000
FXAK69 PAFG 242326
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
226 PM AKST WED DEC 24 2025
SYNOPSIS
AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW CONTINUE TO FALL ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY
THIS CHRISTMAS EVE AS A WARM FRONT MOVES TOWARD THE EASTERN
INTERIOR AND A TRAILING COLD FRONT SLIDES EAST FROM THE WESTERN
COAST. THESE FEATURES WILL WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK SOUTHEAST TODAY,
EXITING THE REGION THURSDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO LINGER
ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY THROUGH CHRISTMAS MORNING, FALLING
GENERALLY AS A LIGHT SNOW WITH WITH ONLY MINOR ACCUMULATIONS. BY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING, SKIES ACROSS THE
INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR AS THE FRONT DEPARTS, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL RAPIDLY ONCE AGAIN.
TO THE NORTH, A SURFACE LOW AND UPPER-LEVEL WAVE ARE BRINGING
SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE ARCTIC COAST RESULTING IN BLOWING
SNOW AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SLOWLY
IMPROVE THROUGH CHRISTMAS AS THESE FEATURES TRACK EAST AND EXIT
THE REGION. TO THE WEST, LOW CLOUDS BLANKET MUCH OF THE WESTERN
COAST IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL
DIMINISH THROUGH THE DAY WITH ANY BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS QUICKLY
WANING.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TODAY, WITH HIGHS AT OR ABOVE
ZERO ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THE UPPER TANANA AND
FORTYMILE COUNTRY WILL REMAIN BELOW ZERO. THURSDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 20S TO 40S BELOW ZERO.
THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES WILL STICK AROUND FOR MOST OF NEXT
WEEK.
- SNOW IS ONGOING THE IN THE FAIRBANKS NORTH STAR BOROUGH, BUT
WILL REMAIN LIGHT IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE TAPERING
OFF TOMORROW. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS THE TANANA VALLEY AND
FAIRBANKS AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 INCHES. THE HIGHEST
TOTALS WILL BE NEAR DENALI PARK.
- AS OF 1:30 PM THERE HAS BEEN 6.6 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE
OFFICE.
- LOCATIONS ABOVE 2000 FEET WILL SEE WIND GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH
THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
REDUCING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. VALLEY LOCATIONS
WILL SEE LIGHT WINDS BELOW 15 MPH, BUT PAIRED WITH HEAVY
SNOWFALL AND VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION THURSDAY.
NIGHTTIME LOWS ALONG THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 10S TO 20S BELOW
ZERO, AND THE WESTERN INTERIOR SEEING 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO
RETURN.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
THURSDAY NIGHT IS EXPECTED. THIS COULD CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW. THESE WINDS WILL WEAKEN BY
FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING ADDITIONAL WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL
AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AND WESTERN BROOKS
RANGE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
- THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN SLOPES
OF THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE WITH 4 TO 8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
- GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO PERIODS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE
TO BLOWING SNOW.
- ATIGUN PASS TO DEADHORSE AND PRUDHOE BAY WILL SEE 1 TO 3
INCHES ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS UP TO 30 MPH
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS COULD LEAD TO A PERIOD OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH THE PASS. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.
- BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY AROUND BARTER
ISLAND. A BLIZZARD WARNING IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM WEDNESDAY
MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 1000 MB SURFACE LOW NORTH OF KAKTOVIK THIS AFTERNOON CONTINUES
TO MOVE QUICKLY EAST. A WARM FRONT ATTACHED TO THIS LOW IS SLOWING
IN EASTWARD PROGRESSION TOWARD THE EASTERN INTERIOR, RUNNING UP
AGAINST A STOUT 1044 MB HIGH CENTERED OVER THE YUKON TERRITORIES.
THIS FRONT WILL STALL ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AS A
TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. BOTH FEATURES
WILL FRONTOLYSIS AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW AND
SUPPORTING UPPER- LEVEL TROUGH RACE EAST. LIGHT SNOW WILL LIKELY
LINGER INTO CHRISTMAS AS A SECONDARY WEAK UPPER-LELVE WAVE MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, HELPING TO SQUEEZE OUT ANY LINGERING
LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PERSISTENT LOW STRATUS DECK LEFT IN
THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ANY LINGERING SNOWFALL INTO TOMORROW WILL BE LIGHT, WITH
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATION AROUND INCH FOR MOST PLACES AND UP
TO TWO INCHES FOR FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE ALASKA RANGE.
ONCE THIS FRONT MOVES EAST AND WEAKENS, EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO
RAPIDLY COOL BEHIND IT AS ARCTIC AIR RETURNS. IF CLOUD COVER CAN
CLEAR THURSDAY NIGHT THEN TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE -20S TO
-40S BELOW ZERO ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH STEMMING FROM THE POLAR LOW WILL QUICKLY ROTATE
SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA BY
SATURDAY. THERE WILL BE A WARM FRONT STRETCHING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR FROM THIS SYSTEM. THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH THIS FRONT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS SOME MODEL
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE NORTHWEST PROGRESSION OF THIS FRONT.
HOWEVER, MOST RECENT MODEL RUNS ARE SHOWING THIS UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH DIGGING A BIT FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST, WITH A WEAKER
EMBEDDED WAVE / VORTICITY LOBE MOVING NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST
ACROSS THE CENTRAL INTERIOR. IF THIS TREND HOLDS, IT COULD ALLOW
FOR THE PATTERN TO BECOME A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED, HELPING DRIVE THE
WARM FRONT FARTHER INTO THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND RESULTING IN MORE
WESTWARD PUSH OF CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW, ALONG WITH A BRIEF
REPRIEVE FROM THE MORE EXTREME ARCTIC AIR, INTO THE TANANA VALLEY
FOR SATURDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
SUNDAY NIGHT A TROUGH WILL MOVE OVERTOP THE RIDGE IN THE BERING
SEA, BRINING AN ARCTIC FRONT INTO THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC COASTLINE.
THIS FRONT WOULD MOVE SOUTHEAST BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE WEST
COAST AND ACROSS PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL INTERIOR BY
MONDAY NIGHT. SNOW TOTALS WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD BE LIGHT, BUT
WOULD OFFER A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. TO THE
EAST, A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF ALASKA WILL TRACK
TO YAKUTAT WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTH OVER THE YUKON
TERRITORIES AND AL-CAN BORDER. THIS WILL LIKELY BRING INCREASED
CLOUDS AND THE CHANCE FOR LIGHT SNOW AND A BRIEF WARM UP TO THE
EASTERN INTERIOR.
BY TUESDAY ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SNOW
AND BLOWING SNOW TO THE WEST COAST. THERE IS A LARGE MODEL SPREAD
ON THE IMPACTS FROM THIS SYSTEM, BUT THERE IS AGREEMENT BETWEEN
THE MODEL SUITES THAT THERE WILL BE A SYSTEM MOVING ON TOP OF THE
HIGH PRESSURE DURING THIS TIME. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS
SYSTEM INTO THE WEEKEND FOR DEVELOPMENTS.
FOR LOCATIONS REMOVED FROM ANY CLOUD COVER OR PRECIPITATION
CHANCES, ESPECIALLY FROM THE YUKON FLATS TO THE LOWER TANANA
VALLEY AND KUSKOKWIM VALLEY, TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY FALL BACK
INTO THE -30S TO -50S FROM THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-808-809.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ834-838.
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR AKZ839>845-847.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ805.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-809-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815-861.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817-851-854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ860.
MARKLE
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