005
FXAK69 PAFG 221502
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
602 AM AKST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CAUSE DISRUPTIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK,
AS TWO SYSTEMS BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO MAKE IT'S WAY ACROSS THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND Y-K
DELTA THIS MORNING. THIS SYSTEM WILL RAPIDLY WEAKEN AS IT
ENCOUNTERS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR TODAY. TUESDAY
THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY ONTO THE
WEST COAST. THIS WILL BRING HEAVY SNOWFALL TO THE NORTHWEST
INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE IT
INTO THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH. HEAVY SNOW WILL DEVELOP AS
THE MAIN FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD WEDNESDAY MORNING. BY THURSDAY
NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD TEMPERATURES THROUGH MONDAY WITH VALLEY LOWS IN THE -30S TO
-50S. TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH
HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 0 IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR BEFORE COOLING
BACK TO LOWS IN THE -30S TO -50S LATE NEXT WEEK. INCREASING
EASTERLY WINDS MONDAY WILL LIKELY KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES BELOW
-50 EVEN AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM.
- SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE FAIRBANKS
NORTH STAR BOROUGH, CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN PLACE.
- LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS
COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW
1/2 MILE AT TIMES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS BELOW
15 MPH, BUT PAIRED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TWO WAVES OF SNOW WASH OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
LATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC BOROUGH AND BETWEEN 5
AND 10 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND
EASTERN NORTON SOUND. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- AFTER THIS SERIES OF STORMS COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THURSDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN
THE 10S TO 20S BELOW 0, AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR SEEING 30S AND
40S BELOW ZERO RETURN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATE TODAY WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH
POSSIBLE WEST OF POINT BARROW.
- THE STRONGEST GUSTS OF 40 TO 60 MPH EXPECTED ALONG THE
LISBURNE PENINSULA AND AT POINT HOPE. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS
BEEN ISSUED.
- A SERIES OF STORMS BRINGS WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS RANGE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.
- ATIGUN PASS WILL SEE 1 TO 3 INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY
WINDS UP TO 30 MPH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A
PERIOD OF REDUCED VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PASS.
- THERE IS A CHANCE OF STRONG WESTERLY WINDS THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND WHICH MAY LEAD TO PERIODS OF LOW VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW AND POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE YUKON TERRITORIES IN
CANADA. THIS HIGH IS ACCOMPANIED WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES
APPROACHING -30 DEGREES. WITH THESE 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND CLEAR
SKIES, SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE 40S BELOW ZERO THIS MORNING
ACROSS MANY OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS. A 996 MB LOW IS
MOVING ONSHORE ON THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. THIS LOW HAS A WARM
FRONT THAT WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN INTERIOR BY TONIGHT. THIS
FRONT HAS A PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC BRINGING UP
TO 0.40 INCHES OF LIQUID INTO NORTON SOUND. WHILE SOUNDING
PROFILES SHOW A HEALTHY DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE, STRONG WINDS ALOFT
AND AT THE SURFACE WILL REDUCE THE SNOW RATIOS. THIS WILL LIMIT
HOW MUCH SNOWFALL THE AREA COULD RECEIVE. EVEN IF THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA DOESN'T RECEIVE THE UPPER END OF THE FORECAST OF
10 INCHES, SIGNIFICANT BLOWING SNOW AND DRIFTING SNOW IS A
CONCERN THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES EAST IT WILL INTERACT WITH THE HIGH
PRESSURE OVER CANADA AND BEGIN TO WEAKEN. BEHIND THAT FRONT A
SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA AND INTO
THE CHUCKCHI SEA TUESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF FRONTOGENIS IS
EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR WITH THE DECAYING WARM FRONT
AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AS THIS TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL
CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND PUSH THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. BY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THE REINVIGORATED WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE TANANA VALLEY.
IN THE TANANA VALLEY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVERTOP THE AREA.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR A 6 TO
12 HOUR PERIOD. HERE IN THE TANANA VALLEY INCLUDING FAIRBANKS WE WILL
SEE 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW, WITH MOST OF THE SNOW WEDNESDAY
MORNING TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
THURSDAY MORNING. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE THE NORTHERN FACES OF
THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING THE PARKS HIGHWAY
AT DENALI PARK. WE ARE ANTICIPATING 7 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW STARTING MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW-
LEVEL JET WILL ALSO LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 2,000 FEET LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW TO COMMUNITIES AND
ROADWAYS OUTSIDE VALLEY LOCATIONS.
THE BIGGEST QUESTION WILL BE WHAT WILL THE SNOW RATIOS BE. THERE
IS QUITE A BIT OF MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT THEY WILL BE.
SOUNDING PROFILES FOR FAIRBANKS IS SHOWING A 400 MB FULLY
SATURATED DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PAIRED WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT,
THERE IS SUPPORT FOR RATIOS HIGHER THAN 20 TO 1. WINDS IN THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFLAKE FORMATION, WHICH
IS THE MAIN DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. SOME MODELS ARE
SHOWING AN 18 TO 1 RATIO WHILE SOME GET AS HIGH AS 25 TO 1. THESE
RATIOS WOULD PLACE THE SNOWFALL INTO THE FORECAST RANGE.
REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE RATIOS TURN OUT TO BE, THE SNOW WILL BE DRY
AND FLUFFY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AT THE END OF THE WEEK THE WEATHER WILL BEGIN TO QUIET DOWN AS WE
SETTLE BACK INTO HIGH PRESSURE AND COLDER TEMPERATURES. BEHIND THE
FRONT ON THURSDAY, ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH BACK INTO THE INTERIOR.
TEMPERATURES WILL GO BACK TO BEING IN THE 20S TO 40S BELOW ZERO. A
LOW PRESSURE WILL STRENGTHEN IN THE GULF OF ALASKA GOING INTO THE
WEEKEND. THIS LOW COULD BRING A WEAK FRONT ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE
INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR. SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS FRONT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON AMOUNTS AND HOW FAR WEST THE
FRONT WILL MAKE IT.
SUNDAY NIGHT ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE WEST
COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT,
BRINGING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO NOT BE AS
IMPACTFUL AS THE CURRENT SYSTEMS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AS WE MOVE FORWARD.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801-820-821.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ846-852.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ813>819.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ822>824.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ834-838>847.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ835-836.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-850-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804-808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ809-810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
DENNIS
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