629
FXAK69 PAFG 022201
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
101 PM AKST TUE DEC 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
PRECIPITATION, MOSTLY SNOW, CONTINUES TO FALL ACROSS
THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF UNALAKLEET AND ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
EXPECT A TRANSITION TO ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT
ALONG THE NORTHWEST BOUNDARY OF THE SNOW BEGINS TO PUSH SOUTHEAST.
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR MOST LOCATIONS
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
WITH CLEARING SKIES AND FALLING TEMPERATURES. WINDY CONDITIONS ARE
LIKELY OVER THE WEEKEND FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA WITH VERY
COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CONTINUES ACROSS THE INTERIOR TODAY AND WEDNESDAY, WITH A
LIGHT WINTRY MIX FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH TODAY AND TONIGHT.
- TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY AROUND 3-5" WITH
HIGHEST TOTALS AROUND 5-8" NORTH/WEST OF FAIRBANKS AND IN THE
ALASKA RANGE AND LOWEST TOTALS AROUND 1-3" SE OF FAIRBANKS.
- SOUTH WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH CONTINUE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES TODAY, SUBSIDING TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL GUST TO 35 MPH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
- TEMPERATURES FALL RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN WILL SUPPORT CLEARER SKIES AND MUCH
COLDER/DRIER CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES IN INTERIOR VALLEYS
DROPPING TO AROUND -20F TO -40F STARTING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED OVER HIGH TERRAIN AND EVEN IN SOME
VALLEY LOCATIONS ESPECIALLY WEST OF FAIRBANKS THIS WEEKEND.
GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS, BUT THIS IS A POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT AND
COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO, WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY
COLD.
- A FEW LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE FAR SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR THURSDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF TOK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE ACROSS SOUTHWEST ALASKA
AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR TODAY, CONTINUING THROUGH WEDNESDAY,
WITH A WINTRY MIX ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND LOWER
YUKON/UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY ACROSS THE
SEWARD PENINSULA AND NW ARCTIC COAST.
- HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS THROUGH WEDNESDAY ARE EXPECTED ALONG A
CORRIDOR EXTENDING NORTHEAST FROM THE YUKON DELTA INTO THE
WESTERN INTERIOR, WHERE AROUND 5-10" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH
2-5" ALONG THE PERIPHERIES. AREAS NORTH AND WEST OF SHAKTOOLIK
TO HUSLIA TO SHUNGNAK WILL SEE LITTLE IF ANY PRECIPITATION.
- TOTAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST INTERIOR AND LOWER
YUKON/KUSKOKWIM VALLEYS AROUND 0.05-0.20".
- ELEVATED N/NE WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AREAS OF FOG, ISOLATED SNOW
SHOWERS, AND BLOWING SNOW WILL LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE BERING STRAIGHT, ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND SOUTHERN NORTON SOUND/YUKON DELTA COAST.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST WILL LEAD TO
COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW ARCTIC COAST,
EXPANDING FURTHER SOUTH WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF A WEEK.
COLDEST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND -10F TO -25F MID TO LATE
WEEK.
- WINDY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY FROM THE
KOYUKUK VALLEY SOUTH AND WEST. GUSTS GREATER THAN 40 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. FORECAST UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, BUT THIS IS A
POTENTIALLY IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT AND COMBINED WITH TEMPERATURES
BELOW ZERO, WIND CHILLS WILL BE VERY COLD.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ON A COOLING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH
AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF
DEADHORSE THROUGH TONIGHT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WORKS EAST
THROUGH THE ARCTIC OCEAN.
- BREEZY WINDS ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST AND IN THE BROOKS RANGE
COULD LEAD TO AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITY AT
TIMES THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
- INCREASING HIGH PRESSURE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST TODAY INTO
WEDNESDAY WILL LEAD TO MUCH COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS TO
FINISH OUT THE WEEK. COLDEST LOCATIONS DROPPING TO AROUND -20F
TO -40F STARTING TONIGHT.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AS OF NOON TUESDAY, THE
ANTICIPATED BAND OF MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER INTERIOR ALASKA. SNOW
IS FALLING NORTH OF FAIRBANKS, THOUGH SOUTHERLY WINDS GUSTING
50-60 MPH THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES ARE CAUSING A DRY LAYER THAN
IS EVAPORATING PRECIPITATION FROM FAIRBANKS SOUTH BEFORE IT
REACHES THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES NEAR THE ALASKA RANGE ARE IN
THE UPPER 30S AND LOW 40S, AND A SUPPLEMENTAL 10AM WEATHER
BALLOON LAUNCH FROM FAIRBANKS SHOWED AN ABOVE FREEZING WARM LAYER
FROM 2500 TO 3300 FEET. WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES SHOULD
TREND DOWNWARD THROUGH 10PM AS THE GRADIENT EASES, WHICH WILL
ALLOW THE COLD FRONT TO THE NORTH TO BEGIN TO PASS FROM NORTHWEST
TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR. ALL THIS IS
TO SAY THAT CHANCES FOR FREEZING RAIN REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS
EVENING BEFORE A TRANSITION TO SNOW THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.
THE FORECAST FOR 2 TO 5 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR THROUGH
WEDNESDAY REMAINS ON TRACK.
ACROSS THE WEST COAST, A NORTHERLY GRADIENT IS KEEPING COASTAL
AREAS QUITE WINDY. SNOW CONTINUES TO FALL SOUTH OF A LINE FROM
HUSLIA TO UNALAKLEET TO EMMONAK AND WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
WEAKENS LATER WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT ON THURSDAY, BRINGING MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEAST WINDS.
FOR THE NORTH SLOPE, SNOW WILL END THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
EASTERN NORTH SLOPE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EAST. ON
FRIDAY, AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTH, BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW EAST OF NUIQSUT AS WELL AS A COOLING TREND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SATURDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
BEGINNING SATURDAY, THE GRADIENT ACROSS THE INTERIOR WILL TIGHTEN
SIGNIFICANTLY. THIS WILL LEAD TO A WINDY AND COLD WEEKEND FOR MOST
AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS ALL THE WAY TO THE
YUKON DELTA. 850 MB WINDS MAY REACH 80 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, AND SOME WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
VALLEY FLOORS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WITH AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES ZERO TO 15 BELOW IN WINDY AREAS AND IN THE 20S AND
30S, POSSIBLY THE 40S BELOW IN SHELTERED AREAS. EAST OF FAIRBANKS,
MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MODERATED.
WINDY, DRY, AND COLD CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR, SOUTHEAST OF
TOK, WHERE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ820-821-827.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-806-817-853-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
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