328
FXAK69 PAFG 021330
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
430 AM AKST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG STORM MOVING THROUGH THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN
BERING SEA WILL BRING A WELL DEVELOPED MOISTURE NORTH PLUME INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, INTERACTING WITH REMNANT
MOISTURE AND A COLD FRONT OVER THE INTERIOR. THIS WILL SET THE
STAGE FOR MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW TO DEVELOP FROM THE YUKON DELTA
NORTHEAST TO THE YUKON FLATS, WHERE A MIX OF WINTER STORM WARNINGS
AND WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX ALSO REMAINS LIKELY FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH, WITH
BEST CHANCES ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND LOWER YUKON/UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS. UNDER THE INCREASING INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN MIDWEEK OUT OF THE NORTHWEST, MUCH COLDER AND DRIER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN REGIONWIDE.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND 3-5" WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS AROUND 5-8" NORTH/WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND IN THE
ALASKA RANGE AND LOWEST TOTALS AROUND 1-3" SE OF FAIRBANKS.
- WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES
TODAY, SUBSIDING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS
INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL SUPPORT CLEARER SKIES
AND MUCH COLDER/DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR
VALLEYS DROPPING TO AROUND -20F TO -40F STARTING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT.
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL SHIFT SOUTHEAST WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY,
CONTINUING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR AND IN THE ALASKA RANGE
THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY INTO TUESDAY, CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY, WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND
LOWER YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY
ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW ARCTIC COAST.
- HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, WHERE AROUND 5-10" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
2-5" ALONG THE PERIPHERIES.
- TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND LOWER
YUKON/KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS AROUND 0.05-0.20".
- ELEVATED N/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG, ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS, AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BERING STRAIGHT, ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND/YUKON DELTA COAST.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST,
EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF A WEEK.
COLDEST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND -10F TO -25F MID TO LATE
WEEK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EXPECTED AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS EAST THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
- AN ARCTIC FRONT TRACKING EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY WILL SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL 1-3" OF SNOW FOR THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COAST/PLAINS AND CENTRAL/EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FURTHER WEST.
- BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK. COLDEST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND -20F
TO -40F STARTING TONIGHT.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
EARLY MORNING SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A 960 MB LOW LIFTING NORTH
THROUGH THE CENTRAL/EASTERN ALEUTIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA, AN ARCTIC TROUGH CONTINUING TO BUILD INTO NORTHWEST ALASKA,
AND A SERIES OF RIDGES OF HIGH PRESSURE: ONE EXTENDING FROM THE NW
PACIFIC INTO SIBERIA AND ANOTHER FROM THE NE PACIFIC INTO EASTERN
ALASKA AND WESTERN CANADA. THIS SETUP WILL COMBINE TO PULL IN A
COLDER AIRMASS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND A WARMER/WETTER AIRMASS IN
OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, MEETING IN THE INTERIOR AND SUPPORTING
WIDESPREAD SNOW CHANCES. GIVEN A SURGE OF WARM AND MOIST AIR
LIFTING NORTH WITH THIS SYSTEM TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY, HIGH
CONFIDENCE SUPPORTS MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR
ALONG A CORRIDOR EXTENDING FROM THE YUKON DELTA NORTHEAST TO THE
YUKON FLATS AND IN THE ALASKA RANGE. WITH THIS WARM AIR
OVERRUNNING COLDER AIR AT THE SURFACE AT TIMES ESPECIALLY FURTHER
SOUTH, A WINTRY MIX IS EXPECTED FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH AND EVEN MORE
SO OUT TOWARDS THE LOWER YUKON AND UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS. GUSTY
WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE WEST COAST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED. AREAS OF FOG, ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS,
AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY A
TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BERING STRAIGHT, ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND,
AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND/YUKON DELTA COAST.
AS THAT RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM THE NW PACIFIC INTO
SIBERIA SHIFTS EAST MIDWEEK, THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A MUCH COLDER
AND DRIER, ARCTIC AIRMASS TO BUILD INTO NORTHERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY. MOISTURE FROM THAT LOW NEAR THE ALEUTIANS WILL
ULTIMATELY GET CUT OFF AND SHIFT SOUTHEAST OUT OF OUR CWA. THIS
WILL LEAD TO LESSENING WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WEDNESDAY AS SNOW CHANCES TAPER OFF ACROSS THE INTERIOR NORTH
TO THE ARCTIC COAST NW TO SE WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
AND ALASKA RANGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. STARTING TONIGHT,
WIDESPREAD DOUBLE DIGIT BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
FILL IN ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, BROOKS RANGE, AND NORTHWEST
INTERIOR, FURTHER EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS THE INTERIOR FOR
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT. COLDEST AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO
SEE AIR TEMPERATURES REACH DOWN TO AROUND -20F TO -40F. AS THE
HIGH DRIFTS EAST TO THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, A PERIOD OF GUSTY
NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY OVER DALTON, STEESE, AND ELLIOTT
HIGHWAY SUMMITS STARTING LATE THURSDAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FRIDAY THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY.
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH BROAD TROUGHING EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST
FROM THE YUKON TERRITORY AND BEAUFORT SEA ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA
FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AS THE BASE OF THIS TROUGH EXTENDS SOUTHWEST
INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA, A CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.
THIS SETUP WILL CONTINUE TO REINFORCE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES
OVERHEAD, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES HOVERING AROUND -15C TO -30C
SUPPORTING LOWS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND -20F TO -40F. DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME, GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER
DALTON, STEESE, AND ELLIOTT HIGHWAY SUMMITS STARTING LATE THURSDAY
AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW. THESE ENHANCED NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
ALSO EXPAND TO BE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND,
WHICH COULD LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AT TIMES BELOW -40F, WHICH WE
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR MAY ALSO
SEE SOME LIGHT SNOW INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK DEPENDING ON THE TRACK
OF A NUMBER OF WEAKER SYSTEMS MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE GULF
OF ALASKA, WITH ANY ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821-827.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-802.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-807.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850-851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
MACKAY
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