760
FXAK69 PAFG 091118
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
218 AM AKST MON FEB 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF NORTHERN ALASKA, WITH
WIDESPREAD TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE TEENS OR COLDER OUTSIDE OF
THE BERING SEA REGION. ON THE NORTH SLOPE AND AT ARCTIC VILLAGE
WHERE VERY COLD TEMPERATURES COMBINE WITH WINDS, WIND CHILLS OF
BELOW −60F BUT AS LOW AS −70F REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA BY TONIGHT WILL BRING
UNSETTLED WEATHER TO THE AREA, WITH GUSTY WINDS, WARMING
TEMPERATURES, AND SNOWFALL POSSIBLE ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MID-TO-LATE-WEEK TIME FRAME.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR, AS SNOW CHANCES REMAIN CONFINED TO THE UPPER TANANA
VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THIS CORRIDOR THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AN
ADDITIONAL 1-5" OF SNOW.
- COLDEST VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REACH DOWN TO
THE 20S/30S BELOW ZERO WITH 40S BELOW ZERO EXPECTED FOR THE
YUKON FLATS UP TO ARCTIC VILLAGE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER AT TIMES.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE THROUGH ALASKA RANGE
PASSES, AROUND DELTA JUNCTION, AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS MIDWEEK ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1-3" WITH UP
TO 3-6" FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH COLDEST LOCATIONS REACHING DOWN TO THE
20S/30S BELOW ZERO WITH EVEN COLDER WIND CHILLS. WINDS REMAIN
BREEZY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
- A SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY WILL
SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN WINDS, SNOW CHANCES, AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- WINTER STORM WATCHES ARE NOW IN EFFECT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT FOR THE YUKON DELTA NORTH TO THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA
AND AT ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND WHERE THE HEAVIEST SNOW AND STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY PEAK AROUND 40-50 MPH
WITH A BROAD 2-6" OF SNOW EXPECTED.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES REACH DOWN TO THE 30S/40S BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 50
BELOW ZERO FROM TOOLIK LAKE TO UMIAT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER, DOWN TO AROUND 50-70 BELOW ZERO. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL AS MORE MODERATE
WINDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM POINT LAY
TO POINT HOPE. WINDS WILL SEE AN INCREASE REGIONWIDE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH
SLOPE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
GENERALLY CLEAR AND COLD CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS MOST OF THE
INTERIOR AND NORTH SLOPE, WITH COLD TROUGHING ALOFT OVER THE
CANADIAN ARCHIPELAGO EXTENDING SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN
HALF OF SO OF MAINLAND ALASKA. PARTS OF THE EASTERN NORTH SLOPE
AND ARCTIC VILLAGE ARE EXPERIENCING VERY COLD TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
BELOW −30F WITH VARIABLY WINDY CONDITIONS, YIELDING WIND CHILLS
BELOW −60F. FOR THESE CONDITIONS, AN EXTREME COLD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WIND CHILLS AS COLD AS −70F. IN THE INTERIOR, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS AND
20S TO NEAR 30 BELOW ZERO ARE COMMON, WITH SOMEWHAT WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE NEGATIVE SINGLE DIGITS ALONG THE WEST COAST.
SNOWFALL, AT TIMES MODERATE TO HEAVY, WILL LIKEWISE CONTINUE
ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN INTERIOR, WHERE MULTIPLE INCHES OF SNOW
(POSSIBLY EXCEEDING 6 INCHES OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION IN SPOTS) WILL
BE POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A COMPACT ~970 MB LOW OVER
THE CENTRAL BERING SEA WILL BRING SOME INCREASED EASTERLY WINDS
TODAY IN THE NORTHERN BERING BUT WILL QUICKLY SWING BACK TO THE
WEST AND OUT OF THE AREA, ONLY BRINGING BRIEF LIGHT SNOW TO AREAS
NEAR/SOUTH OF HOOPER BAY/CHEVAK.
A STRONGER LOW WILL CROSS THE ALEUTIANS INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING
SEA LATE MONDAY AND BEGIN IMPACTING THE AREA TUESDAY MORNING. THE
FIRST IMPACTS WILL BE ALONG THE OCCLUDED FRONT ON THE LEADING
EDGE, WITH A BROAD AREA OF EASTERLY GALE-FORCE WINDS SPREADING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN BERING AND ADJACENT COASTAL AREAS. SOME AREAS
ON THE SEWARD PENINSULA AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND AS WELL AS AT
UNALAKLEET COULD SEE WINDS GUST UPWARDS OF 50 MPH. THE SYSTEM
WILL FIRST BEGIN BRINGING SNOWFALL TO SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA TUESDAY
MORNING AND LASTING THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE SPREADING INTO MUCH OF
THE REMAINDER OF THE STATE FROM TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT ONWARD.
WINDS WILL ALSO INCREASE ACROSS INLAND AREAS, ESPECIALLY AT
ELEVATION, WHICH COULD COMBINE WITH PRE-EXISTING COLD TEMPERATURES
TO YIELD COLD WIND CHILLS. BLOWING SNOW IN SPOTS IS ALSO A
POSSIBILITY, INCLUDING ACROSS THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST WHERE
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ALREADY RECENTLY OCCURRED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BEGIN TO MODERATE IN THE INTERIOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE
COLDEST AIR MASS (AND CORRESPONDING TROUGH ALOFT) GETS SHUNTED
BACK INTO THE NORTH SLOPE.
AS SNOW PUSHES INTO THE CENTRAL/EASTERN INTERIOR ON WEDNESDAY,
SNOWFALL RATES FOR THE SYSTEM WILL GENERALLY FALL OFF (EVEN IN
WESTERN ALASKA) AND BECOME LIGHTER, BUT THERE WILL STILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR UP TO A FEW INCHES OF SNOW IN THESE AREAS WITH
EFFICIENT SNOWFALL POSSIBLE AT TIMES. AS THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN
ALASKA GETS PUSHED OFF TO THE NORTH, SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL BEGIN
TO TAKE HOLD ACROSS THE ALASKA RANGE, WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME
LEVEL OF A DOWNSLOPING/DRYING EFFECT ON THE IMMEDIATE NORTH/LEE
SIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS RELATIVE TO AREAS FARTHER NORTH. THERE COULD
ALSO BE PERIODS OF GAP WINDS BLOWING THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE
PASSES. CONVERSELY, HIGHER SNOW TOTALS OF POTENTIALLY UPWARDS OF
SIX INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ON THE SOUTHERN/UPWIND SIDE OF THE
ALASKA RANGE WHERE UPSLOPING / OROGRAPHICALLY-INDUCED SNOW IS
MAXIMIZED. REGARDLESS, MODEL PROGNOSIS GENERALLY SUPPORTS SNOW IN
THE EASTERN INTERIOR DIMINISHING BY LATE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
THE SYSTEM'S LANDFALL IS MOST LIKELY DURING THE LATE WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY TIME FRAME, WITH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT LOW TRACK
/ POINT OF LANDFALL. MOST ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SUPPORTS A LANDFALL
SOMEWHERE BETWEEN NUNIVAK ISLAND AND BRISTOL BAY, BUT THERE IS
AGREEMENT IN THE EASTERLY OFFSHORE WINDS DURING THE INITIAL PHASE
OF THE STORM'S APPROACH BECOMING NORTHERLY (INCLUDING ALONG THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST, WHERE BLOWING SNOW COULD BE A CONCERN) BY
THE EARLY-TO-MID WEDNESDAY TIME FRAME AND THEN BRIEFLY TURNING
ONSHORE/WESTERLY BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.
BY LATE THURSDAY MORNING, STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
BERING STRAIT WILL START TURNING TO THE NORTHWEST/WEST, ALLOWING
FOR A SHORT PERIOD OF POSSIBLE ONSHORE WINDS. AS THE STORM MOVES
INLAND/OUT OF THE AREA, THESE WINDS WILL SLACKEN BY THURSDAY NIGHT
IN THE BERING SEA BUT CONTINUE ON THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. WITH
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING JUST NORTHWEST OF CAPE LISBURNE ON THE
EAST SIDE OF A SIBERIAN TROUGH, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHEASTERLY OR EASTERLY AROUND THE NEW LOW AND COULD CONTINUE
INTO FRIDAY, POTENTIALLY YIELDING BLOWING SNOW AND/OR BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS. A TROUGH/COLD FRONT RUNNING ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL
ALSO PUSH INLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY AND COULD BRING SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SNOW CHANCES TO INLAND AREAS.
LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY, A WEAKER BUT WET LOW WILL MOVE INTO
THE EASTERN BERING SEA. AS IT PUSHES EAST, THERE WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF SNOW ACROSS MOST OF THE
INTERIOR, ALTHOUGH THE TRACK COULD MAKE A SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE
ON TOTALS. A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK COULD RESULT IN A DRIER INTERIOR
AND MORE OF THE MOISTURE GETS WRUNG OUT OF THE ATMOSPHERE IN
WESTERN/SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA, WHILE A MORE NORTHERLY TRACK COULD
PERMIT MORE UNOBSTRUCTED FLOW AND ALLOW FOR HIGHER SNOW TOTALS TO
MAKE IT FARTHER EAST. WHILE THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT
STORM TRACK, MODEL PROGNOSIS GENERALLY SUPPORTS HIGHER TOTALS ON
THE BERING SEA COAST AND IN THE SOUTHWESTERN INTERIOR.
MOVING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, MODEL/ENSEMBLE CONFIDENCE IS LOW,
WITH MODELS GENERALLY SUPPORTING AT LEAST A BRIEF RETURN TO COLD
CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR, BUT SOME QUICKLY PUSH THE COLD AIR
OUT WITH A CONTINUATION OF THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH
ADDITIONAL BERING SEA LOWS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...
AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON TUESDAY (DAY 2), IT
WILL BRING WITH IT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. GIVEN
THE LIKELY STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND, THESE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE. BY
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS ARE LIKELY TO TURN MORE TO
THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING WINDS ALONGSHORE IN PARTS OF THE YK
DELTA AND ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THESE AREAS
ARE GENERALLY HEAVILY ICE-COVERED, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT SOME WATER RISES THROUGH CRACKS IN THE ICE
AT HOOPER BAY ARE A POSSIBILITY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ801>810.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ811.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ820>823.
WINTER STORM WATCH FOR AKZ824>827.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ836.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801>803-805-811-812-850-852-853-857-
858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ854.
DS
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