885
FXAK69 PAFG 261450
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
550 AM AKST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE SETTLING INTO NORTHERN ALASKA AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE COASTS THROUGH TONIGHT. THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL SEE A
MULTI-DAY SNOW EVENT START TONIGHT. MODERATE SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WITH THE
BEST CHANCES ALONG THE NORTHERN SLOPES OF THE EASTERN ALASKA
RANGE AND NORTHWAY TO THE ALCAN. MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF LIGHT SNOW
WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH SLOPE NEXT WEEK. THE INTERIOR LOOKS
TO REMAIN COLD AND DRY, WITH PERIODS OF TRANSIENT CLOUD COVER
BRINGING A BRIEF REPRIEVE OF THE COLDER TEMPERATURES.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND 40S BELOW ZERO. CLOUD COVER IS KEEPING
FAIRBANKS WARMER, BUT AS THE SKIES CLEAR TODAY TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN TO COOL. THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK, WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF WARM-UPS
AS CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION.
- THIS EVENING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY AT
DENALI PARK. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH. THESE
SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT.
- STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL SEE A MULTI-
DAY SNOW EVENT AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THEM. SNOW TOTALS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE 3 TO 6 INCHES. HEAVIER
AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY, ESPECIALLY IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND NEAR NORTHWAY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY. LOWS ALONG
THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 10S TO 20S BELOW ZERO, AND THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SEEING 20S, 30S, AND 40S BELOW ZERO RETURN.
- NORTHERLY WINDS ARE CONTINUING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS
COULD CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA ON FRIDAY WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH. EXPECT AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- ARCTIC AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO BY TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COASTLINE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS INTO THE 50S BELOW
ZERO STARTING TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- NORTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL GUST TO 25 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE TWO ROUNDS OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING WEST TO EAST FROM POINT HOPE TO DEADHORSE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS, BUT
WOULD BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE COLDER AIR.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A WARM FRONT EXTENDING OUT OF A TRIPLE POINT LOW CENTERED NEAR ST.
GEORGE ISLAND IS MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTERIOR. AS THIS
TRIPLE POINT LOW MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO THE GULF THE FRONT WILL DIG
INTO THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR AND WILL STALL. AS A SERIES OF LOWS
MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST ALASKA, MOISTURE WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE
SOUTHEAST INTERIOR FROM AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE IN NORTHWEST
CANADA. BY SATURDAY NIGHT AN AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS WILL OCCUR IN
THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR, AS A SERIES OF SYNOPTIC FEATURES MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A 500 MB TROUGH WILL BE DIGGING DOWN TOWARDS
THE GULF OF ALASKA, AND WITH THE HELP OF TWO NEARBY 300 MB JET
STREAKS WILL BEGIN THE PROCESS OF CYCLOGENESIS. THIS AREA OF
FRONTOGENESIS WOULD TYPICALLY ALLOW FOR LARGER SNOW RATIOS
INCREASING THE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS, BUT VERY STRONG COLD AIR
ADVECTION AT 850 MB WILL KEEP THE AIR COLUMN MOSTLY OUTSIDE OF
THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SIGNIFICANTLY REDUCING SNOW RATIOS.
THIS COLD AIR ADVECTION IS REDUCING CONFIDENCE ON THE POTENTIAL TO
SEE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ACROSS MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. TRANSIENT WAVES OF 500 MB VORTICITY
AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR CLOUDS IN THE
INTERIOR. THESE CLOUDS COULD HELP TO KEEP THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED, BUT ANY AREA THAT IS CLEAR AND CALM WILL
SEE STOUT INVERSIONS BRINGING TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S TO 40S
BELOW ZERO. THE YUKON FLATS AND FORTYMILE COUNTRY HAS THE
POTENTIAL TO SEE 50S BELOW ZERO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE
COLDEST 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN OVER THOSE REGIONS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST ARCTIC AND NORTH
SLOPE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND INCREASING
WEST WINDS. AT THIS TIME IT DOES NOT LOOK TO BRING WINDS STRONG
ENOUGH FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS, BUT WE WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH
THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY BRINGING LIGHT SNOW AND
WIND AS WELL. TEMPERATURES LOOK TO REMAIN WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR
ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH A MIX OF SUN AND CLOUDS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-802-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803>805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-851-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
DENNIS
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