550
FXAK69 PAFG 222238
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
138 PM AKST MON DEC 22 2025
SYNOPSIS
ACTIVE WEATHER WILL CAUSE DISRUPTIONS THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEK,
AS TWO SYSTEMS BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL, GUSTY WINDS, AND
BLOWING SNOW TO MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA. THE FIRST SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO WIND DOWN THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND WEAKENS AS IT RUNS INTO AN AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. BY TUESDAY, A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MAKE ITS WAY TO THE WEST COAST. AS IT DOES,
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WILL AGAIN DEVELOP, FIRST ALONG
THE COAST, BEFORE PUSHING EAST TO THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR THROUGH
THE DAY. BY TUESDAY NIGHT, LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE IT INTO THE
FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AT TIMES
DEVELOPING ACROSS THIS REGION AS THE MAIN FRONT MOVES OVERHEAD
WEDNESDAY MORNING. AREAS OF SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL ALSO
DEVELOP ALONG PORTIONS OF THE NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY
AS THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS ACROSS THE AREA. BY THURSDAY NIGHT,
TEMPERATURES WILL RAPIDLY COOL ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA AS THIS
SYSTEM WEAKENS AND SLIDES FARTHER EAST.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOWS
RANGING BETWEEN -20 AND -45. TEMPERATURES BRIEFLY WARM TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HIGHS REACHING ABOVE 0 IN THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR BEFORE COOLING BACK TO LOWS IN THE -30S TO -50S LATE
NEXT WEEK. EASTERLY WINDS WILL LIKELY KEEP WIND CHILL VALUES
BELOW -50 FOR TYPICAL VALLEY LOCATIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING
EVEN AS TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO WARM.
- SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY THROUGHOUT THE FAIRBANKS
NORTH STAR BOROUGH, CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND WESTERN ALASKA RANGE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. A
WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BLIZZARD WARNING FOR
LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.
- LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS
COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW
1/2 MILE AT TIMES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS BELOW
15 MPH, BUT PAIRED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- TWO WAVES OF SNOW WASH OVER THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
LATE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12
INCHES POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC BOROUGH AND BETWEEN 5
AND 10 INCHES EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND
EASTERN NORTON SOUND. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
- AFTER THIS SERIES OF STORMS COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THURSDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN
THE 10S TO 20S BELOW 0, AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR SEEING 30S AND
40S BELOW ZERO RETURN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.
- ATIGUN PASS TO DEADHORSE AND PRUDHOE BAY WILL SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PASS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AROUND
BARTER ISLAND. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS OUT FOR THIS AREA.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 1040 MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE YUKON TERRITORIES IN
CANADA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS HIGH, COMBINED WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM -22 TO -30 DEGREES FROM WEST TO EAST
ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND CLEAR SKIES, IS KEEPING SURFACE
TEMPERATURES VERY COLD, ON THE ORDER OF -25 TO 45 DEGREES, WITH
THE COLDEST TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND YUKON
FLATS. A 1002 MB LOW HAS MOVED ONSHORE OVER THE SEWARD PENINSULA
THIS MORNING. A FRONT EXTENDING FROM IT CONTINUES TO SWEEP ACROSS
THE Y-K DELTA AND OVER THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY.
THE HEAVY SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW IMPACTING LOCATIONS ALONG NORTON
SOUND AND THE WESTERN COAST THIS MORNING IS QUICKLY WINDING DOWN
IN THE WAKE OF BOTH FEATURES. FARTHER NORTH AND CLOSER TO THE
CENTER OF THE LOW, GUSTY SOUTHEAST WINDS PERSIST ACROSS KOTZEBUE
SOUND. THESE WINDS, HOWEVER, WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO WEAKEN AND
MOVE EAST.
BEHIND BOTH THE LOW AND FRONT, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EAST
ACROSS EASTERN SIBERIA AND INTO THE CHUCKCHI SEA TUESDAY MORNING.
AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHWEST INTERIOR
WITH THE DECAYING WARM FRONT AND THE APPROACHING TROUGH. AS THIS
TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD IT WILL CONTINUE TO FLATTEN AND PUSH THE
RIDGE AXIS TO THE EAST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE REINVIGORATED
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARDS THE TANANA VALLEY.
IN THE TANANA VALLEY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TUESDAY NIGHT,
BUT WILL REMAIN LIGHT UNTIL THE WARM FRONT MOVES OVERTOP THE AREA.
BEGINNING WEDNESDAY MORNING HEAVY SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED FOR A 6 TO
12 HOUR PERIOD. HERE IN THE TANANA VALLEY, INCLUDING FAIRBANKS,
6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED, WITH MOST OF THE STEADIER
SNOW FALLING WEDNESDAY MORNING TO WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT SNOW
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGHEST ACCUMULATIONS
WILL LIKELY BE ALONG THE NORTHERN FACES OF THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL ALASKA RANGE INCLUDING THE PARKS HIGHWAY AT DENALI PARK.
WE ARE ANTICIPATING 7 TO 14 INCHES OF SNOWFALL WITH THE HEAVIEST
SNOW STARTING MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL ALSO
LIKELY BRING GUSTY WINDS TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS ABOVE 2,000 FEET
LEADING TO BLOWING SNOW TO COMMUNITIES AND ROADWAYS OUTSIDE VALLEY
LOCATIONS.
ONE FORECAST CHALLENGE REMAINING CENTERS ON SNOW RATIOS. THERE IS
STILL SOME MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON WHAT THEY WILL BE. SOUNDING
PROFILES FOR FAIRBANKS IS SHOWING A 400 MB FULLY SATURATED
DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. PAIRED WITH THE FRONTAL LIFT, THERE IS
SUPPORT FOR RATIOS HIGHER THAN 20 TO 1. WINDS IN THE DENDRITIC
GROWTH ZONE COULD LIMIT THE SNOWFLAKE FORMATION, WHICH IS THE MAIN
DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE MODELS. SOME MODELS ARE SHOWING AN 18 TO
1 RATIO WHILE SOME GET AS HIGH AS 25 TO 1. THESE RATIOS WOULD
PLACE THE SNOWFALL INTO THE FORECAST RANGE. REGARDLESS OF WHAT THE
RATIOS TURN OUT TO BE, THE SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY.
THE FRONT STALLS AND WEAKENS THROUGH THURSDAY, ALLOWING SNOW TO
TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST. FARTHER NORTH, THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS
ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST, WITH SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS LIKELY. THE
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE FROM NUIQSUT AND DEADHORSE EAST TO
BARTER ISLAND. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND WIND WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES FROM ATIGUN PASS NORTH TO
PRUDHOE BAY. BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY EVEN BE POSSIBLE FOR BARTER
ISLAND FOR WEDNESDAY AS A 40+ KNOT LOW-LEVEL JET MAY MIX DOWN TO
THE SURFACE, RESULTING IN STRONG WIND GUSTS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AS THE STORM SYSTEM WINDS DOWN THURSDAY, A POTENT UPPER-LEVEL WAVE
LOOKS TO DIVE SOUTHEAST FROM THE CHUKCHI SEA AND DEVELOP INTO A
STRONG UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA BY
SATURDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO REESTABLISH THE LARGE BLOCKING RIDGE
OVER THE BERING SEA, LEADING TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG
SURFACE RIDGE OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND YUKON TERRITORIES. THE
RESULT, IS THE QUICK RETURN OF ARCTIC AIR OVER THE EASTERN AND
CENTRAL INTERIOR FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND.
THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE MAGNITUDE OF THE ARCTIC AIR,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS IS DUE TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SURFACE LOW SOMEWHERE IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF
ALASKA. SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE, COMBINED WITH THE
POTENTIAL, FOR A WEAK UPPER-LEVE WAVE MOVING NORTHWARD FROM THE
ALAKSA PENINSULA, MAY BRING SOME CLOUD COVER TO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR.
BY SUNDAY NIGHT, ANOTHER TROUGH WILL MAKE ITS WAY TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED WITH AN ARCTIC FRONT,
BRINGING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS. THIS FRONT LOOKS TO NOT BE AS
IMPACTFUL AS THE CURRENT SYSTEMS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
AS WE MOVE FORWARD.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ801-807.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ813>824.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-808-809.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ832-839>847.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ834-838.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ835-836.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802>805-808-811-850-852-853-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-810-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ809-855.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
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