762
FXAK69 PAFG 020046
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
346 PM AKST MON DEC 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG STORM MOVING TOWARD THE ALEUTIANS WILL BRING
A WELL DEVELOPED MOISTURE PLUME NORTH TO INTERACT WITH REMNANT
MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR. WINTER STORM
WARNINGS AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST
LOCATIONS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE FOR AREAS OF HEAVY SNOW, MIXED
PRECIPITATION INCLUDING ACCUMULATING ICE, AND STRONG WINDS. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER THIS WEEK, BRINGING CLEARING SKIES AND
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CHANCES CONTINUE TO INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY INTO
TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY, WITH A LIGHT WINTRY MIX
LIKELY FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH BEGINNING TUESDAY EVENING
- TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND 3-5" WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS AROUND 5-8" NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND IN
THE ALASKA RANGE AND LOWEST TOTALS AROUND 1-3" SE OF FAIRBANKS.
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY NORTH
OF ISABEL PASS ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY. BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW IS POSSIBLE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES, LEADING
TO POOR TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
- TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL CAUSE CLOUDS TO CLEAR
AND LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES IN
INTERIOR VALLEYS DROPPING TO AROUND -20F TO -40F LATER IN THE
WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST
INTERIOR AND LOWER YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS. CONDITIONS
REMAIN MOSTLY DRY ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW ARCTIC
COAST.
- HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, WHERE AROUND 5-10" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
2-5" ALONG THE PERIPHERIES.
- TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND LOWER
YUKON/KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS AROUND 0.05-0.20".
- ELEVATED N/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG, ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS, AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BERING STRAIGHT, ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND/YUKON DELTA COAST.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST,
EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF A WEEK.
COLDEST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND -10F TO -25F MID TO LATE
WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS EAST THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOW FOR THE
CENTRAL/EASTERN ARCTIC COAST/PLAINS AND BROOKS RANGE. DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FURTHER WEST.
- BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK. COLDEST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND -20F
TO -40F MID TO LATE WEEK.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS NORTH
FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH NEAR 45 DEGREES NORTH ACROSS INTERIOR
ALASKA, THOUGH THE MAIN WEATHER MAKER OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IS
A 967 MB LOW CURRENTLY 450 MILES SOUTH OF KING COVE. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A WARM SECTOR THAT IS BRINGING A WELL DEVELOPED MOISTURE
STREAM NORTHWARD, WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH COLD AIR IN PLACE TO
FORM A BAND OF MODERATE TO HEAVY PRECIPITATION TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AS WELL AS AREAS
OF FREEZING RAIN AND LIGHT ICE ACCUMULATIONS, MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF
MINCHUMINA. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING OVER THE ARCTIC PLAIN WILL PUSH SNOWFALL AND CLOUDS
RAPIDLY EAST WITH CLEARING SKIES AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES
BEHIND THE BAND OF SNOW. AS THE HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN
BROOKS RANGE AT 1035 MB, A BRIEF PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS
IS LIKELY OVER DALTON AND ELLIOTT HIGHWAY SUMMITS THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT MONDAY
TROUGHING WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP FRIDAY ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA,
PUSHING SOUTHWEST FROM THE NORTHERN YUKON TERRITORY. MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS, WITH THE BASE OF THE TROUGH EVENTUALLY
DEVELOPING INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER BRISTOL BAY. THIS WILL KEEP
TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA, THOUGH THE
EASTERN INTERIOR MAY RECEIVE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND DEPENDING
ON THE TRACK OF A NUMBER OF WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THE TROUGH LOOKS TO PERSIST OVER THE
MAINLAND THROUGH MONDAY WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
OVER THE BERING SEA AND SLOWLY DRIFTING EAST. EXPECT CLEARER SKIES
TO THE WEST AND MORE CLOUDS TO THE EAST. IF THE TROUGH AND HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES EAST A COUPLE HUNDRED MILES, THE RESULT WOULD BE
VERY VERY COLD TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR THIS, BUT AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK LIKELY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821-827.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-810-816-817-850-851-853-
854-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ858.
CHRIEST
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page