044
FXAK69 PAFG 291400
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
500 AM AKST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN
ALASKA STARTING TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AS A SERIES OF LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND BERING SEA SUPPORT THE RETURN OF WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION CHANCES AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. WARMER AIR
OVERRUNNING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF
RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR AND YUKON/KUSKOKWIM DELTA SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH
LOWER BUT NONZERO CHANCES EXTENDING FURTHER NORTHEAST TOWARDS
FAIRBANKS. EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, AN ARCTIC FRONT WORKING
SOUTHEAST FROM THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE WILL MEET THIS
MOIST AIRMASS IN PLACE OVER THE INTERIOR, RESULTING IN INCREASED
CONFIDENCE ON WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, PARTICULARLY
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE CENTRAL BROOKS
RANGE AND IN THE ALASKA RANGE. THIS HEAVIEST SNOW CORRIDOR ACROSS
THE INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER THE COMING DAYS
REGARDING AMOUNTS AND PLACEMENT. AS THIS ARCTIC FRONT PROGRESSES
SOUTHEAST, A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS WILL SUPPORT A CHANGEOVER TO ALL
SNOW BY MIDWEEK AS SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO SHIFT SOUTHEAST
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. BEHIND THESE SNOW CHANCES, A MUCH COLDER AND
DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK, WITH THE
RETURN OF WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES, THE
COLDEST SO FAR FOR MOST THIS SEASON.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND,
WITH INCREASING SNOW CHANCES LATER TODAY INTO TONIGHT IN THE
ALASKA RANGE, EXPANDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR STARTING
SUNDAY.
- WETTER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION STARTS AS LIGHT SNOW, BECOMING HEAVIER AND WETTER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- THE WARMEST TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT A
WINTRY MIX IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE ON
MIXED PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS. TEMPERATURES TURN COLDER FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, SUPPORTING A CHANGEOVER BACK TO ALL SNOW.
- TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK, PEAKING
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S/30S.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BUILDS IN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, FINISHING OUT THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, THE COLDEST FOR MOST SO FAR
THIS SEASON.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN OUT OF THE SOUTH TODAY WITH ISOLATED
SNOW SHOWERS, AHEAD OF INCREASING SNOW CHANCES TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY FOR THE SEWARD PENINSULA, YUKON DELTA, AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.
- WARMER AIR OVERRUNNING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO
CHANCES OF RAIN, FREEZING RAIN, AND A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, LOWER YUKON, AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM DELTAS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT.
- N/NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, TRENDING
WARMER INTO THE 20S/30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
BEGINS BUILDING IN TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW ARCTIC COAST
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BUILDS IN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, FINISHING OUT THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, THE COLDEST FOR MOST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. INCREASING SNOW CHANCES BUILD IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT BUILDS IN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
- THIS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE, MEETING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR,
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE NORTH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD 965 MB LOW CENTERED
SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS, WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
EXTENDING UP THROUGH THE THE EASTERN GULF OF ALASKA NORTH TO THE
ARCTIC OCEAN. THIS RIDGE WILL HELP SET THE STAGE FOR SUPPORTING
ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE EXTENDING ALL THE WAY DOWN FROM NORTH
OF HAWAII TO MOVE UP INTO ALASKA, AS A SERIES OF LOWS AND FRONTS
WORK TO SUPPORT THE RETURN OF WETTER AND WARMER WEATHER TO
NORTHERN ALASKA. THE FIRST PUSH OF ORGANIZED MOISTURE WILL LIFT
NORTH INTO OUR CWA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND MONDAY, AS REINFORCING
LOWS AND FRONTS WORK TO KEEP PRECIPITATION CHANCES GOING THROUGH
THE WORK WEEK.
THIS SURGE OF SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH WILL ALLOW 850 MB TEMPERATURES
TO CLIMB ABOVE FREEZING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
TOWARDS THE YUKON AND KUSKOKWIM DELTAS. WARMER AIR OVERRUNNING
COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO CHANCES OF RAIN, FREEZING
RAIN, AND A WINTRY MIX IN THIS CORRIDOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
LOWER, NONZERO CHANCES OF A WINTRY MIX DO EXTEND FURTHER NORTHEAST
TOWARDS FAIRBANKS, WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED OVER
SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. LOOKING NORTH, A LOW TRACKING SOUTHEAST OVER
THE ARCTIC OCEAN EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK WILL DRIVE AN ARCTIC COLD
FRONT ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST AS A COLDER
AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDS IN OUT OF THE NORTH. THE COMBINATION OF
THESE SYSTEMS/FRONTS WILL BE THE MAIN DRIVERS OF OUR WEATHER
PATTERN NEXT WEEK, WITH THE DETAILS FURTHER COMING INTO FOCUS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR OUT TOWARDS THE YUKON/KUSKOKWIM DELTAS,
WHICH MAY ULTIMATELY NEED TO BE EXPANDED TO CAPTURE HEAVIER SNOW
POTENTIAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOLLOWING THAT INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE SUPPORTS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW GETTING
WRAPPED AROUND THAT BROAD LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SETUP WILL
SUPPORT A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF MOISTURE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. WITH COLDER AIR BUILDING IN OUT OF THE NORTH WITH THE
ARCTIC FRONT COMBINING WITH MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW, THIS WILL
SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL FOR A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO
DEVELOP DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. MIXED
PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY FURTHER
SOUTH, WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES HELPING TO TRANSITION
PRECIPITATION TYPE OVER TO ALL SNOW FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. AS
THAT COLD FRONT PROGRESSES SOUTHEAST LATER IN THE WEEK, BEST SNOW
CHANCES WILL SHIFT TO BEING ACROSS THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR TO
FINISH OUT THE WORK WEEK AS A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS
ENCOMPASSES NORTHERN ALASKA.
GIVEN THE SCALE AND MAGNITUDE OF THESE FEATURES AT PLAY,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER END ON HOW THESE SYSTEMS WILL
INTERACT, BUT AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION WILL BE
THE MAIN THINGS WE WILL BE MONITORING OVER THE COMING DAYS.
DEPENDENT ON THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST, WE COULD
ALSO BE LOOKING AT AREAS OF HIGH WINDS. THE LATEST 0/6Z ENSEMBLE
AND DETERMINISTIC MODELS HAS SHOWN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT TOWARDS
CONTINUITY, IN AGREEMENT WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF SNOW
WHERE UPWARDS OF 12"+ WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE GRADIENT AND LOCATION
OF WHERE THIS SETUP WILL BE WILL BE CLOSE TO WATCH, AS SLIGHT
SHIFTS WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE WHERE THESE HIGHER TOTALS ARE
ESTABLISHED.
OVERALL, CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS AS DETAILS COME INTO FOCUS. HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL
MOVE EAST OVER ALASKA LATER NEXT WEEK AND QUICKLY PUSH OUT ANY
LINGERING MOISTURE AS TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROP. WIDESPREAD DOUBLE
DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BUILD IN AND WILL
BOTTOM OUT AROUND 20 TO 40 BELOW ZERO, THE COLDEST FOR MOST SO
FAR THIS SEASON.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-854-856-857.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ806-850-851-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-850-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ853.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
MACKAY
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