374
FXAK69 PAFG 241523
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
623 AM AKST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
A SNOWY START TO CHRISTMAS EVE THIS MORNING ACROSS THE TANANA
VALLEY. A WARM FRONT IS BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW, GUSTY
WINDS, AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS FRONT WILL
MOVE SOUTHEAST TODAY, WITH IT EXITING THE REGION THURSDAY
AFTERNOON. MODERATE SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN FAIRBANKS
UNTIL 8 AM WHEN THE FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST. LIGHT
SNOW WILL REMAIN BEHIND THE FRONT, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH
TONIGHT. HEAVY SNOWFALL WILL START AT DENALI PARK LATER THIS
MORNING, AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AFTER THIS WARM
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION, ARCTIC AIR WILL RUSH BACK INTO
NORTHERN ALASKA WITH TEMPERATURES RAPIDLY COOLING THURSDAY NIGHT.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE UPPER TANANA AND
FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S TO 40S BELOW ZERO.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
- SNOW IS ONGOING THE IN THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH. SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE EASTERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE 6
TO 12 INCHES. THE HIGHEST TOTALS WILL BE NEAR DENALI PARK.
- AS OF 6:00 AM THERE HAS BEEN 5.0 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
OFFICE.
- LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH. THIS
COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW
1/2 MILE AT TIMES. VALLEY LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS BELOW
15 MPH, BUT PAIRED WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITIES COULD
DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 10S TO 20S BELOW
ZERO, AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR SEEING 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO
RETURN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO BLOWING SNOW.
- ATIGUN PASS TO DEADHORSE AND PRUDHOE BAY WILL SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PASS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LOOKING MORE LIKELY FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AROUND BARTER ISLAND. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN
EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 1000 MB LOW IS QUICKLY RACING EAST ACROSS THE ARCTIC COAST THIS
MORNING. THIS LOW HAS A WARM FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN
INTERIOR THIS MORNING. AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER TO THE EAST
TOWARDS THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO THE WARM FRONT WILL QUICKLY
UNDERGO FRONTOLYSIS. THIS FRONT WILL STALL AT THE NORTHERN SLOPES
OF THE ALASKA RANGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON, WHERE IT WILL WEAKEN
COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SNOWFALL IS OCCURING IN THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH
WITH SNOW RATES UP TO 0.5 INCH/HR. AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES OFF TO
THE SOUTHEAST EXPECT SNOW RATES TO DECREASE BUT SNOW RATIOS WILL
DRASTICALLY INCREASE. WITH LIGHT SNOW FOR THE REST OF THE DAY
EXPECTED AND HIGH RATIO SNOW, A COUPLE OF INCHES OF ACCUMULATION
IS POSSIBLE. ONCE THIS FRONT WEAKENS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RAPIDLY COOL BEHIND IT AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS. IF CLOUD COVER CAN
CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE -20S TO
-40S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEMMING FROM THE POLAR LOW WILL QUICKLY ROTATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SUNDAY NIGHT A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE IN THE BERING
SEA, BRINING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE.
THIS FRONT WOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST
COAST AND MUCH OF THE INTERIOR BY MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS WITH
THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT, BUT WOULD OFFER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.
BY TUESDAY ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST. THERE IS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD
ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODEL SUITES THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING ON TOP OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE DURING THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND FOR DEVELOPMENTS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ON THE BALDWIN PENINSULA THIS
MORNING, AS WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS BRING HIGHER WATERS TO THE AREA.
THE SURF IS ANTICIPATED TO BE 3 TO 4.5 FEET ABOVE THE MEAN HIGH
TIDE MARKER. WE WILL SEE WATER ON TOP OF THE NEARSHORE ICE.
COASTAL EROSION AND FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS ALSO POSSIBLE
WITH THIS EVENT.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FOR AKZ817.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-808-809.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ832-839>847.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ834-838.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ835.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815-861.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
DENNIS
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page