663
FXAK69 PAFG 041230
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
330 AM AKST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
OTHER THAN A FEW LINGERING POCKETS OF STRATUS ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA, MOST OF THE AREA IS CLEAR WITH COOLING TEMPERATURES. THE
WEATHER MOVING FORWARD WILL BE COLD WITH LITTLE CHANCES FOR SNOW.
NAMELY LIGHT SNOW IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY/ALCAN BORDER
SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THIS HAS BEEN TRENDING FARTHER NORTHWEST
SINCE YESTERDAY BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT SNOW AS FAR NORTHWEST AS
FAIRBANKS RIGHT NOW. OTHERWISE, THE SYSTEM BRINGING THIS SNOW WILL
INTERACT WITH A STRONG HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA RESULTING IN
VERY STRONG WIND TO THE INTERIOR AND WEST COAST THIS WEEKEND. THIS
WILL LIKELY MIX DOWN TO THE VALLEY FLOORS AS WELL, MAKING FOR
VERY COLD WIND CHILLS AND BLOWING SNOW.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER, TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS LOW AS
TO 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO BY THIS WEEKEND.
- CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR, LIMITING HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES GET. SNOW WILL ALSO TRY TO MOVE IN ON
SATURDAY (1 INCH OR LESS) FROM DELTA EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER.
- N/NE WIND INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE YUKON
FLATS SOUTHWEST. GUSTS ABOVE 1000FT MAY BE UPWARDS OF 25 TO 50
MPH WHEREAS VALLEYS CAN SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH (IF THE INVERSION
BREAKS). THIS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AM, THEN WEAKENS.
- AMBIENT TEMPERATURES FROM TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH NO CLOUDS
OR WIND, WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO. A FEW
COLDER SPOTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS MAY HIT 40
BELOW.
- WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BE AS LOW AS 65 BELOW ZERO FROM TANANA TO
THE YUKON FLATS THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000FT.
- THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT AND END UP BEING
IMPACTFUL AS IT COULD LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG THE
PARKS HIGHWAY FROM CARLO CREEK TO CANTWELL AND FROM TRIMS CAMP TO
FIELDING LAKE ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.
- THE COLD TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK AND WITH WEAKENING
WINDS/DIMINISHING CLOUD COVER, SEVERAL AREAS WILL LIKELY DROP
INTO THE 40S AND 50S BELOW ZERO.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A COLD TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES AROUND OR SLIGHTLY BELOW 0 ALONG THE COAST AND IN
THE TEENS TO 30S BELOW ZERO IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS.
- NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND AND IF THESE WINDS
CAN BREAK THROUGH THE INVERTED VALLEYS, IT WILL BUMP UP
TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY, BUT WIND CHILLS WOULD STILL BE VERY COLD.
WIND GUSTS MAY BE UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN.
- WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 AND WIND THIS STRONG, IT COULD LEAD
TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -50F IN SOME SPOTS.
- WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS, BLOWING
SNOW, AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FROM KOYUK TO HUSLIA AND SOUTH
TO THE YUKON DELTA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A FRONT MOVES FROM THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TO THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COAST BETWEEN TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW WITH AREAS OF LIGHT
SNOW AND STRATUS ALONG THE COAST. PERSISTENT ONSHORE FLOW
FOLLOWS AFTERWARDS WITH MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND.
- EXPECT TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ALONG THE COAST WITH 20S
BELOW ZERO INLAND THROUGH TOMORROW, THEN WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN
THE 30S BELOW ZERO WITH SOME 40F BELOW READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS WELL INTO NEXT WEEK WITH DRY AND VERY
COLD CONDITIONS, AS WELL AS NORTHERLY WINDS AND WIND CHILLS AS
COLD AS -60 F THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AS OF 0300 AKDT, TEMPERATURES ARE FROM KALTAG TO KOTZEBUE TO FORT
YUKON ARE AROUND 10F TO 30F BELOW ZERO. IN THE TANANA VALLEY,
TEMPERATURES ARE RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO TO 15F
ABOVE ZERO WITH THE WARMEST BEING IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY.
CONTINUING THROUGH THE DAY, TEMPERATURES STAY COLD AND LIKELY
DON'T BUDGE TOO MUCH. TOMORROW WILL BE SIMILAR BUT LIKELY A BIT
COLDER FROM FAIRBANKS TO NORTHWAY. OTHERWISE, A LOW IN THE GULF
WILL MOVE NORTHEAST INTO THE SOUTHERN YUKON TERRITORY BRINGING
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW FROM DELTA JUNCTION EAST ON SATURDAY.
SNOWFALL TOTALS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, AROUND 1 INCH OR LESS. SOUTH
OF NORTHWAY TOWARDS THE NUTZOTIN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE HEAVIER SNOW.
AS A RESULT OF THIS, TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE SLIGHTLY TOWARDS 0
DEGREES. FOR THE REST OF THE INTERIOR, BROOKS RANGE AND ALONG THE
WEST COAST, NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
50 MPH IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE INTERIOR AS WELL AS IN THE
BROOKS RANGE PASSES. THIS WILL WARM UP THE AMBIENT AIR
TEMPERATURES BUT WIND CHILLS WILL BE DANGEROUS, EVEN IN THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE THE INVERSION BREAKS. SOME SPOTS,
WILL EXPERIENCE WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 65F BELOW ZERO FROM TANANA
TO THE YUKON FLATS AND 50F BELOW ZERO IN THE WESTERN INTERIOR. IN
FAIRBANKS, WIND GUSTS MAY BE AS HIGH AS 30 MPH WITH WIND CHILLS
AROUND 40F BELOW ZERO. THIS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY, BUT WINDS
WEAKEN THROUGH THE DAY. WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE POSSIBILITY OF SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW, DANGEROUS WIND CHILLS
AND STRONG WIND. AFTERWARDS, MOST WIND GOES CALM AND SKIES REMAIN
CLEAR ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA. WITH 850MB TEMPS AROUND 20C
TO 30C BELOW ZERO, WE CAN EXPECT MANY VALLEY LOCATIONS TO BE IN
THE 40S AND 50S BELOW ZERO DURING THE EARLY AND MIDDLE PARTS OF
NEXT WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE BERING STRAIT WITH A LOW IN THE EASTERN
GULF OF ALASKA LOOKS TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL
BRING PROLONGED COLD TO NORTHERN ALASKA. WINDS LOOK TO DIMINISH IN
THE TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY TIMEFRAME AS THE GRADIENT EASES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR VALLEY INVERSIONS TO STRENGTHEN, AND WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES -20 C OR COLDER, CONDITIONS MAY SUPPORT TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S OR 50S BELOW.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ824>826-828>830-832>834-846-847-851-
852.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815-861.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ853.
BIANCO
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