252
FXAK69 PAFG 300015
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
315 PM AKST SAT NOV 29 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AHEAD
OF SIGNIFICANT COOLING THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. HEAVY
TO MODERATE SNOWFALL EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE NORTHERN INTERIOR. AREAS OF WINTRY MIX IN THE
LOWER YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM EXPAND TUESDAY NORTH AND EAST
TOWARDS THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. WINTER HAZARD PRODUCTS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- CLOUDS CONTINUE TO BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS WEEKEND,
WITH INCREASING SNOW CHANCES LATER SATURDAY AND OVERNIGHT IN
THE ALASKA RANGE, EXPANDING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE INTERIOR
STARTING SUNDAY.
- WETTER AND WARMER WEATHER RETURNS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
PRECIPITATION STARTS AS LIGHT SNOW, BECOMING HEAVIER AND WETTER
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, AS SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
- SOME AREAS OF WINTRY MIX BECOME POSSIBLE TUESDAY SOUTHWEST OF
FAIRBANKS. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT AND MIXED WITH
SNOW, LIMITING POTENTIAL IMPACTS.
- TEMPERATURES PEAK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 20S
AND 30S.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TUESDAY
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL KEEP AREAS JUST NORTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE SLIGHTLY DRIER LIMITING SNOW AND ICE
ACCUMULATIONS SLIGHTLY.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BUILDS IN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, FINISHING OUT THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED, THE COLDEST FOR MOST SO FAR
THIS SEASON.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- INCREASING CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH SATURDAY AHEAD OF
INCREASING SNOW CHANCES OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY FOR THE SEWARD
PENINSULA, YUKON DELTA, AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
- WARMER AIR OVERRUNNING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL LEAD TO
WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANCE OF RAIN OR FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST INTERIOR, LOWER YUKON, AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS
SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHTER ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW AND ICE SUNDAY AND MONDAY,
GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW AND LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES OF
ICE.
- HEAVIER ACCUMULATIONS OF ICE AND SNOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE AS WELL AS
ANOTHER 0.10 INCHES OF ICE.
- N/NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND 20S CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY, TRENDING
WARMER INTO THE 20S/30S TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT
BEGINS BUILDING IN TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW ARCTIC COAST
WITH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
- A MUCH COLDER AIRMASS BUILDS IN STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY, FINISHING OUT THE WEEK. WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW
ZERO TEMPERATURES EXPECTED, THE COLDEST FOR MOST SO FAR THIS
SEASON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES PEAK THIS WEEKEND WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS. INCREASING SNOW CHANCES BUILD IN SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS AN ARCTIC FRONT BUILDS IN OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST.
- THIS FRONT SHIFTS SOUTHEAST EARLY NEXT WEEK OVER THE BROOKS
RANGE, MEETING WITH A MOIST AIRMASS OVER THE INTERIOR,
SUPPORTING CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES AND BREEZY WINDS IN THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS WILL BUILD IN OUT OF THE NORTH
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK BEHIND THIS FRONT, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD
DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES BY MID TO LATE WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SATURDAY, A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE PERSISTS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND A LARGE 518
DECAMETER LOW SLOWLY MOVES TOWARDS THE ALEUTIANS FROM THE NORTH
PACIFIC. THE RIDGE WEAKENS AS THE LOW MOVES NEARER. THIS LOW IS
BEING FUELED BY AN ATMOSPHERIC RIVER THAT IS REACHING FAR TO THE
SOUTH, ALMOST REACHING 20N. THIS ATMOSPHERIC RIVER IS SPLIT FROM
THE MAIN LOW AT A TRIPLE POINT LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WHICH
KEEPS THE WARMEST AND WETTEST CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTHEAST. ENOUGH
WARM, MOIST AIR HAS MADE IT TO THIS MAIN LOW HOWEVER THAT
SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
A FRONT ROTATING AROUND THE MAIN LOW REACHES THE LOWER
YUKON OVERNIGHT SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE
SNOW WHICH IS EXPECTED TO CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY MIX AS
TEMPERATURES INCREASE SUNDAY. SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THIS FRONT
FURTHER EAST AS IT MOVES OVER THE ALASKA RANGE, PRODUCING SOME
LIGHT SNOWFALL THROUGH THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR SUNDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH MONDAY. THIS FIRST FRONT IS RELATIVELY WEAK AND MOST OF
THE PRECIPITATION FROM IT WILL BE LIGHT, GENERALLY 1 TO 3 INCHES
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR AND 2 TO 5 INCHES ALONG
THE LOWER YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM. ICE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THIS
FIRST FRONT WILL BE MOSTLY LIMITED TO THE LOWER YUKON AND UPPER
KUSKOKWIM WITH ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY LESS THAN 0.10 INCHES OF
ICE. SOME LIGHT GLAZES OF ICE ARE POSSIBLE FURTHER NORTH AND EAST,
BUT A STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WILL MAKE ICE ACCUMULATIONS
MORE DIFFICULT FURTHER NORTH.
A SECOND, HEAVIER, WAVE OF PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS ANOTHER LOW ROTATES AROUND THE MAIN LOW NEAR
THE ALEUTIANS. AS IT REACHES THE SOUTHERNMOST PARTS OF THIS
ROTATION IT PICKS UP ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AND EFFECTIVELY RE-
ESTABLISHES THE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER. THIS LOW THEN CONTINUES ITS
ROTATION AROUND THE MAIN LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY. MODEL
AGREEMENT HAS SIGNIFICANTLY IMPROVED REGARDING HOW THESE TWO LOWS
INTERACT WHICH HAS GREATLY INCREASED FORECAST CONFIDENCE. THIS
SECOND WAVE IS WARMER AND WETTER THAN THE FIRST BRINGING A LARGER
AREA OF WINTRY MIX FURTHER INLAND AS WELL AS MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE. STORM TOTAL SNOW FOR THE INTERIOR IS
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM AROUND 3 TO 6 INCHES ON THE PERIPHERY OF
THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND UP TO 12 INCHES IN THE CENTER
OF THE BAND. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE HIGHEST IN THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM AND LOWER YUKON RIVER VALLEYS WITH 0.1 TO 0.2 TENTHS OF
TOTAL ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE. THIS ICE WOULD BE MIXED WITH SNOW AND
HARD TO ACCURATELY MEASURE HOWEVER. LESSER ACCUMULATIONS OF A
TRACE TO A FEW HUNDREDTHS ARE POSSIBLE NORTH AND EAST OF THAT
AREA WITH SLIM TO NO CHANCE OF ICE NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRBANKS
TO GALENA.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, THE MAIN BAND OF PRECIPITATION FROM THE SECOND WAVE OF
MOISTURE WILL BE WEAKENING OVER THE INTERIOR. HIGHER PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST CENTERED ON A STRONG 545 DECAMETER
UPPER LEVEL HIGH IN EASTERN SIBERIA THAT MOVES NORTHEAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. AS THIS PRESSURE BUILDS THE LOW NEAR
THE ALEUTIANS WEAKENS AND FADES INTO A TROUGH PATTERN OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ALASKA. THESE FEATURES CAUSE THE BAND OF PRECIPITATION
OVER THE INTERIOR TO RAPIDLY DIMINISH WEDNESDAY FROM THE NORTHWEST
AS HIGHER PRESSURE SQUEEZES ITS REMNANTS AGAINST THE ALASKA RANGE.
COLD, DRY, AND MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS FOLLOW THURSDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE IN TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY DROPPING INTO
THE NEGATIVES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-832>835-837>847-849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-804-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ805.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-810-857.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-816-817-851-853-854-856-
857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850-853.
STOKES
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