416
FXAK69 PAFG 050043
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
343 PM AKST THU DEC 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO DROP ACROSS THE REGION. GENERALLY CLEAR
AND CALM CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY WITH NORTHEASTERLY
WINDS INCREASING LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
AND LOW WIND CHILLS ARE LIKELY AS WINDS INCREASE. WINDS DECREASE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY, BUT COLD TEMPERATURES REMAIN WELL INTO NEXT
WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- MOSTLY CLEAR AND COLD WEATHER, TEMPERATURES DROPPING AS LOW AS
TO 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO BY THIS WEEKEND.
- CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR, LIMITING HOW
COLD TEMPERATURES GET. SNOW WILL ALSO TRY TO MOVE IN ON
SATURDAY (1 INCH OR LESS) FROM DELTA EAST TO THE ALCAN BORDER.
- N/NE WIND INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE YUKON
FLATS SOUTHWEST. GUSTS ABOVE 1000FT MAY BE UPWARDS OF 30 TO 50
MPH WHEREAS VALLEYS CAN SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH (IF THE INVERSION
BREAKS). THIS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY AM, THEN WEAKENS.
- AMBIENT TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH NO CLOUDS OR WIND,
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO. A FEW COLDER SPOTS,
ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS MAY HIT 40 BELOW.
- WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BE AS LOW AS 60 BELOW ZERO FROM TANANA
TO THE YUKON FLATS THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW IS
POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000FT.
- THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT AND END UP BEING
IMPACTFUL AS IT COULD LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY ALONG
THE PARKS HIGHWAY FROM CARLO CREEK TO CANTWELL AND FROM TRIMS
CAMP TO FIELDING LAKE ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY.
- THE COLD TREND CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK. WINDS WEAKEN RAPIDLY
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND CLOUDS CLEAR AGAIN. STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL FORM IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THE
COLDEST VALLEYS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 40S AND 50S BELOW
ZERO.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A COLD TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0 ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE TEENS TO 30S BELOW ZERO IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.
- NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS MAY BE
UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 AND WIND THIS STRONG, IT COULD LEAD
TO WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -50F IN SOME SPOTS.
- WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS, BLOWING
SNOW, AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FROM KOYUK TO HUSLIA AND SOUTH
TO THE YUKON DELTA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- A FRONT MOVES WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. LIGHT SNOW MOVES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE REACHING
DEADHORSE AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE
FRIDAY MORNING AND DIMINISHES FRIDAY EVENING. ACCUMULATIONS UP
TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE.
- EXPECT TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ALONG THE COAST WITH 20S
BELOW ZERO INLAND THROUGH TOMORROW, THEN WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN
THE 30S BELOW ZERO WITH SOME 40F BELOW READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE
COLDEST LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE FRIDAY UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST AND UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES. WIND
CHILLS FALL TO AS COLD AS -60F THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD THURSDAY, THE OVERALL PATTERN
IS DOMINATED BY 3 MAIN FEATURES; A 555 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL HIGH
IN THE NORTHERN BERING SEA, A 536 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER
THE ALASKA PENINSULA, AND A 500 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW IN THE
HIGH ARCTIC. THE BERING SEA HIGH MOVES NORTH INTO EASTERN SIBERIA
AND THE ARCTIC LOW MOVES SOUTH TOWARDS THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THROUGH FRIDAY. THE ARCTIC LOW BRINGS WITH IT VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -30C. A VERY HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN DEVELOPS BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY, WHICH PEAKS AS THE ARCTIC LOW GETS PULLED
SOUTHWEST TOWARDS KODIAK ISLAND AND COMBINES WITH THE ALASKAN
PENINSULA LOW REACHING 495 DECAMETERS BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THIS
REINVIGORATES THE WEAKENING TROUGH AND FURTHER STRENGTHENS THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND THE LOW WHICH CREATES STRONG JET OF
WIND ALOFT ACROSS THE INTERIOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND THEN
INCREASE EVEN FURTHER SATURDAY MORNING. THE CORRIDOR WHERE THE
STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IS FROM THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE AND
YUKON FLATS SOUTH AND WEST TOWARDS THE YUKON DELTA. THIS
ORIENTATION PLACES THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS
THAT SAW RECENT SNOWFALL EARLIER THIS WEEK. FRESH SNOW GREATLY
INCREASES THE THREAT OF BLOWING SNOW AND SOME GROUND BLIZZARDS ARE
EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY ALONG HIGHER TERRAIN IN THAT SAME CORRIDOR.
COLD, DENSE, ARCTIC AIR SWEEPS ACROSS THE INTERIOR BRINGING OUR
850MB TEMPERATURES DOWN INTO THE -25C TO -30C RANGE BY SATURDAY.
CLEARER AND CALMER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR IN THE WAKE OF
THE SNOW EARLIER THIS WEEK IS ALLOWING STRONG INVERSIONS TO
DEVELOP IN INTERIOR VALLEYS. THESE INVERSIONS ARE BRINGING LOW
TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW 0, REACHING INTO THE -20S TO -30S THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY. SATURDAY WINDS PICK UP ENOUGH TO MIX MANY OF THE
INVERSIONS OUT OF THE VALLEYS WHICH WILL RAISE THE TEMPERATURES
INTO THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS, BUT VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS INTO THE -30S TO -50S BECOME POSSIBLE. STRONG INVERSIONS AS
EXPECTED ARE DIFFICULT TO MIX, BUT WINDS SHOULD BE STRONG ENOUGH
TO FULLY MIX OUT THE INVERSION FOR MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS NORTH
AND WEST OF FAIRBANKS. THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TANANA VALLEYS WILL BE
MORE SHELTERED FROM THE STRONGEST WINDS, BUT COULD STILL SEE SOME
STRONG GUSTS BREAK THROUGH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, SUNDAY NIGHT, A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH AND LOW
SUSTAINING IT BOTH WEAKEN. WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DIMINISH
SLOWLY SUNDAY AND FADE MORE QUICKLY MONDAY BECOMING MOSTLY CALM
AGAIN BY TUESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING VERY COLD VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP AS STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS BUILD LATE MONDAY. A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO CHIP AWAY AT
COLDER TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO KEEP THE COLD AIR AROUND THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ848-850.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ824>826-828>830-851-852.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ832-834.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833-838>847.
PK...HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
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