615
FXAK69 PAFG 231455
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
555 AM AKST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A QUIET AND COLD MORNING FOR MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA AHEAD OF THE
LAST SYSTEM OF A SERIES OF THREE STORMS. LATER THIS MORNING A
WARM FRONT WILL BRING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, GUSTY WINDS, AND
BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST. THIS FRONT WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST
BRINGING THESE CONDITIONS TO THE FAIRBANKS AREA BY TONIGHT. AS
THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY
SNOWFALL, WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE.
AFTER THIS FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES BACK INTO THE
REGION.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO TODAY
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT TONIGHT. THERE WILL BE A RAPID WARM UP
WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO WEDNESDAY. THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S TO 40S BELOW ZERO.
- SNOW EXPECTED TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT
THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH, CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE
WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN PLACE WITH
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.
- LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS
COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW
1/2 MILE AT TIMES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS BELOW
15 MPH, BUT PAIRED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, AND WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
TODAY.
- GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
PAIRED WITH FALLING SNOW THERE WILL BE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
- AFTER THIS SERIES OF STORMS COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THURSDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN
THE 10S TO 20S BELOW 0, AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR SEEING 30S AND
40S BELOW ZERO RETURN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES OF
THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO
BLOWING SNOW.
- ATIGUN PASS TO DEADHORSE AND PRUDHOE BAY WILL SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PASS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AROUND
BARTER ISLAND. A WINTER STORM WATCH IS OUT FOR THIS AREA.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THIS MORNING REMAINS COLD ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR AS A
WEAKENING 1034 MB HIGH PRESSURE RESIDES OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORIES IN CANADA. 850 MB TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 20S TO
30S BELOW ZERO LEADING TO SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S TO 50S
BELOW ZERO. CLEAR SKIES ARE ALLOWING FOR VALLEY INVERSIONS TO
REMAIN VERY STRONG. SCATTERED FOG IS DEVELOPING WITHIN THESE
INVERSIONS AS MOISTURE IS BEING TRAPPED WITHIN IT.
A 990 MB LOW IS MOVING OVER FAR EASTERN SIBERIA THIS MORNING THAT
WILL DRAPE A NW-SE ORIENTATED WARM ACROSS THE WEST COAST. SNOW IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND THESE
SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST AS THE LOW MOVES ACROSS THE
ARCTIC PLAINS. AS THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST IT WILL PUSH
THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA TO THE EAST AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS
STEMMING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH. BY THIS EVENING THE WARM
FRONT WILL TILT TO A NE-SW ORIENTATION AS IT HITS THIS RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE TANANA VALLEY BY 6 PM TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ITSELF. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING HEAVY SNOW DURING THIS
TIME. HEAVY SNOW WILL BE FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS AND IS EXPECTED TO
BE DONE BY 7 AM WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER SNOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE
WARM FRONT, AND WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF THURSDAY.
A VERY HEALTHY DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) IS EXPECTED AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE DGZ WILL HAVE A FULLY
SATURATED LAYER OF 350 TO 400 MB, WITH FRONTAL LIFT THROUGH THE
WHOLE LAYER. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE GOOD SNOW RATIOS. WINDS
ALOFT COULD HAMPER THE GROWTH OF THE SNOWFLAKES, BUT WITH A 2000
FOOT LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. RATIOS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 20-1 TO 25-1 AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
RATIOS COULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WRAPS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR RATIOS TO CLIMB TOWARDS
30-1, WHILE THERE IS STILL LIGHTER SNOW ONGOING. REGARDLESS THE
SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FRIDAY NIGHT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENTERS THE GULF. AT THIS SAME TIME THE
NORTH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO RESTRENGTHEN WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING INTO THE CHUCKCHI SEA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS FRONT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE INTO THE TANANA VALLEY.
SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA,
BRINING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE. THIS
FRONT WOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST COAST
AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT, BUT WOULD OFFER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE BALDWIN PENINSULA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
BRING HIGHER WATERS TO THE AREA. THE SURF IS ANTICIPATED TO BE 2.5
TO 4.5 FEET ABOVE THE MEAN HIGH TIDE MARKER. WE WILL SEE WATER ON
TOP OF THE NEARSHORE ICE. COASTAL EROSION AND FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ801-807.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ835>837.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ813>824.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ817.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-808-809.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ832-839>847.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ834-838.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ810-817.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ850-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
DENNIS
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