895
FXAK69 PAFG 302219
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
119 PM AKST SUN NOV 30 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE SOUTH
MEET ACROSS THE INTERIOR AS A WIDESPREAD WINTER STORM EVENT SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A BAND OF SNOW SETS UP WITH STORM TOTAL SNOW
VALUES OF 6 TO 12 INCHES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE BAND AND 2 TO 6
INCHES ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. THIS BAND OF SNOW IS EXPECTED TO RUN
FROM THE LOWER YUKON NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE YUKON FLATS. SOME
WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED, ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE BAND. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE LOWER YUKON
AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM WITH LESSER ACCUMULATIONS OF TRACE TO 0.05
INCHES POSSIBLE FOR THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY AND AREAS SOUTH AND
WEST TOWARDS THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM. CONDITIONS IMPROVE RAPIDLY FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AS COLDER, DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE
REGION. SIGNIFICANT COOLING LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK BRINGS TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEKEND WELL INTO THE NEGATIVES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS WITH HIGHEST TOTALS IN THE ALASKA RANGE.
- WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AS LIGHT SNOW BECOMES HEAVIER AND WETTER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND 3-6" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS AROUND 6-10" NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS. LOWEST
TOTALS AROUND 1-3" SOUTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS.
- SOME WINTRY MIX AMONGST THE HEAVIER SNOW IS POSSIBLE TUESDAY FOR
AREAS FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH. ICE ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE LIGHT,
GENERALLY A TRACE TO 0.05 INCHES.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
NORTH OF ISABEL PASS ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. LOW
TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR VALLEYS BY NEXT WEEKEND REACH BELOW
-20F.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
WITH DRIEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST AND THE
SEWARD PENINSULA.
- WARMER AND WETTER WEATHER BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY,
AS LIGHT SNOW BECOMES HEAVIER AND WETTER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
ALONG A CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA INTO
THE WESTERN INTERIOR. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AROUND 6-10" IN THIS CORRIDOR WITH LIGHTER TOTALS NORTH AND
SOUTH ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SNOW BAND.
- AS WARMER AIR OVERRUNS COLDER AIR THE SURFACE, A WINTRY MIX AND
FREEZING RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR,
LOWER YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.05-0.20" EXPECTED.
- THE GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING RAIN AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS
IS TUESDAY FOR THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND LOWER YUKON. ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 0.10 TO 0.20 INCHES POSSIBLE TUESDAY.
- N/NE WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND TODAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- NORTHERLY WINDS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF FOG AND POSSIBLE OCEAN
EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS ALONG NORTH FACING COASTS FACING OPEN
WATER. THERE MAY BE PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST,
EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN A COOLING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK WITH AREAS OF
LOW STRATUS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WORKS EAST THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
- COLDER AIR FURTHER NORTH WILL MEET A MOIST AIRMASS IN THE
INTERIOR, SUPPORTING HEAVIEST SNOW TOTALS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE. TOTAL SNOW AMOUNTS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE AROUND 1-3" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS IN THE BROOKS
RANGE AROUND 3-7".
- BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AT TIMES.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN OUT OF THE NORTHWEST
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUNDAY, A WEAK RIDGE
CONTINUES TO WEAKEN OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND A LARGE LOW
STALLS NEAR THE ALEUTIANS. A TROUGH STRETCHES SOUTH FROM ANOTHER
LOW IN THE HIGH ARCTIC THROUGH THE BERING SEA TOWARDS THE ALEUTIAN
LOW. A RIDGE BUILDING BEHIND THIS TROUGH STRENGTHENS OVER EASTERN
SIBERIA THROUGH MIDWEEK. THESE FEATURES COMBINE TO PULL COLDER
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST TOWARDS THE NORTH SLOPE AND WARMER, WETTER
AIR FROM THE SOUTH INTO THE INTERIOR. THESE FEATURES CLASH SUNDAY
AND MONDAY AND ESTABLISH A VERY STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT ACROSS
THE STATE WHICH WILL WORK TO ESTABLISH WHERE MOISTURE FROM THE
ALEUTIAN LOW COULD FALL AS EITHER SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX. AREAS FROM
THE LOWER YUKON TO UPPER KUSKOKWIM SOUTH AND WEST ARE MOST LIKELY
TO SEE A WINTRY MIX WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY AND AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRBANKS TO
ANVIK WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW WITH SLIM TO NO CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX.
AREAS IN BETWEEN, FROM THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST
TOWARDS THE LOWER YUKON WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME PERIODS OF
WET SNOW AND WINTRY MIX TUESDAY. THE CLASHING AIR MASSES ARE ALSO
GOING TO FUEL GUSTY NORTH TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WEST
COAST SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE ALEUTIAN LOW WILL PROVIDE ADDITIONAL MOISTURE FOR ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION IN TWO MAIN WAVES. THE FIRST OCCURS SUNDAY THROUGH
MONDAY AND WILL BE LIGHTER AS A SHORTWAVE FEATURE ROTATES AROUND
THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THE ALEUTIAN LOW STRENGTHENS AND BECOMES MORE
ORGANIZED AS THE NEXT WAVE APPROACHES. THIS WAVE IS BEING FUELED
BY A SEPARATE LOW ATTEMPTING TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE PROGRESSIVE
PATTERN THAT WRAPS INTO THE ALEUTIAN LOW. THIS SECONDARY LOW AS
IT REACHES THE SOUTHERNMOST EXTENT OF ITS ROTATION AROUND THE MAIN
ALEUTIAN LOW ENHANCES MOISTURE TRANSPORT FROM THE SUBTROPICS AND
PULLS WARMER, WETTER AIR THROUGH THE SYSTEM AND INTO SOUTHERN
ALASKA LATE MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY TO CLASH WITH THE ARCTIC AIR
MASS TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS SECOND WAVE OF MOISTURE WILL BE
STRONGER, BUT SO TOO WILL THE ARCTIC AIR MASS AS THE RIDGE THAT
WAS WEST OF IT BREAKS OFF INTO A STRONG ARCTIC HIGH THAT WILL PUSH
AGAINST THE APPROACHING TROPICAL AIR.
THIS WILL CAUSE THE SECOND WAVE TO BE AN EXAGGERATED REPEAT OF
THE FIRST. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR
AREAS NORTH OF FAIRBANKS WITH A MESS OF SNOW, WINTRY MIX, AND
PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM AND
LOWER YUKON. AREAS IN BETWEEN, INCLUDING FAIRBANKS, WILL SEE THE
QUICKEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX
TUESDAY DUE TO THAT WARM, SUBTROPICAL AIR TRYING TO OVERRUN THE
WALL OF ARCTIC AIR TO THE NORTH. A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW IS
EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE STRONG TEMPERATURE GRADIENT WITH TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE BAND
AND 2 TO 6 INCHES ALONG THE PERIPHERIES OF THE BAND.
THE TWO AIR MASSES WILL CLASH MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, BUT
EVENTUALLY THE ARCTIC AIR MASS WILL WIN OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE LOW CENTER IN THE ALEUTIANS GETTING CUT OFF
FROM ITS MOISTURE TRANSPORT. THE LOW WEAKENS RAPIDLY LATE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE WETTEST AIR MOVES FURTHER EAST TOWARDS
SOUTHEASTERN ALASKA. AS THE LOW WEAKENS THE HIGHER PRESSURE ARCTIC
AIR MASS WILL FURTHER ASSERT ITSELF PUSHING THE REMAINING MOISTURE
OUT OF THE REGION AND VERY RAPIDLY COOLING THE ENTIRE REGION FROM
THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WEDNESDAY NIGHT,
HIGHER PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION FROM THE
NORTHWEST. COLDER, DRIER, AND CLEARER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS THIS HIGHER PRESSURE AIR
SETTLES OVER THE STATE. TEMPERATURES DROP PRECIPITOUSLY WITH LOWS
REACHING BELOW -20 FOR MANY INTERIOR VALLEYS BY NEXT WEEKEND.
MORE MODEST TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ALONG THE WEST COAST REACHING
THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0. FOR MUCH OF THE REGION THESE
WILL BE THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SEEN THUS FAR THIS SEASON.
LINGERING MOISTURE FROM THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK MAY PRODUCE
AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES FIRST DROP LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-832>835-837>847-849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-804-805-811-852-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807-853-856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-810-816-817-851-854-856-
858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-850-851-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
STOKES
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