726
FXAK69 PAFG 081419
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
519 AM AKST SUN FEB 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
SNOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR WILL CONTINUE THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY MORNING, WITH SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW LIKELY DURING THAT
TIME FRAME. COLD AIR OVER THE NORTH SLOPE, WHERE LOWS ARE IN THE
20S TO 40S BELOW ZERO, WILL EXPAND ACROSS THE INTERIOR WHILE
COOLING FURTHER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS WILL LEAD TO MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR FALLING INTO THE TEENS TO THIRTIES BELOW ZERO FOR LOWS BY
MONDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS NEAR 40 BELOW IN COLD SPOTS. A SYSTEM
MOVING INTO THE BERING WILL BRING A RETURN OF UNSETTLED WEATHER BY
TUESDAY, WITH SNOW, WARMER TEMPERATURES, AND WIND MOVING INTO THE
AREA.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- SNOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE EASTERN ALASKA RANGE TO
FORTYMILE COUNTRY THROUGH TUESDAY.
* 4 TO 8 INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW EXPECTED FROM THE EASTERN AK RANGE
(EAST OF THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY) TO THE ALCAN BORDER SOUTH OF
CHICKEN. AMOUNTS AS HIGH AS 6 TO 12 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE NEAR
ROBERTSON RIVER AND IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE AK RANGE. 2
TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW POSSIBLE ALONG THE RICHARDSON HIGHWAY
SOUTH OF TRIMS CAMP.
- VERY COLD WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH TUESDAY WITH MANY INTERIOR
VALLEYS DROPPING INTO THE 20S TO ABOUT 40 BELOW ZERO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY MORNINGS. COLDEST SPOTS WILL BE ARCTIC VILLAGE AND YUKON
FLATS WITH TEMPS NEAR 50 BELOW ZERO.
* ARCTIC VILLAGE WILL LIKELY HAVE SOME WEAK NORTHERLY DRAINAGE
WINDS OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS KEEPING A PERSISTENT WIND CHILL
AROUND 60 TO 70 BELOW ZERO THROUGH TUESDAY.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE FOR THE REST OF THE INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY
AS A FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH. THIS ALSO
PROVIDES MILDER TEMPERATURES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- MUCH COLDER WEATHER PERSISTS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD
HIGH TEMPERATURES AROUND 0 THROUGH TUESDAY ALONG THE COAST.
INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 20S AND 30S BELOW ZERO
FOR LOWS AND TEENS BELOW ZERO FOR HIGHS THROUGH TUESDAY.
- A STRONG BERING SEA LOW WILL BRING GUSTY WIND AND LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS SW AK.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- DRY AND COLD WEATHER EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY APPEAR TO BE THE COLDEST WITH WIDESPREAD
TEMPERATURES IN THE 40S AND 50S BELOW ZERO.
* WIND CHILLS LIKELY BETWEEN 60 TO 75 BELOW ZERO ALONG THE
COAST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS WINDS INCREASE WITH GUSTS TO 35
MPH ALONG THE EASTERN ARCTIC COAST.
- WINDS WILL BE FAIRLY LIGHT ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING, THOUGH UP TO 30 MPH AT POINT LAY AND 40 MPH IN
ATIGUN PASS AS WELL AS POINT HOPE.
* WINDS INCREASE EVERYWHERE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY
WITH THE STRONGEST AT POINT HOPE WHERE GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 60
MPH ARE POSSIBLE. 45 MPH GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AT POINT HOPE.
* BLIZZARD CONDITIONS MAY RETURN WITH THE UPTICK IN WIND.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AN EXTENSIVE, COLD TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF
MAINLAND ALASKA, AND WITH IT, MOST OF ALASKA NORTH OF THE ALASKA
RANGE IS UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY
COLD TEMPERATURES IN THE −30S AND −40S ON THE NORTH SLOPE COMBINED
WITH WINDY CONDITIONS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS AS
LOW AS −75F. SOUTH OF THE AK RANGE, GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED
OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL
LOCATION, WITH LOWS IN THE INTERIOR DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S
TO NEAR −40F. THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR, INCLUDING THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY (INCLUDING ALONG THE AK HIGHWAY) AND PARTS OF THE
FORTYMILE COUNTRY ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING CLOUDIER AND SOMEWHAT
WARMER CONDITIONS THAN THE REST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR, WITH
SNOW ONGOING FROM TOK SOUTHEAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OVER SIX
INCHES OF TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH LATE TUESDAY MORNING
BEFORE IT DIMINISHES. LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS PARTS OF THE
NORTHERN BERING WILL BE COMING TO AN END BY THE MID-AFTERNOON
TODAY.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE OTHER IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL
TUESDAY MORNING, WHEN A STRONG LOW WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO
THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND AHEAD
OF THE LOW, BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF EASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS TO
THE NORTHERN BERING AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL BRING
SNOWFALL TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
BEFORE SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE FROM
WEDNESDAY ONWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS INLAND AREAS,
ESPECIALLY AT ELEVATION, WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH PRE-EXISTING
COLD TEMPERATURES TO YIELD COLD WIND CHILLS. BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS
IS ALSO A POSSIBILITY, INCLUDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
WHERE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS RECENTLY OCCURRED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE IN THE INTERIOR AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS (AND
CORRESPONDING TROUGH ALOFT) GETS SHUNTED BACK INTO THE NORTH
SLOPE.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
AS SNOW PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY,
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY FALL OFF (EVEN IN
WESTERN ALASKA) AND BECOME LIGHTER, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS WITH
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AS THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS ON THE
IMMEDIATE LEE (NORTH) SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE, ALTHOUGH THE
EXTENT TO WHICH THIS COULD OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW MOVES INLAND, WITH MODELS
WIDELY VARYING ON THE TRACK. REGARDLESS, A SOUTHERLY TRACK IS
FAVORED RELATIVE TO OUR AREA, WHICH SUPPORTS OFFSHORE WINDS DURING
THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE STORM'S APPROACH BECOMING NORTHERLY
AROUND THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND THEN BRIEFLY TURNING
ONSHORE/WESTERLY ON FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN.
SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR BY
LATE THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND
OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. THEREAFTER, MODEL PROGNOSIS
SUPPORTS MUCH OR MOST OF THE SNOW LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA,
WITH A WEAK LOW FORMING AND COLD AIR OVER THE BERING / CHUKCHI
SEAS PUSHING EAST. BY MID-TO-LATE FRIDAY, THIS COULD YIELD
ADDITIONAL SNOW/SNOW SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND
THE SOUTHERN NORTH SLOPE. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DETERMINISTIC /
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN
BERING SEA PUSHING A FRONT AHEAD OF IT INTO THE EASTERN BERING
SEA, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND AND EVEN MORE SNOW TO MOST OF
NORTHERN ALASKA, CONTINUING THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON TUESDAY, IT WILL
BRING WITH IT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. GIVEN THE
LIKELY STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND, THESE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING WINDS ALONGSHORE IN PARTS OF THE YK
DELTA AND ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THESE AREAS
ARE GENERALLY HEAVILY ICE-COVERED, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT SOME WATER RISES THROUGH CRACKS IN THE
ICE AT HOOPER BAY ARE A POSSIBILITY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR AKZ801>810.
EXTREME COLD WATCH FOR AKZ811.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ836.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-850.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-805-812-816-817-852-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
DS
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