684
FXAK69 PAFG 282338
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
238 PM AKST SUN DEC 28 2025
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD IN THE INTERIOR AS ONE OF THE COLDEST DECEMBERS ON
RECORD IN FAIRBANKS ROLLS ON. THERE IS SOME REPRIEVE ON THE WAY,
ALBEIT BRIEF, AS CLOUDS AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHWARD TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THERE WILL
BE A VERY SHARP CUT-OFF OF CLOUD COVER AND IT LOOKS TO MAKE IT AS
FAR NORTH AS FAIRBANKS BUT REMAIN CLEAR NORTH/WEST OF HERE. THE
MAJORITY OF SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL BE IN THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
WHERE A FEW INCHES IS EXPECTED. THE WEST COAST WILL SEE A SERIES
OF FRONTS WITH THE FIRST ONE BEING THIS MORNING AND THE SECOND ONE
COMING TOMORROW. THERE WILL BE AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND BLOWING
SNOW, MAINLY IN THE BERING STRAIT AND UP TO POINT HOPE. THE NORTH
SLOPE REMAINS COLD WITH A LIGHT BREEZE TODAY BUT GRADUALLY WARMS
UP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW FROM WEST TO EAST.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD OVER MOST OF THE INTERIOR, LIGHT SNOW IN THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY TODAY INTO TOMORROW.
- A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT THROUGH 3 PM MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR THE FAIRBANKS BOWL. ICE FOG IS CREATING
VISIBILITY LESS THAN 1/4 MILE AT TIMES.
- CLOUDS WITH FLURRIES AND AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND MAY MAKE IT TO FAIRBANKS. THERE IS
QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW FAR NORTH THE CLOUDS GET AND
IS PARTIALLY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH OF A SURFACE AND UPPER
LEVEL HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST. STRONGER MEANS MORE DRY AIR (LESS
CLOUDS), WEAKER MEANS LESS DRY AIR (MORE CLOUDS).
- THERE WILL BE A VERY SHARP CUT-OFF BETWEEN CLEAR SKIES AND
CLOUDS.
- LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES FROM TOK SOUTHEAST
TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH LESS THAN AN INCH
NORTH/WEST TO FAIRBANKS.
- TEMPERATURES UNDERNEATH THE CLOUDS/LIGHT SNOW WILL BE IN THE
TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO.
- UNDER CLEAR SKIES, TEMPS REMAIN IN THE 30S TO 40S BELOW ZERO IN
THE VALLEYS AND 20S BELOW ZERO ABOVE 1000FT.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE BERING STRAIT COAST AND POINT
HOPE ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW ARE MAKING
FOR PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW AND VISIBILITY DOWN TO ONE-HALF
MILE AT TIMES. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE NEAR WALES.
- CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST IN THE INTERIOR WITH CLOUDS SPREADING
OVER MOST OF THE COAST BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
- A WEAK FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW FROM WALES NORTHWARD THROUGH
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, THEN ANOTHER ONE ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW AND WIND.
- MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT SNOW ARRIVES TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND
PERSISTS INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
- A GENERAL 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM SHISHMAREF
NORTHWARD WITH UP TO 2 INCHES SOUTH OF THERE. UP TO 6 INCHES IS
POSSIBLE IN THE BERING STRAIT WITH MOST OF IT FALLING ON
TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES ALONG THE COAST WILL BE WARMING UP AND MOSTLY IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS ABOVE ZERO TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY
WITH LOW 30S IN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND.
- THE WESTERN INTERIOR STAYS COLD WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE 20S TO
40S BELOW ZERO.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- COLD WITH A SLIGHT BREEZE TODAY, BUT A WARM UP IS COMING THIS
EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH MAXIMUM TEMPS IN THE TEENS ABOVE
ZERO ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST TOMORROW AND NEAR 0 ALONG THE
BEAUFORT SEA COAST.
- TEMPERATURES REMAIN CHILLY, IN THE SINGLE DIGITS/TEENS BELOW
ZERO IN THE NORTHERN BROOKS RANGE AND 20S TO 40 BELOW ZERO IN
THE SOUTHERN BROOKS RANGE.
- A WEAK FRONT BRINGS LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST TODAY
INTO TOMORROW WITH LIGHT SNOW FARTHER EAST BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- SNOWFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED, MOST OF IT
WILL BE ALONG THE CHUKCHI SEA COAST THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AT 500MB, OUR PATTERN WITH A STRONG NPAC/BERING SEA RIDGE AND
TROUGHING OVER THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND GULF REMAINS IN
PLACE THROUGH TUESDAY. A SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGHS WILL MOVE UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE, INTO WESTERN ALASKA, ALLOWING FOR WARMER AIR,
LIGHT SNOW, AND GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND NORTH SLOPE.
THE FIRST ONE IS MOVING OVER THE WEST COAST CURRENTLY WITH GUSTY
WIND AND LIGHT SNOW FROM THE BERING STRAIT NORTHWARD. CONDITIONS
GRADUALLY IMPROVE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING, THEN ANOTHER FRONT MOVES
IN TOMORROW MORNING AND CONTINUES INTO THE AFTERNOON. A THIRD
FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SNOW AND A NORTHERLY WIND SHIFT. THE MILDER WEATHER TODAY THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING WILL END BY TUESDAY NIGHT AS COLD AIR FROM THE
NORTH RUSHES BACK IN. THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT, WE EXPECT ABOUT 1 TO
3 INCHES OF SNOW FROM SHISHMAREF NORTHWARD AND UP TO 2 INCHES SOUTH
OF THERE. ALONG THE BERING STRAIT COAST THERE IS A CHANCE FOR 4 TO
6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH MOST OF IT FALLING ON TUESDAY.
THE INTERIOR WILL BE LOCKED INTO COLD CONDITIONS, ESPECIALLY
NORTH/WEST OF FAIRBANKS. SOUTH AND EAST OF FAIRBANKS, LIGHT SNOW
IS FALLING FROM TOK TO NORTHWAY AND THIS WILL GRADUALLY MOVE
NORTHWEST TOWARDS FAIRBANKS. AS EARLY AS MONDAY AFTERNOON, THERE
IS A CHANCE FOR INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT SNOW IN FAIRBANKS
AND THE IMMEDIATE SURROUNDING HILLS. THE MOST LIKELY PERIOD FOR
CLOUDS AND LIGHT SNOW THIS FAR NORTHWEST WILL BE TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THE TIMING OF CLOUDS
AND SNOW BECAUSE MODELS ARE IN A SLIGHT DISAGREEMENT WITH THE
STRENGTH OF A HIGH TO OUR NORTH. IF THE HIGH IS STRONGER, IT WILL
KEEP MOISTURE FARTHER SOUTH, THUS ALLOWING CLEAR SKIES AND VERY
COLD TEMPERATURES TO PREVAIL IN FAIRBANKS. HOWEVER, WE ARE
LEANING TOWARDS A SOLUTION THAT DOES BRING LIGHT SNOW AND CLOUDS
TO THE MIDDLE TANANA VALLEY BY TUESDAY. MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES
UNDERNEATH CLOUDS AND SNOW WILL RANGE FROM THE TEENS TO SINGLE
DIGITS BELOW ZERO WITH 30S TO 50 BELOW ZERO TEMPERATURES
CONTINUING UNDER CLEAR/CALM CONDITIONS.
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE INTERIOR WILL BE LIGHT. AN INCH OR LESS
IS POSSIBLE IN FAIRBANKS WITH A GRADUAL INCREASE TO 1 TO 3 INCHES
TOWARDS TOK AND NORTHWAY TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH NEXT MONDAY.
ON WEDNESDAY, CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO BUILD OVER PORTIONS OF THE
STATE. THE EXACT LOCATION OF THESE CLOUDS IS UNCERTAIN, BUT COULD
INCLUDE THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN BROOKS RANGE, CENTRAL AND EASTERN
INTERIOR, AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE REGIONS. LIGHT SNOW AND FLURRIES
ARE VERY LIKELY TO ACCOMPANY THE ADVANCING CLOUDS. THESE CLOUDS ARE
BEING SUPPORTED BY MOISTURE FROM A SHORTWAVE LOW MOVING OVER THE
STATE FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO THE NORTHEAST, INFLUENCING A GENERAL
TROUGHING PATTERN. AREAS THAT RECEIVE CLOUD COVER AND LIGHT
SNOW/FLURRIES ARE LIKELY TO SEE A WARMING IN TEMPERATURES,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE CENTRAL AND WESTERN INTERIOR REGIONS. HOWEVER,
ONCE THESE CLOUDS MOVE OUT, COLD TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN AND TAKE
THEIR PLACE THROUGH SUNDAY. ON MONDAY, TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO
INCREASE AND COULD REACH THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE GULF OF ALASKA BRINGS SOUTHERLY FLOW AND
DOWNSLOPES INTO THE INTERIOR.
EVEN THOUGH HIGHER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TOWARDS THE END OF THE
WEEK, CONDITIONS ARE CONSISTENTLY BEING MONITORED AS MANY PORTIONS
OF THE STATE ARE EXPERIENCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE
EXTREMELY COLD AIR MASSES THIS WEEK. THESE AIR MASSES TEND TO BE
HARDY AND DIFFICULT TO MOVE WITHOUT LONGER DURATIONS OF SUNLIGHT,
A HIGH SUN ANGLE, CLOUD COVER, AND STRONG WINDS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801-820-821.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ804>806-811-846.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR AKZ844.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ815.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ817.
HEAVY FREEZING SPRAY WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ861.
BIANCO
SRINIVASAN - EXTENDED FORECAST
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