722
FXAK69 PAFG 301410
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
510 AM AKST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER IS EXPECTED STARTING TODAY AND
CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA, AHEAD
OF A COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING IN LATER IN THE WEEK. A
SERIES OF SYSTEMS IN THE NORTHERN PACIFIC WILL WORK TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH AREAS OF A WINTRY MIX
AND FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND LOWER
YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS
EXPECTED. SNOWFALL OVERALL WILL REMAIN LIGHT INITIALLY,
TRANSITIONING OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR TO
THE CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE. A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORIES, WINTER STORM WARNINGS, AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS
ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS CORRIDOR. AN ENHANCED PRESSURE GRADIENT
ALONG THE WEST COAST AND AT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND TODAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO LEAD TO GUSTY N/NE WINDS. UNDER THE INCREASING
INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE STARTING THURSDAY, MUCH COLDER AND DRY
CONDITIONS WILL RETURN REGIONWIDE TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
TODAY THROUGH MONDAY, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
- WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AS LIGHT SNOW BECOMES HEAVIER AND WETTER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND 3-6" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6-10" NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS. LOWEST
TOTALS AROUND 1-3" REMAIN CONFINED TO THE MIDDLE/UPPER TANANA
VALLEY.
- AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS COLDER AIR THE SURFACE, A LIGHT WINTRY
MIX AND FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR
REACHING AS FAR NORTH AS FAIRBANKS.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF ISABEL PASS ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
TODAY AND MONDAY, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WITH DRIEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST AND SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA.
- WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AS LIGHT SNOW BECOMES HEAVIER AND WETTER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG A CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA INTO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AROUND 6-10" IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LIGHTER TOTALS FURTHER NORTH
AND ALSO SOUTH CLOSER TO THE ALASKA RANGE.
- AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS COLDER AIR THE SURFACE, A WINTRY MIX AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR,
LOWER YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05-0.15" EXPECTED.
- N/NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- OCEAN EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN SEWARD
PENINSULA AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, WITH GUSTY WINDS LEADING TO
AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL
LEAD TO COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST,
EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH LATER IN THE WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN A COOLING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK WITH AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS EAST THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
- COLDER AIR FURTHER NORTH WILL MEET A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
INTERIOR, SUPPORTING HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE AROUND 1-3" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE BROOKS
RANGE AROUND 3-5".
- BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IN BETWEEN TWO RIDGE
OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NE/NW PACIFIC. THIS SETUP WILL WORK TO
SUPPORT A MULTI-DAY PATTERN CHANGE ACROSS ALASKA AS WARMER AND
WETTER CONDITIONS LIFT NORTH THROUGH MIDWEEK. THE MAIN TROUGH IS
TAPPING INTO ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE REACHING ALMOST DOWN TO
20N JUST NORTH OF HAWAII, INDICATIVE OF THE WARMER AND WETTER
AIRMASS THIS SYSTEM IS TAPPING INTO. OVERALL MODEL AGREEMENT
CONTINUES TO GRADUALLY IMPROVE WITH EACH SUBSEQUENT RUN, HELPING
TO INCREASE CONFIDENCE ON IMPACTS EXPECTED THROUGH MIDWEEK.
A FRONT LIFTING NORTH TODAY INTO MONDAY WILL SUPPORT WIDESPREAD
LIGHT SNOW RETURNING TO SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE INTERIOR NORTH TO
THE ARCTIC COAST, AS DRIER CONDITIONS PREVAIL FOR THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW ARCTIC COAST. AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS
COLDER AIR THE SURFACE, AREAS OF A WINTRY MIX AND FREEZING RAIN
WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND LOWER YUKON/UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS WITH LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. A SECOND,
HEAVIER WAVE OF PRECIPITATION WILL FILL IN BEHIND THIS FRONT
MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS A MORE ORGANIZED LOW ROTATES
AROUND THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE IN THE ALEUTIANS. THIS SYSTEM WILL
TAP INTO MORE ATMOSPHERIC RIVER MOISTURE AS IT ROTATES AROUND THE
MAIN LOW INTO BRISTOL BAY BY TUESDAY. THIS SECOND WAVE IS WARMER
AND WETTER THAN THE FIRST, BRINGING A LARGER AREA OF WINTRY MIX
FURTHER INLAND AS WELL AS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL FOR MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR IN THE DEFORMATION ZONE OF THIS SYSTEM WITH AN AREA
OF HIGH PRESSURE FURTHER NORTHWEST. THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR AND
AREAS JUST NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN MOSTLY
DRY DUE TO HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NORTHWEST AND DOWNSLOPING WINDS
NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE.
LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY WITH THAT FIRST WAVE WILL TRANSITION OVER TO
MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY FROM THE
YUKON DELTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR TO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WINTER STORM
WARNINGS, AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
CORRIDOR. STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY IN THIS
AREA ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3-6" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE
CENTRAL PARTS OF THIS BAND AROUND 6-12". BEST CHANCES FOR LIGHT
ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL AGAIN BE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR AND
LOWER YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS, HIGHEST FURTHER SOUTHWEST
WHILE UP NORTH TO AROUND FAIRBANKS WOULD ONLY STAND A CHANCE AT
SEEING VERY LIGHT AMOUNTS. THIS ICE WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW AND
WILL BE HARD TO ACCURATELY MEASURE. ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, A LOW
WORKING EAST THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1-3"
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE BROOKS RANGE AROUND 3-5".
WITH RESPECT TO WINDS, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST
STARTING TODAY BETWEEN THIS BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE AND A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N/NE WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS CORRIDOR
AS EXPECTED FROM THE BERING STRAIGHT SOUTH TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND
AND THE YUKON DELTA WITH STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OFFSHORE.
GIVEN THESE STRONGER WINDS, AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE
WHICH COULD LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT
TIMES. THIS WOULD ALSO APPLY TO THE ARCTIC COAST AS A LOW TRACKS
EAST THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN, WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE.
FURTHER INLAND, WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST ACROSS HIGHER
ELEVATIONS WITH A FOCUS IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND THROUGH ALASKA
RANGE PASSES. SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH WILL INCREASE
THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS
UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ISABEL PASS. AS A
RESULT, WE ARE LOOKING AT THE POTENTIAL OF NEEDING A WIND ADVISORY
FOR THIS AREA SOUTH OF DELTA JUNCTION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE THIS WEEK
ON A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ALASKA
UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GFS/ECMWF
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS 850 MB TEMPERATURES REACHING DOWN TO
AROUND 15-30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS OUR ENTIRE REGION, SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO AIR TEMPERATURES WITH COLDEST
AREAS BOTTOMING OUT AROUND 30-40 BELOW ZERO. AS A RESULT, LATER
THIS WEEK IS SHAPING UP TO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR
THIS SEASON FOR MOST. HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND, LONG RANGE MODELS
ARE SUPPORTING THE POTENTIAL FOR A TROUGH TO THEN SHIFT SOUTHWEST
OUT OF NW CANADA TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS PATTERN WOULD
KEEP BEST PRECIPITATION CHANCES REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR AREA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-832>835-837>847-849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-804-805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-810-816-817-851-853-854-
856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807-856.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850-858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
MACKAY
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