295
FXAK69 PAFG 031333
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
433 AM AKST WED DEC 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
PERIODS OF SNOW CONTINUE FOR THE INTERIOR THIS MORNING BUT WILL
END FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
SOUTHEAST. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND 1 TO 3 INCHES IS
EXPECTED FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO EAGLE. AFTER THE SNOW ENDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING, SKIES WILL CLEAR RAPIDLY AS DRY AIR MOVES IN
AND TEMPERATURES WILL DROP SIGNIFICANTLY TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW. BY
THURSDAY MORNING, IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO FIND MANY PLACES ABOVE 0
DEGREES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA, EXCLUDING THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA WHERE IT WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH INTERIOR
VALLEYS AND THE NORTH SLOPE BOTTOMING OUT AROUND -30F TO -45F.
NORTH-NORTHEAST WIND ALSO PICKS UP IN THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WITH GUSTS POTENTIALLY UP TO 50 MPH ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN RESULTING IN VERY LOW WIND CHILLS.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ADDITIONAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW TODAY FROM LAKE MINCHUMINA TO
EAGLE, RAPID CLEARING THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.
- TEMPERATURES DROP DRAMATICALLY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW WITH MOST
LOCATIONS BELOW ZERO TOMORROW.
- A COLD TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THIS WEEKEND, UNDER CLEAR SKIES
TEMPERATURES LIKELY DROP TO -30F TO -45F (POTENTIALLY -50F IN
THE COLDEST SPOTS).
- ANY CLOUDS WILL LIMIT HOW COLD IT GETS AND THE HIGHEST CHANCES
FOR CLOUDS WILL BE IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR/UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
- NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS DEVELOP ON SATURDAY AND PERSIST INTO
SUNDAY, IF THE VALLEYS GET WIND, THIS WILL WARM UP TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY. EITHER WAY, IT WILL BE COLD WITH VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS.
- IN TERMS OF WIND, LOCATIONS OVER 1000FT MAY GUST UPWARDS OF 25
TO 50 MPH. INTERIOR VALLEYS (INCLUDING FAIRBANKS) HAVE A CHANCE
TO SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH IF THE INVERSION BREAKS.
- THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT AND END UP BEING
IMPACTFUL AS IT COULD LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LINGERING LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR ENDS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH CLEAR SKIES AND COLD TEMPERATURES SETTLING IN.
- A COLD TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0 ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE TEENS TO 30S BELOW ZERO IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
- NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND IF THESE WINDS
CAN BREAK THROUGH THE INVERTED VALLEYS, IT WILL BUMP UP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, BUT WIND CHILLS WOULD STILL BE VERY COLD.
EAST WIND GUSTS MAY BE UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND
IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 AND WIND THIS STRONG, IT COULD LEAD
TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -50F IN SOME SPOTS.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A COOLING TREND EARLY THIS WEEK WITH AREAS OF LOW STRATUS AND
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS EAST OF DEADHORSE ENDING THIS MORNING.
- BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE BEAUFORT SEA COAST AND IN THE BROOKS
RANGE CAN LEAD TO VISIBILITY BELOW 1 MILE AT TIMES TODAY. WIND
WILL BE DIMINISHING TONIGHT.
- A FRONT MOVES FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST BETWEEN THURSDAY TO FRIDAY WITH AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW
ALONG THE COAST. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW FOLLOWS AFTERWARDS
WHICH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- EXPECT TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ALONG THE COAST WITH -20S
INLAND THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT, THEN WIDESPREAD TEMPS NEAR THE -30S
WITH SOME -40F READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST LOCATIONS THIS
WEEKEND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE BIG STORY IS THE ARCTIC TROUGH DIPPING SOUTHEAST BRINGING MUCH
COLDER AND DRIER WEATHER TO NORTHERN ALASKA. BEFORE WE GET THERE,
WE'LL HAVE TO GET THROUGH THE REST OF THE SNOW TODAY. THERE ARE A
FEW MORE SHORTWAVES MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST THROUGH THE
INTERIOR TODAY BRINGING MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW WITH A FEW POCKETS OF
HEAVIER SNOW POSSIBLE. UNDERNEATH THE HEAVIEST SNOW, VISIBILITY
CAN GET BELOW 1 MILE. THE SNOW WILL BE ENDING THIS MORNING IN
TANANA AND BY ABOUT 4 PM IN FAIRBANKS WITH LIGHT SNOW ENDING
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT FROM DELTA JUNCTION TO THE ALCAN
BORDER. INTERIOR VALLEYS MAY HOLD ON TO SOME MOISTURE AFTER THE
FRONT MOVES THROUGH LEAVING A CHANCE FOR AREAS OF STRATUS AND FOG
TONIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS VERY DRY AIR MOVING IN, SO ANY STRATUS
OR FOG WILL BE SHORT LIVED AND MOSTLY GONE BY TOMORROW MORNING.
THE INITIAL SHOT OF COLD AIR PROVIDED BY THIS FRONT WON'T BE
ANYTHING TOO EXTREME, BUT IT WILL BE NOTICEABLE. COMING FROM HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 20S YESTERDAY, MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA
WILL STRUGGLE TO BE ABOVE 0 BY THURSDAY MORNING AND THE COOLING
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
AS THE ARCTIC TROUGH DIPS SOUTH, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE
DROPPING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO IN THE SOUTHERN
INTERIOR TO THE TEENS AND NEAR 20 BELOW ZERO BY TONIGHT. THE
COLDEST OF THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE EAST OF FAIRBANKS. 850MB
TEMPERATURES THIS LOW SUPPORTS SURFACE TEMPERATURES AROUND 20F TO
40F BELOW ZERO UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. IN THE WESTERN
INTERIOR AND WEST COAST, 850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 5F TO
10F BELOW ZERO WHICH WOULD BRING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO THE
SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO SOUTH OF THE YUKON AND TEENS TO 20S BELOW
ZERO NORTH OF THE YUKON RIVER. THE NORTH SLOPE WILL HAVE SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW AS WELL.
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO CRASH THIS WEEKEND WITH WIDESPREAD 850MB
TEMPS AROUND -20F TO -30F. THIS, UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS,
WOULD SUPPORT VALLEY TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND EVEN 50S BELOW
ZERO. THE CAVEAT TO THIS IS, THERE WILL BE A DIGGING TROUGH MOVING
OVER THE STATE AND INTO THE GULF, SO THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME
CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY FROM FAIRBANKS EAST.
ALL OF WESTERN ALASKA FROM UTQIAGVIK TO MCGRATH WESTWARD SHOULD BE
MOSTLY CLEAR. THEREFORE, THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES MAY END UP
BEING IN THE WESTERN ALASKA. THAT'S ONLY IF THE CLOUDS IN THE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR MATERIALIZE. ONE OTHER VERY IMPORTANT
DETAIL IS, IT'S GOING TO GET WINDY, ESPECIALLY OVER THE TERRAIN
OF THE INTERIOR. IT IS UNCERTAIN WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH WIND
TO BREAK THE STRONG VALLEY INVERSIONS, BUT WITH A STRONG AREA OF
VORTICITY MOVING OVERHEAD, IT MAY BE ENOUGH TO BRING THE VALLEYS
SOME WIND, LIMITING THE TEMPERATURES. NEVERTHELESS, WIND AND COLD
WOULD THEN BRING WIND CHILL INTO PLAY AND THERE MAY BE SEVERAL
LOCATIONS WITH WIND CHILLS NEAR OR BELOW -40F. IN TERMS OF WIND
SPEEDS, ALL OF THE INTERIOR SUMMITS ABOVE 1000FT HAVE A CHANCE TO
GUST 25 TO 50 MPH SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. TOWARDS MCGRATH AND ALONG
THE WEST COAST SOUTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA, 40 TO 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE. THIS COULD BECOME AN IMPACTFUL WIND EVENT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SUNDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
SUNDAY WILL BE THE END OF THE WINDY AND COLD WEEKEND FOR MOST
AREAS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS ALL THE WAY TO THE
YUKON DELTA. 850 MB WINDS MAY REACH 80 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
INTERIOR, AND SOME WINDS WILL LIKELY MIX ALL THE WAY DOWN TO
VALLEY FLOORS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE EXPECTED WITH AMBIENT
TEMPERATURES ZERO TO 15 BELOW IN WINDY AREAS AND IN THE 20S AND
30S, POSSIBLY THE 40S BELOW IN SHELTERED AREAS. EAST OF FAIRBANKS,
MORE CLOUDS ARE LIKELY WHICH WILL KEEP CONDITIONS MODERATED.
WINDY, DRY, AND COLD CONDITIONS LOOK TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR ALL AREAS EXCEPT THE FAR SOUTHEAST INTERIOR, SOUTHEAST OF
TOK, WHERE ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-832>835-837>850.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ825-826-830-851-852.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-806-817-853-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ806-816-817-850-851-853-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
BIANCO
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