144
FXAK69 PAFG 281218
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
318 AM AKST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE AS INVERSIONS DEEPEN ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
ICE FOG HAS DEVELOPED IN THE FAIRBANKS METRO AREA AND IS BEGINNING
TO FORM IN SEVERAL OTHER INTERIOR VALLEYS. A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTS
WILL BRING SOME LIGHT SNOW TO NORTHWESTERN ALASKA FROM THE SEWARD
PENINSULA TO DEADHORSE LATE SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. WARMER
TEMPERATURES FOLLOW FOR THOSE REGIONS WITH A LESSER EFFECT IN THE
INTERIOR. COLD CONDITIONS REASSERT THEMSELVES LATER IN THE WEEK
AFTER THIS BRIEF WARMUP.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE -20S TO -40S ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. COLD CONDITIONS
CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEK WITH BRIEF WARMUPS POSSIBLE AS CLOUD
COVER MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FAIRBANKS AREA DUE
TO VISIBILITY OF ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS IN ICE FOG. ICE FOG IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
CLOUD COVER BRINGS IN WARMER TEMPERATURES.
- LIGHT SNOW EXPECTED IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY.
3 TO 6 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW EXPECTED. THIS SNOW WILL BE VERY
FINE AND WILL NOT ACCUMULATE EFFICIENTLY.
- NORTHEAST WINDS THROUGH MONDAY WITH GUSTS 20-25 MPH ALONG
INTERIOR SUMMITS INCLUDING THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND THE DALTON,
ELLIOTT, AND STEESE HIGHWAY SUMMITS. VALLEY WINDS WILL REMAIN
MOSTLY CALM.
- NORTH WINDS THROUGH ALASKA RANGE PASSES WITH GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH
CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. PERIODS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE WINDS. CAUTION SHOULD BE
TAKEN WHEN TRAVELING THROUGH THE PASSES.
- LIGHT SNOW OR FLURRIES, ALONG WITH CLOUDS, ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR INCLUDING FAIRBANKS ON TUESDAY AS REMNANTS
OF THE FRONT OVER THE SE INTERIOR DRIFT WEST. THIS WOULD LIKELY
BRING TEMPERATURES UP INTO THE TEENS AND 20S BELOW ZERO.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE SATURDAY. COASTAL LOW TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 0 AND -20 WITH LOWS BETWEEN -20 AND -45 FOR THE WESTERN
INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES WARM BRIEFLY SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW NORTH OF
THE SEWARD PENINSULA. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND THE SECOND ON
MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT; GENERALLY AN INCH OR
LESS FOR EACH FRONT. WARMER AIR FOLLOWS WITH TEMPERATURES
RISING ABOVE 0 FOR MOST OF THE WEST COAST AND INTO THE 20S ABOVE
FOR ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- COLDER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOWS IN
THE -20S TO -40S ACROSS THE ENTIRE NORTH SLOPE.
- A SERIES OF WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEMS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW FROM
POINT HOPE TO DEADHORSE. THE FIRST WILL BE SUNDAY AND THE SECOND
ON MONDAY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE VERY LIGHT; GENERALLY AN INCH
OR LESS FOR EACH FRONT. WARMER AIR FOLLOWS BRINGING TEMPERATURES
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE AND BELOW 0 MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, SUNDAY MORNING, THE OVERALL
PATTERN IS DOMINATED BY THREE MAIN FEATURES; A LARGE 554 DECAMETER
RIDGE IN THE BERING SEA, A 510 DECAMETER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
INTERIOR, AND A 509 DECAMETER LOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC. THE LOW
MOVES EAST INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA BY MONDAY AND DRAGS TO TROUGH
FURTHER SOUTH TO MEET IT. THIS ALLOWS THE RIDGE TO PUSH FURTHER
INTO NORTHERN ALASKA AND ALLOWS IT TO EXTEND ACROSS THE WEST COAST
AND NORTH SLOPE SUBSEQUENTLY INCREASING TEMPERATURES OVER THOSE
REGIONS. STRONG GEOSTROPHIC FLOW BETWEEN THE RIDGE AND TROUGH IN
THIS AMPLIFYING PATTERN FUELS NORTHEAST WINDS ACROSS THE INTERIOR,
BUT LITTLE ELSE SUPPORTS THESE WINDS AND THEY WILL BE LARGELY
CONFINED TO HIGHER ELEVATIONS. STRONG INVERSIONS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED IN INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL NOT BE ABLE TO BE MOVED BY
THESE WINDS EXCEPT IN LONG CORRIDORS MORE OPEN TO THE NORTHEAST
LIKE THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY. A SERIES OF WEAK SURFACE LOWS
MOVES AROUND THE RIDGE PATTERN SUNDAY AND MONDAY BRINGING LIGHT
SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST COAST AND ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTH
SLOPE.
THESE LOWS AND THE DIGGING TROUGH HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE
ENOUGH FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE LOW TO MOVE EAST OUT OF SIBERIA
INTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL CUT OFF THE
OVEREXTENDED PORTION OF THE RIDGE OVER THE NORTH SLOPE AND
REINFORCE THE GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE STATE. THIS
SHORTWAVE LOW IS VERY DRY AND UNLIKELY TO PRODUCE CONSIDERABLE
SNOWFALL, ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A BRIEF
RESPITE FROM THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN
INTERIOR, BUT ARCTIC AIR FLOWING IN BEHIND THE LOW SETTLES OVER
THE STATE BRINGING COLD CONDITIONS BACK FOR THE LATTER HALF OF THE
WEEK.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, WEDNESDAY, A
SHORTWAVE LOW ROTATING THROUGH THE PATTERN PUSHES SOUTH AND
STRENGTHENS THE GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN ACROSS THE STATE. SOME
LIGHT SNOW, FLURRIES, AND CLOUD COVER ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM, BUT IT CURRENTLY APPEARS TOO WEAK TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT
SNOWFALL OR WINDS. CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW WILL ALLOW FOR SOME
WARMING OF THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR BY DISRUPTING
TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS, BUT COLD ARCTIC AIR FOLLOWING THE LOW WILL
BRING TEMPERATURES BACK DOWN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.
THESE SORTS OF SYSTEMS TRYING TO MOVE OVER THE TOP OF A RIDGE TEND
TO COME WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE FORECASTS DUE TO THE MANY THINGS
THAT INFLUENCE THE STRENGTH OF BOTH FEATURES. CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THIS FEATURE WILL BE ABLE TO SUPPRESS AND
RIDE OVER THE RIDGE BECAUSE THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
CONSIDERABLY DUE TO THE DIGGING TROUGH AND IT OVEREXTENDING ACROSS
NORTHWEST ALASKA EARLIER IN THE WEEK.
AS THIS OVERALL PATTERN BREAKS DOWN INTO GENERAL TROUGHING ACROSS
THE STATE, THE PATTERN ALSO BECOMES SIGNIFICANTLY LESS ORGANIZED.
THIS WOULD TYPICALLY INDICATE MORE BENIGN WEATHER DUE TO THE
ABSENCE OF STRONGER MORE WELL ORGANIZED SYSTEMS, BUT GIVEN HOW
COLD THIS AIRMASS IS, AREAS OF HAZARDOUS COLD ARE VERY POSSIBLE
IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEK.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ844.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ846.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-811-856-857.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
STOKES
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