520
FXAK69 PAFG 262159
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
1259 PM AKST FRI DEC 26 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES HAVE SETTLED BACK
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA AND WILL BE THE NORM WITH A FEW EXCEPTIONS
THROUGH THE NEXT WEEK. THE WEST COAST, ESPECIALLY AREAS TOWARD
WESTERN CAPES AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL SEE TEMPERATURES NEAR
20 ABOVE ZERO BY SUNDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS BRING
LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION WILL SEE A MULTI-DAY SNOW EVENT STARTING
TONIGHT. ACCUMULATIONS WILL TOTAL 3 TO 6 INCHES AND CLOUDS WILL
KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER THAN THE BITTER COLD EXPERIENCED OVER THE
LAST FEW WEEKS. EXPECT DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES
THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH LIGHT SNOW AND NORTH WINDS
GUSTING TO 40 MPH SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY CREATING VERY COLD WIND
CHILLS AND BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- TEMPERATURES ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR
HAVE ALREADY FALLEN INTO THE 20S AND 40S BELOW ZERO. THESE
COLDER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT
WEEK, WITH OCCASIONAL BRIEF WARM-UPS AS CLOUDS MOVE THROUGH THE
REGION.
- THIS EVENING LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE PARKS HIGHWAY AT
DENALI PARK. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE AROUND AN INCH. THESE
SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST INTO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
FRIDAY NIGHT, SKIPPING OVER AREAS WEST OF EIELSON AFB. A FEW
FLURRIES ARE POSSIBLE FROM EIELSON TO DELTA JUNCTION.
- STARTING FRIDAY NIGHT THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY WILL SEE A MULTI-
DAY SNOW EVENT AS A FRONT STALLS OVER THEM. SNOW TOTALS FROM
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY AFTERNOON COULD BE 3 TO 6 INCHES WITH A
BRIEF REVAMP OF SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. MODELS HAVE TRENDED LOWER
WITH SNOW AMOUNTS WITH THIS SYSTEM. SNOW WILL BE VERY FINE AND
NOT ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY. THE HIGHEST TOTALS LOOK TO BE NEAR
ROBERTSON RIVER AND EAST OF NORTHWAY. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALSO
BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS 15-20 MPH SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, SO SOME
DRIFTING OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE.
- NORTHEAST WINDS INCREASE OVER STEESE, ELLIOTT, AND DALTON
HIGHWAY SUMMITS AND IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH
GUSTS 20-25 MPH. THESE WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
VALLEYS WILL LARGELY REMAIN CALM.
- NORTH WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES WILL GUST TO 40 MPH
SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW, REDUCED
VISIBILITY, AND DIFFICULT TRAVEL CONDITIONS LIKELY.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO THE REGION TODAY. LOWS ALONG
THE COAST WILL BE IN THE 10S TO 20S BELOW ZERO, AND THE WESTERN
INTERIOR SEEING 20S, 30S, AND 40S BELOW ZERO RETURN.
- NORTHERLY WINDS AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE CONTINUING THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT AND FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THESE WINDS WILL
DIMINISH SATURDAY MORNING. UNTIL THEN, EXPECT AREAS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
- NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH.
- A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND THE SECOND ON
MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT, BUT THESE SYSTEMS WILL
BRING WARMER AIR, ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST WITH ST. LAWRENCE
ISLAND REACHING THE 20S ABOVE ZERO BY SUNDAY.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- ARCTIC AIR IS SLOWLY MOVING BACK INTO THE REGION BRINGING LOW
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO BY TONIGHT. THE
EASTERN ARCTIC COASTLINE WILL SEE WIND CHILLS INTO THE 50S BELOW
ZERO STARTING TONIGHT. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
- NORTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL GUST TO 25 MPH
THROUGH TONIGHT. WINDS CHILLS WILL APPROACH 60 BELOW ZERO AT
TIMES.
- EARLY NEXT WEEK THERE IS THE POTENTIAL TO SEE TWO ROUNDS OF
LIGHT SNOW MOVING WEST TO EAST FROM POINT HOPE TO DEADHORSE.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WOULD BE LIGHT WITH THESE TWO SYSTEMS, BUT
WOULD BRING A REPRIEVE FROM THE COLDER AIR. THIS FIRST WOULD BE
SUNDAY AND THE SECOND MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A SLOW MOVING LONGWAVE TROUGH
HAS BEGUN TO DIG SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE STATE FROM THE EASTERN
BEAUFORT SEA. JUST AHEAD OF THIS, A MOISTURE LADEN FRONT LIES FROM
ATKA TO BETHEL TO TALKEETNA. MOISTURE FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL MAINLY
IMPACT SOUTHCENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ALASKA, BUT WILL CLIP THE
EASTERN INTERIOR EAST OF DELTA JUNCTION BEGINNING LATE TONIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL STALL AND DROP 3-6 INCHES OF SNOW THROUGH SUNDAY
WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS NEAR ROBERTSON RIVER AND EAST OF
NORTHWAY. THE COLD TEMPERATURES FROM THE SURFACE TO ALOFT WILL
RESULT IN A LACK OF A DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE, SO SNOW IS EXPECTED
TO BE VERY FINE IN NATURE AND NOT ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY.
NORTHERLY FLOW ALOFT ALONG WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE REST OF ALASKA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES COLD AND
WILL SLOWLY CLEAR OUT PATCHY STRATUS WEST OF DELTA JUNCTION
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A COUPLE OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING
LIGHTS NOW AND CLOUDS TO THE WEST COAST, PARTICULARLY NORTH OF THE
SEWARD PENINSULA. THE FIRST WILL BE VERY WEAK AND ARRIVE SUNDAY
MORNING. THE SECOND WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE FROM WEST TO
EAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
AS THE FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST INTERIOR MOVES SOUTH, THE
PATTERN OVER NORTHERN ALASKA WILL BEGIN TO BECOME MORE
DISORGANIZED. THE TROUGH ALOFT OVER EASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE
WILL WEAKEN AND BECOME ABSORBED INTO A CLOSED LOW IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE WEST. THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONTAL SYSTEM MONDAY/TUESDAY
OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WILL BE KEY IN DETERMINING IF THE COLD
PATTERN IS ABLE TO REBUILD OR IF THE SYSTEM IS STRONG ENOUGH TO
BREAK IT DOWN ENTIRELY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD LOOKS LIKE IT WILL BRING CONTINUED
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA, BUT
OTHERWISE MOSTLY UNIMPACTFUL WEATHER. THERE WILL BE CHANCES FOR
LIGHT PRECIPITATION AND INTERMITTENT CLOUD COVER THE WARM
TEMPERATURES AT TIMES. WITH HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTING IN THE
INTERIOR AND LOW PRESSURE IN THE GULF OF ALASKA, EXPECT DIFFICULT
TRAVEL CONDITIONS AT TIMES THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES DUE TO COLD
NORTHERLY WINDS AND BLOWING SNOW.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...NONE.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816-851.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ817-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
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