794
FXAK69 PAFG 072259
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 PM AKST SAT FEB 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA IS BEING HELD TO
THE EXTREME WESTERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS. A FEW LINGERING SNOW
SHOWERS EXIST OVER THE WEST COAST WITH LITTLE TO NO ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATION, AND WE HAVE SNOW DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTHEAST
INTERIOR TODAY AND CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY WITH SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW EXPECTED. ELSEWHERE, THE STORY WILL BE INCREASING COLD
WEATHER WITH NUMEROUS SPOTS REACHING 30S AND 40S BELOW ZERO ACROSS
THE INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE AND TEENS TO 20S BELOW ON THE WEST
COAST. SOME LOCATIONS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND ARCTIC COAST MAY
HAVE WIND CHILLS COLDER THAN 70 BELOW ZERO HEADING INTO THE EARLY
TO MIDDLE PART OF THE WEEK.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TO FORTYMILE
COUNTRY TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
* 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN AK RANGE (EAST
OF THE RICHARDSON) TO THE ALCAN BORDER SOUTH OF CHICKEN.
AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR ROBERTSON
RIVER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE AK RANGE. 2 TO 5 INCHES
OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY SOUTH OF TRIMS
CAMP.
- VERY COLD WEATHER RETURNS TOMORROW THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MANY
INTERIOR VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO ABOUT 40 BELOW ZERO
MONDAY AND TUESDAY MORNINGS. COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE ARCTIC
VILLAGE AND YUKON FLATS WITH TEMPS NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.
* ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS KEEPING A PERSISTENT WIND CHILL
AROUND 60 TO 70 BELOW ZERO SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ALSO
PROVIDES MILDER TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- MUCH COLDER WEATHER RETURNS TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES BELOW ZERO TONIGHT, AND AROUND 0 FOR
HIGH TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST. INTERIOR
VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS
AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A STRONG BERING SEA LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WIND AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW AK.
* DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE EXTENDED PORTION BELOW.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S BELOW ZERO.
* WIND CHILLS LIKELY BETWEEN 60 TO 70 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE COAST
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 35 MPH
ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.
- WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH UP TO 30 MPH IN POINT LAY AND 40 MPH IN
ATIGUN PASS AS WELL AS POINT HOPE.
* WINDS INCREASE EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
THE STRONGEST IN POINT HOPE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 60 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE. 45 MPH WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE IN POINT HOPE.
* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WITH THE UPTICK IN WIND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A TROUGH OVER NORTHERN ALASKA HAS BRANCHED OFF A 492 DECAMETER LOW
OVER THE CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO. A 540 DECAMETER HIGH OVER THE
CHUKCHI SEA HAS BEEN NEARLY STATIONARY, BUT THESE TWO FEATURES ARE
ALLOWING FOR COLD WEATHER TO RUSH INTO THE STATE FROM THE NORTH.
AS THE UPPER LOW REMAINS NEARLY STATIONARY THROUGH MIDWEEK, IT
WILL ROTATE AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NORTH SLOPE BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY. AT THE SURFACE, WE WILL SEE AN UPTICK IN
EASTERLY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE NORTH SLOPE, THUS RESULTING IN
THE VERY COLD WIND CHILLS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
OVER THE GULF, THERE IS A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WHICH IS
BRINGING SOME MOISTURE FROM SOUTH TO NORTH INTO SOUTH- CENTRAL AS
WELL AS THE EASTERN INTERIOR. THIS STREAM OF MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE AS A NARROW BAND OF SNOW LOCATED FROM THE EASTERN AK
RANGE TO THE ALCAN BORDER SOUTH OF CHICKEN THROUGH TUESDAY.
OTHERWISE, GENERALLY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ELSEWHERE.
THE ONE CHANGE COMING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS A LOW IN THE BERING
SEA. THIS IS PROJECTED TO BE AROUND 480 DECAMETERS ALOFT, AND
NEARLY 945 MB AT THE SURFACE DURING ITS PEAK STRENGTH IN THE
CENTRAL BERING SEA. THIS SLOWLY TREKS EAST AND BRINGS GENERALLY
OFFSHORE WINDS FROM HOOPER BAY NORTHWARD AS WELL AS AREAS OF SNOW.
BLIZZARD OR NEAR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR MANY COASTAL
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE SEWARD PENINSULA.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN
THROUGH WEDNESDAY, THEN THERE ARE SUBTLE DIFFERENCES THEREAFTER.
EITHER WAY, THE WEATHER LOOKS TO REMAIN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AND THIS WILL BE ELABORATED ON IN THE THE EXTENDED
BELOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.
CURRENT MODEL GUIDANCE IS STARTING TO ALIGN MORE WITH A BRISTOL
BAY/KUSKOKWIM DELTA LANDFALL FOR THIS NEXT STORM. WITH THIS, WE
EXPECT THE FRONT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE BERING SEA LOW TO
USHER IN STRONG WINDS TO MUCH OF THE BERING SEA COAST, CREATING
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS FOR MUCH OF THE LOWER KUSKOKWIM AND YK DELTA
COASTLINES. VISIBILITIES AS LOW AS HALF TO QUARTER MILE AT TIMES
IS POSSIBLE, IN ADDITION TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH INLAND, BANDS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
SNOWFALL BEGIN TO MOVE OVER MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA BEFORE
PUSHING EAST INTO THE INTERIOR. HIGH SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED
ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS, WHILE LOCALIZED
AREAS SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE CAN EXPECT TO SEE MULTIPLE INCHES
OF SNOW. THE COLD AIR SITTING OVER MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND
INTERIOR WILL PROGRESSIVELY RETREAT NORTH THE FURTHER THE BERING
SEA LOW PUSHES INLAND, KEEPING AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BROOKS
RANGE BITTERLY COLD THROUGH THE WEEK. MODEL GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING
A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER GOING INTO NEXT WEEKEND,
BUT UNCERTAINTY IS CONSIDERABLY HIGH AT THIS TIME.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR AKZ801>810.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR AKZ811.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ836.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-806-807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805-812-816-817-851-854-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ852.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
BIANCO
SANTIAGO - EXTENDED
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