662
FXAK69 PAFG 232217
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
117 PM AKST TUE DEC 23 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WARM FRONT IS MOVING OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON
WITH SNOW ENDING ALONG THE COAST. AS THIS FEATURE MOVES EAST, IT
WILL BRING SNOW, GUSTY WINDS, AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR, INCLUDING THE FAIRBANKS, AREA BY TONIGHT. AS THE FRONT
MOVES OVER THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING THERE WILL BE A 3 TO 6 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOWFALL, WITH
SNOWFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR POSSIBLE. AFTER THIS
FRONT MOVES OUT OF THE REGION THURSDAY NIGHT, EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO FALL RAPIDLY AS ARCTIC AIR RUSHES BACK INTO THE REGION. A
SURFACE LOW MOVE FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO BARTER ISLAND TODAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY BRINGING SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE NORTH
SLOPE. A DEVELOPING BARRIER JET WITH STRONGER WINDS MAY LEAD TO
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR BARTER ISLAND FOR WEDNESDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES IN THE 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO THIS AFTERNOON WILL
RAPIDLY WARM UP WITH HIGHS IN THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO
WEDNESDAY FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE 20S TO 40S BELOW ZERO.
- SNOW EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING THROUGHOUT THE
FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH, CENTRAL INTERIOR, AND WESTERN
ALASKA RANGE. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES POSSIBLE WITH
THE HEAVIEST SNOW CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO BEGIN EARLY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. A WINTER STORM WARNING IS NOW IN PLACE WITH BLIZZARD
WARNING FOR LOCATIONS AT HIGHER ELEVATION.
- LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS
COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW
1/2 MILE AT TIMES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS BELOW
15 MPH, BUT PAIRED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- THE LAST ROUND OF SNOW IS APPROACHING THE WEST COAST, AND WILL
MOVE WEST TO EAST THROUGHOUT THE DAY. ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR
TODAY.
- GUSTY WINDS UP TO 40 MPH WILL CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW.
PAIRED WITH FALLING SNOW THERE WILL BE VISIBILITY REDUCTIONS
TO 1/4 MILE OR LESS.
- AFTER THIS SERIES OF STORMS COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
THE REGION THURSDAY. NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN
THE 10S TO 20S BELOW ZERO, AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR SEEING 30S
AND 40S BELOW ZERO RETURN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO BLOWING SNOW.
- ATIGUN PASS TO DEADHORSE AND PRUDHOE BAY WILL SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PASS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AROUND BARTER ISLAND. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
THE ARCTIC AIRMASS THAT HAS BEEN PLACE ACROSS MUCH OF INTERIOR
ALASKA OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS IS NOW RETREATING EASTWARD AS A
WEAKENING 1034 MB HIGH OVER THE YUKON TERRITORIES IN CANADA YIELDS
TO A WARM FRONT ADVANCING FORM THE WESTERN INTERIOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THE ARCTIC AIR IS NOW MODERATING, WITH TEMPERATURES
CLIMBING INTO 10S AND 20S BELOW ZERO, AS CLOUDS CONTINUE TO STREAM
OVER THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. FOR THE EASTERN INTERIOR, TEMPERATURES
REMAIN -35 TO 50 FOR THE TIME BEING AS CLEAR SKIES HOLD ON A BIT
LONGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ANY PATCHY FOG THAT
HAS LINGERED DUE TO THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY SCOUR OUT AS
TEMPERATURES WARM, WINDS INCREASE, AND SNOW BEGINS TO FALL.
A NW-SE ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHEAST FROM A 996 MB LOW
OVER FAR EASTERN SIBERIA THIS AFTERNOON. THE WARM FRONT IS WELL
DEFINED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND IS EVEN MORE NOTICEABLE VIA
SURFACE OBSERVATIONS WITH LIGHT WINDS AND COLD TEMPERATURES FROM
THE KUSKOKWIM VALLEY NORTH AND TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S AND 30S
WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS ALONG THE COAST FROM NOME SOUTH. AS THE
UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE SURFACE LOW AND FRONT
CONTINUE EAST IT WILL PUSH THE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA TO THE EAST
AND FLATTEN THE RIDGE AXIS STEMMING FROM THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH.
BY THIS EVENING THE WARM FRONT WILL TILT TO A NE-SW ORIENTATION AS
IT HITS THIS RIDGE AXIS.
LIGHT SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE TANANA VALLEY BY 6 PM TONIGHT
AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ITSELF. BY MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THE FRONT
WILL BE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION BRINGING HEAVY SNOW DURING THIS
TIME. HEAVY SNOWFALL RATE ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE FAIRBANKS NORTH
STAR BOROUGH FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS BEFORE TAPERING OFF TO LIGHT SNOW BY AROUND 7 AM
WEDNESDAY. LIGHTER SNOW WILL FOLLOW BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, AND
WILL CONTINUE TO SNOW INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY.
A VERY HEALTHY DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE (DGZ) IS EXPECTED AS THE
WARM FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA. THE DGZ WILL HAVE A FULLY
SATURATED LAYER OF 350 TO 400 MB, WITH FRONTAL LIFT THROUGH THE
WHOLE LAYER. THIS WILL HELP TO PRODUCE GOOD SNOW RATIOS. WINDS
ALOFT COULD HAMPER THE GROWTH OF THE SNOWFLAKES, BUT WITH A 2000
FOOT LAYER OF LIGHT WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE. RATIOS ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 20-1 TO 25-1 AREA. AFTER THE FRONT MOVES OVER THE
RATIOS COULD CONTINUE TO CLIMB AS COLD AIR ADVECTION WRAPS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR RATIOS TO CLIMB TOWARDS
30-1, WHILE THERE IS STILL LIGHTER SNOW ONGOING. REGARDLESS THE
SNOW WILL BE DRY AND FLUFFY THROUGH THE WHOLE EVENT.
COLDER AIR WILL QUICKLY MOVE BACK IN BEHIND THE FRONT BEGINNING
THURSDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT EXITS THE REGION.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FRIDAY NIGHT A LONG WAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE EASTERN
INTERIOR TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS TROUGH WILL
UNDERGO CYCLOGENESIS AS IT ENTERS THE GULF. AT THIS SAME TIME THE
NORTH PACIFIC HIGH PRESSURE IS CONTINUING TO RESTRENGTHEN WITH
THE RIDGE AXIS STRETCHING INTO THE CHUCKCHI SEA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT
THE LOW IN THE GULF OF ALASKA WILL HAVE A FRONT MOVE INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR BRINGING A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW. THIS FRONT IS
NOT ANTICIPATED TO MAKE INTO THE TANANA VALLEY.
SUNDAY A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA,
BRINING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE. THIS
FRONT WOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST COAST
AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS
SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT, BUT WOULD OFFER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE
COLDER TEMPERATURES.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE BALDWIN PENINSULA
TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING, AS WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS
BRING HIGHER WATERS TO THE AREA. THE SURF IS ANTICIPATED TO BE 2.5
TO 4.5 FEET ABOVE THE MEAN HIGH TIDE MARKER. WE WILL SEE WATER ON
TOP OF THE NEARSHORE ICE. COASTAL EROSION AND FLOODING OF LOW
LYING AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THIS EVENT.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ801-807-813>824.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ835>837.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ817.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-808-809.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ832-839>847.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ834-838.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-850-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803>805-852-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ810-817.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ861.
MARKLE/DENNIS
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