW ARCTIC COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL CREATE A STRONGER
GRADIENT AROUND THE LISBURNE PENINSULA, ALONG FOR POTENTIAL WIND
GUSTS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH THROUGH THE START OF THE WEEKEND.
A BAND OF ENERGY WILL STRETCH, FROM THE MERGED LOW, FROM THE
NORTON SOUND TO SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR ON
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY MORNING. NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED WITH THIS AS
THE MID LAYERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY FROM THE PREVAILING
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE. THE
MERGED LOW WILL THEN BEGIN TO SHIFT E/SE ACROSS THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM AND OVER THE ALASKA RANGE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WITH
THIS, FLURRIES CANNOT BE RULED OUT FOR AREAS ALONG THE TANANA
VALLEY.
A RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BUILD UP OVER THE WEST COAST AS THE LOW
MOVES OVER THE ALASKA RANGE, AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM THAT IS
EXPECTED TO SET UP IN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS WILL
CREATE A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE WEST COAST WHERE
WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY GUST BETWEEN 50 AND 60 MPH. MODELS ARE
ALSO BEGINNING TO SHOW SIGNS OF ANOTHER SYSTEM WORKING ITS WAY
SOUTH INTO THE NE ARCTIC COAST SOMETIME SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.
HOWEVER, THERE IS NOT VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS FEATURE AS OF
YET.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A MORE ACTIVE PATTERN IS CONTINUING TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST BY
THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. ALL OF THE GLOBAL
MODELS REMAIN IN AGREEMENT WITH A LOW WRAPPING ENERGY ACROSS THE
ALEUTIANS AND INTO THE BERING. ENSEMBLES CONTINUE TO SHOW A GREAT
SPREAD IN POSSIBLE OUTCOMES. WITH THE LATEST RUN OF THE EC
DETERMINISTIC, THE REMNANTS OF FUNG-WONG THAT WAS PREVIOUSLY
MOVING UP THE WEST COAST IS NOW GETTING WRAPPED BACK INTO THE
MAIN LOW. THIS WILL KEEP IT SOUTH OF ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THE GFS
HAS BEEN SHOWING THE SAME PATTERN WITH THE LAST FEW MODEL RUNS.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN GUSTY WINDS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
BERING SEA WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS AROUND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND
THE YK- DELTA COAST. WINDS COULD POTENTIALLY GUST UP TO 60 MPH.
THE SERIES OF FRONTS THAT MOVE INLAND FROM THE SW WILL BRING
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL, WITH A CHANCE OF A WINTRY MIX OVER THE
SOUTHWEST PORTION OF THE YK-DELTA. TO ADD ON, THE GUSTY WINDS MAY
PRODUCE LOCALIZED AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES. THE
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE INTERIOR, BRINGING
WARMER TEMPERATURES AND THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ801.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ802-803-806-850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ804-810>813-856>859.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ807.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ808-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-851-858-859.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ813.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ854.
TWOMBLY
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page