223
FXAK69 PAFG 271021
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
121 AM AKST SAT DEC 27 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE STATE WILL BRIEFLY WARM FOLLOWING
LIGHT SNOW THAT MOVES ACROSS THE NORTHWEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE
LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. COLDER CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY
FOLLOW MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK ALTHOUGH THE FORECAST ISN'T CERTAIN.
EXPECTED SNOWFALL FOR AREAS FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA NORTH AND
EAST TO DEADHORSE IS LIGHT GENERALLY 1 TO 2 INCHES SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20S TO -40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH BRIEF WARMUPS POSSIBLE AS CLOUD
COVER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. 3 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW EXPECTED. THIS SNOW WILL BE
VERY FINE AND WILL NOT ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY.
- NORHTEAST WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH
ALONG INTERIOR SUMMITS INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE
DALTON, ELLIOTT, AND STEESE HIGHWAY SUMMITS. VALLEY WINDS WILL
REMAIN MOSTLY CALM.
- NORTH WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES INCREASE SATURDAY WITH
GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH PERSISTING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF
BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS. CAUTION
SHOULD BE TAKEN WHEN TRAVELING THROUGH THE PASSES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 0 AND -20 WITH LOWS BETWEEN -20 AND -45 FOR THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WARM BRIEFLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
MORNING WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH.
- A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND THE SECOND ON
MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS FOR EACH FRONT. WARMER AIR FOLLOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE 0 FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE 20S ABOVE
FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN
THE -20S TO -30S ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH SLOPE. THE EASTERN
ARCTIC COASTLINE IS SEEING WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 60 BELOW ZERO.
A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED. WINDS DIMINISH THROUGH
SATURDAY.
- NORTH WINDS THROUGH BROOKS RANGE PASSES WILL GUST TO 25 MPH
THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS CHILLS MAY APPROACH -60 AT
TIMES.
- A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW FROM
POINT HOPE TO DEADHORSE. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND THE SECOND
ON MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS FOR EACH FRONT. WARMER AIR FOLLOWS BRINGING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0 MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, EARLY SATURDAY, A HIGHLY
AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROUGH PATTERN EXISTS ACROSS THE STATE. A 555
DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDS NORTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA
AND A 504 DECAMETER UPPER LEVEL LOW SITS OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
AT THE CENTER OF A TROUGH. ANOTHER 519 UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR
BRISTOL BAY IS DIGGING SOUTH AMPLIFYING THE PATTERN AND SUPPORTING
A 980MB SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THESE TWO FEATURES
COMBINE AND STRENGTHEN, BUT THIS STORMINESS STAYS GENERALLY SOUTH
OF THE ALASKA RANGE. HOWEVER THIS SYSTEM DOES STRENGTHEN THE
TROUGH PATTERN IN THE EASTERN INTERIOR AND FURTHER AMPLIFIES THE
PATTERN. A FRONT THAT BROUGHT LIGHT SNOW TO THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR FRIDAY CONTINUES TO BE FUELED BY THE STORMINESS ALLOWING
LIGHT SNOW TO CONTINUE IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS ALOFT BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH
PULL WEAKER, BUT STILL GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
THESE WINDS ARE MIXING DOWN FROM THE 500MB LEVEL AND WEAKEN AS
THEY APPROACH THE SURFACE ALLOWING FOR SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG
INTERIOR SUMMITS, BUT LITTLE TO NO WIND ALONG MOST VALLEYS.
THE RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA WEAKENS AS THE TROUGH DIGS SOUTH ALLOWING
FOR SMALLER FEATURES TO MORE EASILY REACH THE NORTHWEST COAST.
TWO WEAK SURFACE LOWS MOVE OUT OF SIBERIA AND INTO THE NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CHUKCHI SEA BRINGING LIGHT SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST
COAST AND ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY. THE AMPLIFIED RIDGE MOVES EAST FOLLOWING THESE FRONTS
BRINGING WARMER AIR TO THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE. THE
INTERIOR WILL WARM, BUT NOT AS MUCH WITH TEMPERATURES STILL WELL
INTO THE DOUBLE DIGITS BELOW 0.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR TUESDAY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY, THE PATTERN
IS STILL LARGELY DOMINATED BY A LARGE TROUGH AND RIDGE, BUT THESE
FEATURES ARE BOTH WEAKENING. A LARGE SURFACE LOW AT THE BOTTOM OF
THE TROUGH SITS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND THE MOST AMPLIFIED
PORTION OF THE RIDGE BEGINS TO SPLIT FROM ITS ROOT IN THE BERING
SEA AS A SHORTWAVE LOW ATTEMPTS TO MOVE OVER THE BERING SEA RIDGE.
THIS SORT OF PATTERN IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AS MUCH OF THE WEATHER
WILL BE DEPENDENT UPON HOW THIS SHORTWAVE LOW INTERACTS WITH THE
BERING SEA RIDGE. THIS SYSTEM CURRENTLY APPEARS NOTABLY WEAKER
THAN THE TWO SIMILAR SYSTEMS THAT WERE SEEN EARLIER THIS MONTH,
BUT THIS COULD STILL BRING SOME WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALASKA NEXT WEEK. THIS LOW IS NOT AS WET AS THE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS THAT BROUGHT CONSIDERABLE SNOWFALL AND MOST SNOW FROM IT
IS LIKELY TO BE VERY LIGHT, POSSIBLY EVEN FLURRIES. HOWEVER IT
WILL BRING WITH IT COLDER ARCTIC AIR BRINGING TEMPERATURES BACK
DOWN AFTER A BRIEF WARMUP EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY, THERE ARE SEVERAL SUPPORTING FACTORS THAT
WOULD HELP THIS LOW MOVE INTO THE REGION. COLD, DENSE, ARCTIC AIR
MOVING WITH THIS SYSTEM WOULD HAVE AN EASIER TIME OF OVERPOWERING
THE WARMER AIR EXPECTED WITHIN THE OVEREXTENDED RIDGE. THE LOW IN
THE GULF WILL ADDITIONALLY HELP PULL THIS LOW TOWARDS THE REGION
AND MAKE IT DIFFICULT FOR THE RIDGE TO FURTHER STRENGTHEN. SHOULD
THIS SYSTEM MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE REGION, A COLDER AIRMASS WILL
COMPETE WITH CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOWFALL TO INFLUENCE INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURE FORECASTS WILL BE LESS CONFIDENT, BUT
TEMPERATURES ARE VERY LIKELY TO REMAIN WELL BELOW 0 REGARDLESS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804-805.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ831.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805-852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817-854.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ816.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817-854.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR PKZ851.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ851.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
STOKES
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