689
FXAK69 PAFG 011350
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
450 AM AKST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD AIR FROM THE ARCTIC AND WARM, MOIST AIR FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL MEET ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND THE INTERIOR OVER THE COMING
DAYS, SETTING THE STAGE FOR WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
MIDWEEK. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG A CORRIDOR RUNNING
FROM THE LOWER YUKON NORTHEAST TOWARDS THE YUKON FLATS, WITH
ACTIVITY INCREASING LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY AND CONTINUING
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. TOTALS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS BAND ARE
EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 5-10" WITH 2-5" ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. A
WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS BAND, WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.05-0.20" FOR THE LOWER YUKON AND UPPER
KUSKOKWIM. VERY LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. ALONG THE WEST COAST, GUSTY N/NE WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, WHICH AT TIMES
COULD SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCE VISIBILITY. CONDITIONS QUICKLY IMPROVE
FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY AS A COLDER AND DRIER
AIRMASS BUILDS INTO NORTHERN ALASKA UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE
OF HIGH PRESSURE. THIS WILL SUPPORT A SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND
LATER THIS WEEK, AS THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON
SETTLE IN.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY INTO
TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
POSSIBLE FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
- TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND 3-5" WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS AROUND 5-8" NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND IN
THE ALASKA RANGE AND LOWEST TOTALS AROUND 1-3" SE OF FAIRBANKS.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF ISABEL PASS ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THURSDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO FINISH OUT THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES
IN INTERIOR VALLEYS DROPPING TO AROUND -20F TO -40F LATER IN THE
WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND LOWER YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN COLD AND MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW
ARCTIC COAST.
- HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, WHERE AROUND 5-10" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
2-5" ALONG THE PERIPHERIES.
- TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND LOWER
YUKON/KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS AROUND 0.05-0.20".
- ELEVATED N/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG, ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS, AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BERING STRAIGHT, ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND/YUKON DELTA COAST.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST,
EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF A WEEK.
COLDEST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND -10F TO -25F MID TO LATE
WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS EAST THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOW FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST/PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FURTHER WEST.
- BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
TIMES.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK. COLDEST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND -20F
TO -40F MID TO LATE WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE CENTERED SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL ALEUTIANS IN BETWEEN TWO
RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE NE/NW PACIFIC. IN THE ARCTIC, AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO WORK EAST AS THAT RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE IN THE NW PACIFIC LIFTS NORTH THROUGH SIBERIA. THESE
FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO PULL IN A COLDER AIRMASS OUT OF THE
NORTHWEST AND A WARMER/WETTER AIRMASS IN OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST,
MEETING IN THE INTERIOR AND SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL CHANCES
THROUGH MIDWEEK.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA AND
THE INTERIOR NORTH TO THE ARCTIC COAST TODAY AS A SERIES OF
SHORTWAVES WORK ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA WITH POCKETS OF A WINTRY
MIX FURTHER SOUTHWEST. A MORE ROBUST PUSH OF MOISTURE WILL LIFT
NORTH AS A 960 MB LOW CURRENTLY NEAR 40N/160W WILL GET WRAPPED UP
IN THAT BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ALEUTIANS, SUPPORTING
A TURN NORTH TOWARDS BRISTOL BAY LATER TODAY INTO TUESDAY. THIS
SYSTEM, TAPPING INTO A PLUME OF MOISTURE DOWN TO ALMOST 20N JUST
NORTH OF HAWAII, WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN SNOW OF SNOW STARTING
TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY ALONG A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE YUKON
DELTA NORTHEAST TO THE YUKON FLATS. AREAS FROM THE LOWER YUKON TO
UPPER KUSKOKWIM SOUTH AND WEST ARE MOST LIKELY TO SEE A WINTRY MIX
WITH A CHANCE FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY,
AND AREAS NORTH OF A LINE FROM FAIRBANKS TO ANVIK WILL SEE MOSTLY
SNOW WITH SLIM TO NO CHANCE FOR WINTRY MIX. AREAS IN BETWEEN, FROM
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE LOWER YUKON
WILL SEE MOSTLY SNOW WITH SOME PERIODS OF WET SNOW AND WINTRY MIX
TUESDAY. AN ENHANCED GRADIENT BETWEEN THIS SYSTEM BUILDING INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA AND HIGH PRESSURE OVER SIBERIA WILL ALSO
LEAD TO CONTINUED GUSTY N/NE WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
LIGHT SNOW INITIALLY WITH THESE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS TODAY WILL
TRANSITION OVER TO MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR TO
THE YUKON FLATS. A MIX OF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES, WINTER STORM
WARNINGS, AND SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENTS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THIS
CORRIDOR. STORM TOTALS NEAR THE CENTER OF THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE AROUND 5-10" WITH AROUND 2-5" ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. A
WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THIS BAND, WITH ICE
ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 0.05-0.20" FOR THE LOWER YUKON AND UPPER
KUSKOKWIM. VERY LIGHT ICE AMOUNTS REMAIN POSSIBLE NORTHEAST INTO
THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY. THIS ICE WILL BE MIXED WITH SNOW AND MAY
BE HARD TO ACCURATELY MEASURE. ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, THAT LOW
WORKING EAST THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
AROUND 1-3" FOR THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE.
WITH RESPECT TO WINDS, A TIGHTENING GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO GUSTY N/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO
55 MPH POSSIBLE. STRONGEST WINDS IN THIS CORRIDOR AS EXPECTED FROM
THE BERING STRAIGHT SOUTH TO ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AND THE YUKON
DELTA, AS STRONGEST WINDS REMAINING OFFSHORE. GIVEN THESE STRONGER
WINDS, AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD LEAD TO
SIGNIFICANT REDUCTIONS IN VISIBILITY AT TIMES. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR THE BERING STRAIGHT AND ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND TO CAPTURE THESE IMPACTS THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WOULD ALSO
APPLY TO THE ARCTIC COAST AS THAT LOW TRACKS EAST THROUGH THE
ARCTIC OCEAN, WITH PATCHY BLOWING SNOW POSSIBLE. GUSTY NORTHERLY
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW ARCTIC
COAST MOSTLY DRY AS PROGRESSIVELY COLDER TEMPERATURES BUILD IN OUT
OF THE NORTHWEST. FURTHER INLAND, WINDS WILL REMAIN STRONGEST
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS WITH A FOCUS IN THE BROOKS RANGE AND
THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH
ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH
POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH OF ISABEL PASS ALONG THE RICHARDSON
HIGHWAY.
AS THIS RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NW PACIFIC INTO
SIBERIA SHIFTS EAST MIDWEEK, THIS WILL ALLOW THE COLDER AND DRIER
ARCTIC AIRMASS TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY AS MOISTURE FROM THAT LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS GETS CUT
OFF AND SHUNTED EAST. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESSENING WINDS ALONG THE
WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY AS SNOW CHANCES TAPER OFF
NW TO SE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD AGREEMENT LATE THIS WEEK ON
A MUCH COLDER AND DRIER AIRMASS BUILDING INTO NORTHERN ALASKA UNDER
THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. GFS/ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOWS
850 MB TEMPERATURES DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND 15-30 BELOW ZERO ACROSS
OUR ENTIRE CWA, SUPPORTING WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO AIR
TEMPERATURES WITH COLDEST AREAS REACHING DOWN TO AROUND 30-40 BELOW
ZERO. DEPENDENT ON CLEARING SKIES, WE COULD SEE LOCALLY COLDER
TEMPERATURES BELOW -40F. AS A RESULT, LATER THIS WEEK IS SHAPING UP
TO BRING THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES SO FAR THIS SEASON FOR MOST WITH
WARMEST LOCATIONS STAYING ALONG THE WEST COAST. FOR FRIDAY INTO
THE WEEKEND, LONG RANGE MODELS ARE SHOWING INCREASED CONFIDENCE ON
A TROUGH SHIFTING SOUTHWEST OUT OF NW CANADA AND THE BEAUFORT SEA
TOWARDS SOUTHCENTRAL. THIS PATTERN WOULD KEEP BEST PRECIPITATION
CHANCES REMAINING SOUTH OF OUR AREA, BUT WOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821-827.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803>805-852-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-810-816-817-850-851-853-
854-856-858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ855.
MACKAY
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