210
FXAK69 PAFG 051359
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
459 AM AKST FRI DEC 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
THE COLD TREND CONTINUES TODAY WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING THROUGH
THE DAY ACROSS ALL OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS WEEKEND WE SEE A BIT
OF A MIX UP WITH STRONG WIND DEVELOPING FROM THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
TO THE YUKON DELTA. WINTER WEATHER HAZARDS ARE ISSUED ACROSS THE
AREA FOR BLOWING SNOW, VERY COLD WIND CHILL AND STRONG WINTERTIME
WIND. WINDS DECREASE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY BUT THE ARCTIC
BLAST CONTINUES THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD EVERYWHERE WITH THE COLDEST SPOTS BEING IN THE VALLEYS,
ESPECIALLY THE YUKON FLATS.
- WIND INCREASES THIS WEEKEND WITH SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN AK RANGE PASSES, WHITE MTNS AND DALTON
HIGHWAY SUMMITS. VERY COLD WIND CHILLS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
INTERIOR AS WELL.
- N/NE WIND INCREASES SIGNIFICANTLY ON SATURDAY FROM THE YUKON
FLATS SOUTHWEST. GUSTS ABOVE 1000FT MAY BE UPWARDS OF 30 TO 50
MPH WHEREAS VALLEYS CAN SEE GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH (IF THE
INVERSION BREAKS). THIS CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY PM, THEN WEAKENS.
- AMBIENT TEMPERATURES THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH NO CLOUDS OR WIND,
WILL DROP INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO. A FEW COLDER
SPOTS, ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS MAY HIT 40
BELOW.
- WIND CHILL VALUES MAY BE AS LOW AS 60 BELOW ZERO FROM TANANA
TO THE YUKON FLATS THIS WEEKEND. SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW IS
EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN ABOVE 1000FT.
- THIS COULD BE A SIGNIFICANT WIND EVENT AND END UP BEING
IMPACTFUL AS IT COULD LEAD TO TREE DAMAGE AND POWER OUTAGES.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
AFTERNOON ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY FROM CARLO CREEK TO CANTWELL
AND FROM TRIMS CAMP TO FIELDING LAKE ALONG THE RICHARDSON
HIGHWAY. THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT ALONG THE DALTON/STEESE SUMMITS.
- COLD WEATHER CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK WITH TEMPERATURES
DROPPING INTO THE 40S AND 50S BELOW ZERO IN THE CENTRAL AND
EASTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- A COLD TREND CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. EXPECT MINIMUM
TEMPERATURES IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0 ALONG THE
COAST AND IN THE TEENS TO 30S BELOW ZERO IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS.
- NORTH-NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE THIS WEEKEND. WIND GUSTS MAY BE
UP TO 35 TO 45 MPH ALONG THE COAST AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
- WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW 0 AND WIND THIS STRONG, IT COULD LEAD TO
WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -50F IN SOME SPOTS.
- WINTER STORM WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR STRONG WINDS, BLOWING
SNOW, AND VERY COLD WIND CHILLS FROM KOYUK TO HUSLIA AND SOUTH
TO THE YUKON DELTA FROM FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
- WEAKENING WINDS PREVAIL NEXT WEEK MAKING FOR MUCH COLDER AIR
TEMPERATURES. POTENTIALLY IN THE 30S/40S BELOW ZERO IN THE
INTERIOR AND SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BELOW ZERO ALONG THE COAST.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW POSSIBLE TODAY AS A FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD,
ESPECIALLY FROM DEADHORSE EAST AND THE EASTERN BROOKS RANGE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS UP TO 1 INCH.
- EXPECT TEMPS IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS ALONG THE COAST WITH 20S
BELOW ZERO INLAND TODAY, THEN WIDESPREAD TEMPS IN THE 30S BELOW
ZERO WITH SOME 40F BELOW READINGS POSSIBLE IN THE COLDEST
LOCATIONS THIS WEEKEND.
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TODAY UP TO 10 TO 15 MPH ALONG THE
COAST AND UP TO 25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES. WIND
CHILLS FALL TO AS COLD AS -60F THROUGH THE BROOKS RANGE PASSES.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE MAIN STORY IS THE COLD AND WIND COMING THIS WEEKEND. A STRONG
556 DECAMETER HIGH IS OVER EASTERN SIBERIA AS A 501 DECAMETER LOW
MOVES SOUTH ALONG THE EASTERN EDGE OF THE HIGH. THIS EVENING, THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE RIDGE WILL BE
POSITIVELY TILTED FROM NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST. AS THE ENERGY FROM
THE LOW GRADUALLY DROPS SOUTH, IT WILL INTERACT WITH ENERGY AT THE
BASE OF THE TROUGH. TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, THE TROUGH GOES
NEGATIVELY TILTED AND UNDERGOES CYCLOGENESIS IN THE GULF. A 499
DECAMETER LOW WILL BE IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF WITH A 555
DECAMETER HIGH OVER EASTERN SIBERIA. THIS RESULTS IN STRONG
NORTHEAST FLOW ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA. AT THE SURFACE,
THERE WILL BE GUSTY WIND AND TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO. WE HAVE
ISSUED A PLETHORA OF HAZARDS FOR BLOWING SNOW, COLD WIND CHILLS
AND HIGH WINDS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL BE MOST PROMINENT FROM
SATURDAY MORNING INTO SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY AS THE HIGH WEAKENS AND THE LOW
MOVES SOUTHEAST/WEAKENS.
NEXT WEEK, WINDS WILL BECOME MOSTLY CALM WITH VERY COLD 850MB
TEMPERATURES AROUND 20C TO 30C BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL LIKELY
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND MAYBE 50S BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE INTERIOR, WHILE REMAINING IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW
ZERO ALONG THE COAST. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED IN
THE SHORT TERM.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, SUNDAY NIGHT, A HIGH
AMPLITUDE PATTERN CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AS THE HIGH AND LOW
SUSTAINING IT BOTH WEAKEN. WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR DIMINISH
SLOWLY SUNDAY AND FADE MORE QUICKLY MONDAY BECOMING MOSTLY CALM
AGAIN BY TUESDAY. COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EASTERN INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY WITH CLEAR AND CALM CONDITIONS
ALLOWING VERY COLD VALLEY TEMPERATURES TO DEVELOP AS STRONG
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS BUILD LATE MONDAY. A BUILDING RIDGE IN THE
BERING SEA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WILL BEGIN TO CHIP AWAY AT
COLDER TEMPERATURES, HOWEVER ADDITIONAL ARCTIC AIR MOVES SOUTH
INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR TO KEEP THE COLD AIR AROUND THROUGH THE
END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ809>811.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ848-850.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ851-852.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ824-829-830.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ832-834.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833-838>847.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802>805-852.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ850.
BIANCO
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