880
FXAK69 PAFG 100044
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
344 PM AKST MON FEB 9 2026
SYNOPSIS
A LARGE STORM SYSTEM ENTERS THE BERING SEA TODAY AND SLOWLY MOVES
NORTHEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY. AS IT APPROACHES WINDS INCREASE
ACROSS THE WEST COAST AHEAD OF A FRONT BRINGING AREAS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
COLD TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND INTERIOR WARM AS THE
STORM BRINGS WARMER AIR NORTH. PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST FROM THE BERING STRAIT SOUTH TO
THE YK DELTA. THE STORM WEAKENS RAPIDLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. ANOTHER, WEAKER, BUT WETTER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BERING
SEA LATE THIS WEEK BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO MUCH OF
THE REGION THIS WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, AS SNOW CHANCES REMAIN
CONFINED TO THE UPPER TANANA VALLEY AND EASTERN ALASKA RANGE. A
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT IN THIS CORRIDOR
THROUGH TONIGHT FOR AN ADDITIONAL 1-5" OF SNOW.
- COLDEST VALLEYS THROUGH MIDWEEK WILL CONTINUE TO REACH DOWN TO
THE 20S/30S BELOW ZERO WITH 40S BELOW ZERO EXPECTED FOR THE
YUKON FLATS UP TO ARCTIC VILLAGE. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER AT TIMES.
- SNOW CHANCES INCREASE ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND ALASKA RANGE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY, LEADING TO WARMING TEMPERATURES AND
INCREASED WINDS. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE
ALASKA RANGE PASSES, EASTERLY AROUND DELTA JUNCTION, AND
EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS AND DALTON
HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
AROUND 1-3" WITH UP TO 3-7" FOR SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE ALASKA
RANGE PASSES. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR 4 TO
8 INCHES OF SNOW
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS WESTERN ALASKA
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH COLDEST LOCATIONS REACHING DOWN TO THE
20S/30S BELOW ZERO AND COLDER WIND CHILLS POSSIBLE. WINDS
REMAIN BREEZY ALONG THE WEST COAST AND ACROSS HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THE COLDEST CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN VALLEYS WITH LIGHT TO NO
WIND.
- A STORM MOVING INTO THE BERING SEA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASE IN WINDS, SNOW CHANCES, AND WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- STRONG EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED TUESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT OF SNOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH. WINDS
SHIFT NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
AND DECREASING ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND.
- A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STORM BRINGS A WAVE OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS THE WEST COAST FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 2 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE
HIGHEST AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALONG SOUTH FACING
SLOPES ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, LOWER YUKON, AND YK
DELTA REGIONS. RELATIVELY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN
INTERIOR.
- BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER YUKON, YUKON
DELTA, EASTERN NORTON SOUND COAST, BERING STRAIT COAST, DIOMEDE,
AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND INTERIOR SEWARD
PENINSULA FOR GUSTY WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES REACH DOWN TO THE 30S/40S BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 50
BELOW ZERO FROM TOOLIK LAKE TO UMIAT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER, DOWN TO AROUND 50-70 BELOW ZERO. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL AS MORE MODERATE
WINDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM POINT LAY
TO POINT HOPE. WINDS WILL SEE AN INCREASE REGIONWIDE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
FOR MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD MONDAY, A COLD AIR MASS WITH
850 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES BETWEEN -20C TO -30C SITS OVER
NORTHEASTERN ALASKA AND A STRONG 948 MILLIBAR STORM ENTERS THE
BERING SEA. THIS STORM IS QUICKLY OCCLUDING CUTTING IT OFF FROM
MUCH OF THE WARM, MOIST AIR THAT HAS BEEN FUELING IT WHICH WILL
CAUSE THE STORM TO SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT SPINS OVER THE BERING SEA
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. AS THE STORM MEANDERS NORTH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT ALONG THE WEST COAST INCREASES CAUSING EASTERLY WINDS TO
RAMP UP ESPECIALLY FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH. LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STRONG WINDS EVEN
AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING OCCLUDED FRONT. ONCE THE FRONT REACHES
THE YUKON DELTA TUESDAY EVENING FALLING SNOW WILL FURTHER
CONTRIBUTE TO THE POOR CONDITIONS. WINDS WEAKEN AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES AND EVENTUALLY SHIFT MORE NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY AS THE
STORM BEGINS TO MOVE EAST. ANOTHER STORM MOVING THROUGH THE NORTH
PACIFIC TOWARDS THE GULF OF ALASKA DRAGS THE BERING SEA STORM EAST
WHILE ROBBING IT OF MUCH OF ITS STRENGTH WEDNESDAY EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. THE STORM RAPIDLY WEAKENS LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH EARLY
THURSDAY. AS THE FRONT MOVES FURTHER NORTH IT PUSHES AGAINST THE
COLD AIR MASS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND BRINGS WARMER WEATHER TO
MUCH OF THE AREA.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT DECREASE GOING INTO
THURSDAY EVENING, BUT ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ALONG THE WESTERN
ARCTIC COAST THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING OUT OF THE NORTHEAST. THESE
STRONGER WINDS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME MILD TO MODERATE
BLOWING SNOW CONDITIONS, BUT WILL LIKELY BE SHORT LIVED. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE SITUATED TO OUR WEST BRIEFLY WEAKENS, A COLD
FRONT IS ABLE TO MAKE A QUICK PUSH INLAND LATE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, CREATING AN ADDITIONAL CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL
ACROSS THE WESTERN INTERIOR AND BROOKS RANGE. A WARM AND WET LOW
MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY,
RAISING TEMPERATURES BACK UP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS
ABOVE ZERO FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN ALASKA SOUTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE.
WITH THIS SYSTEM, WE'RE EXPECTING TO SEE ANOTHER WIDE SWATH OF
SNOWFALL RETURN TO THE WEST COAST AND INTERIOR, WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS ACROSS THE KUSKOKWIM DELTA AND ALASKA RANGE. EXACT
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE STILL YET TO BE DETERMINED SINCE THEY'RE
LARGELY DEPENDENT ON WHICH TRACK THE LOW ENDS UP TAKING. FOR NOW,
WE HAVE MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN A SNOWIER WEATHER PATTERN FOR MUCH
OF NORTHERN ALASKA GOING INTO THIS WEEKEND. MODEL CONFIDENCE IS
PRETTY LOW GOING INTO NEXT WEEK, BUT GENERALLY SUGGESTS A RETURN
OF COLD AND DRY WEATHER, WITH SOME OCCASIONAL EMBEDDED
DISTURBANCES OUT IN THE BERING SEA.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA ON TUESDAY, IT WILL
BRING WITH IT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. GIVEN THE
LIKELY STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND, THESE WINDS
SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE FOR
AREAS FROM HOOPER BAY NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING WINDS ALONGSHORE
FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO HOOPER BAY AND ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND. THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY HEAVILY ICE-COVERED,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT SOME WATER
RISES THROUGH CRACKS IN THE ICE AT HOOPER BAY ARE A POSSIBILITY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ801>810.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ811.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ850.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822-823.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ824>827.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ832.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ836.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802-803-850-852-853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804>807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811-812-857-858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ851.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ854.
STOKES
SANTIAGO- EXTENDED
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