182
FXAK69 PAFG 090045
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
345 PM AKST SUN FEB 8 2026
SYNOPSIS
VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF NORTHERN
ALASKA EARLY THIS WEEK, WITH BREEZY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST AND
ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SNOW CHANCES WILL PERSIST FOR THE UPPER
TANANA VALLEY THROUGH MONDAY, WITH AN ADDITIONAL 2-5" OF SNOW
EXPECTED. COLDEST LOCATIONS EARLY THIS WEEK WILL CONTINUE TO BE
ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE, BROOKS RANGE, AND INTERIOR, WITH COLDEST
AREAS DROPPING TO THE 20S/30S/40S BELOW ZERO WITH EVEN COLDER WIND
CHILLS. A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY WILL SUPPORT THE RETURN OF GUSTY WINDS, SNOW, AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES MOVING INTO THE REGION THROUGH MIDWEEK, WITH AN
UNSETTLED PATTERN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, AS SNOW CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH MONDAY FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 2-5" OF SNOW.
- COLDEST VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REACH DOWN TO
THE 20S/30S BELOW ZERO WITH 40S BELOW ZERO EXPECTED FOR THE
YUKON FLATS UP TO ARCTIC VILLAGE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER AT TIMES.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND AN
INCREASED WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES, AROUND DELTA JUNCTION, AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MIDWEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3" WITH UP
TO 3-6" FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH COLDEST LOCATIONS REACHING DOWN TO THE
20S/30S BELOW ZERO WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS. WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN WINDS, SNOW CHANCES, AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE YUKON DELTA NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
AND AT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY PEAK AROUND 40-50 MPH
WITH A BROAD 2-6" OF SNOW EXPECTED.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES REACH DOWN TO THE 30S/40S BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 50
BELOW ZERO FROM TOOLIK LAKE TO UMIAT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER, DOWN TO AROUND 50-70 BELOW ZERO. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL AS MORE MODERATE
WINDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM POINT LAY
TO POINT HOPE. WINDS WILL SEE AN INCREASE REGIONWIDE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH
SLOPE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
AN EXTENSIVE, COLD TROUGH ALOFT EXTENDS FROM OVER THE CANADIAN
ARCHIPELAGO SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OR SO OF MAINLAND
ALASKA, AND WITH IT, MOST OF ALASKA NORTH OF THE ALASKA RANGE IS
UNDER CLEAR SKIES WITH SUBZERO TEMPERATURES. ESPECIALLY COLD
TEMPERATURES IN THE −30S AND −40S ON THE NORTH SLOPE COMBINED WITH
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL YIELD THE POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS
−70F. SOUTH OF THE AK RANGE, GRADUAL COOLING IS EXPECTED OVER THE
NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE TROUGH REMAINS IN THE SAME GENERAL LOCATION,
WITH LOWS IN THE INTERIOR DROPPING INTO THE NEGATIVE 20S TO NEAR
−40F. THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR, INCLUDING THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY
(INCLUDING ALONG THE AK HIGHWAY) AND PARTS OF THE FORTYMILE COUNTRY
ARE CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING CLOUDIER AND SOMEWHAT WARMER CONDITIONS
THAN THE REST OF THE EASTERN INTERIOR, WITH SNOW ONGOING FROM TOK
SOUTHEAST AND THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ADDITIONAL 2-5 INCHES OF TOTAL
SNOW ACCUMULATION THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT BEFORE IT DIMINISHES.
OTHERWISE, LITTLE OTHER IMPACTFUL WEATHER IS EXPECTED UNTIL TUESDAY
MORNING, WHEN A STRONG LOW WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE
SOUTHERN BERING SEA. AN OCCLUDED FRONT WILL PUSH INLAND AHEAD OF THE
LOW, BRINGING A BROAD AREA OF EASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS TO THE
NORTHERN BERING AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. IT WILL BRING SNOWFALL
TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE
SPREADING INTO MUCH OF THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE FROM WEDNESDAY
ONWARD. WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT
ELEVATION, WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH PRE-EXISTING COLD TEMPERATURES
TO YIELD COLD WIND CHILLS. BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY, INCLUDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS RECENTLY OCCURRED. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO
MODERATE IN THE INTERIOR AS THE COLDEST AIR MASS (AND CORRESPONDING
TROUGH ALOFT) GETS SHUNTED BACK INTO THE NORTH SLOPE.
EXTREME COLD WATCHES HAVE BEEN UPGRADED TO EXTREME COLD WARNINGS FOR
THE NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE, WITH A COLD WEATHER ADVISORY STILL
IN EFFECT FOR THE YUKON FLATS FOR WIND CHILLS DOWN TO AROUND 60 TO
70 BELOW ZERO. WINTER STORM WATCHES HAVE ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
YUKON DELTA NORTH TO THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND AT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND
FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS COULD LEAD TO VISIBILITY
BELOW 1/4 TO 1/2 MILE AT TIMES. STAY TUNED FOR UPDATED ON THESE OVER
THE COMING DAYS.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
WEDNESDAY THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
AS SNOW PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY,
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY FALL OFF (EVEN IN
WESTERN ALASKA) AND BECOME LIGHTER, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS WITH
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AS THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN TO
TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN A
DOWNSLOPING EFFECT REDUCING THE AMOUNT OF SNOW THAT FALLS ON THE
IMMEDIATE LEE (NORTH) SIDE OF THE ALASKA RANGE, ALTHOUGH THE EXTENT
TO WHICH THIS COULD OCCUR IS UNCERTAIN. THERE IS ALSO HIGH
UNCERTAINTY ON WHERE EXACTLY THE LOW MOVES INLAND, WITH MODELS
WIDELY VARYING ON THE TRACK. REGARDLESS, A SOUTHERLY TRACK IS
FAVORED RELATIVE TO OUR AREA, WHICH SUPPORTS OFFSHORE WINDS DURING
THE INITIAL PHASE OF THE STORM'S APPROACH BECOMING NORTHERLY AROUND
THE THURSDAY TIME FRAME AND THEN BRIEFLY TURNING ONSHORE/WESTERLY ON
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS WEAKEN.
SNOW DIMINISHES IN THE EASTERNMOST PORTIONS OF THE INTERIOR BY LATE
THURSDAY MORNING, BUT CONTINUES ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA AND
OVERSPREADS THE WESTERN NORTH SLOPE. THEREAFTER, MODEL PROGNOSIS
SUPPORTS MUCH OR MOST OF THE SNOW LIFTING TO THE NORTH AS
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS THURSDAY/FRIDAY OVER NORTHWESTERN ALASKA, WITH A
WEAK LOW FORMING AND COLD AIR OVER THE BERING / CHUKCHI SEAS PUSHING
EAST. BY MID-TO-LATE FRIDAY, THIS COULD YIELD ADDITIONAL SNOW/SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR AND THE SOUTHERN NORTH
SLOPE. FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, DETERMINISTIC / ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS A LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN BERING SEA PUSHING A FRONT
AHEAD OF IT INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA, BRINGING THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIND AND EVEN MORE SNOW TO MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA, CONTINUING THE
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON TUESDAY, IT WILL
BRING WITH IT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. GIVEN THE
LIKELY STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND, THESE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING WINDS ALONGSHORE IN PARTS OF THE YK
DELTA AND ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THESE AREAS
ARE GENERALLY HEAVILY ICE-COVERED, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT SOME WATER RISES THROUGH CRACKS IN THE ICE
AT HOOPER BAY ARE A POSSIBILITY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ801>810.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ811.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ820>823.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ824>827.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ836.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-803-850-852-853.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ805.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812-816-817-857-858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ856.
SYNOPSIS...CM
KEY MESSAGES...CM
SHORT TERM...DS/CM
LONG TERM...DS
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