943
FXAK69 PAFG 101440
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
540 AM AKST TUE FEB 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STOUT LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA IS MOVING SLOWLY TOWARDS
THE WEST COAST THIS MORNING. WINDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST ARE
ALREADY BEGINNING TO RAMP UP WITH WIDESPREAD 30 TO 50 MPH WIND
GUSTS ACROSS THE YUKON DELTA AND EASTERN NORTON SOUND COASTLINE.
LATER THIS MORNING LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW WILL MOVE ONSHORE, AND
WILL CREATE AREAS OF REDUCED VISIBILITIES DUE TO BLOWING SNOW.
ARCTIC AIR REMAINS ENTRENCHED NORTH OF THE BROOKS RANGE THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WHEN A FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARDS. DANGEROUS
WIND CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THIS
HAPPENS. ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING LATER THIS WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM IS MUCH MORE UNORGANIZED, BUT IS MUCH WETTER THAN THE
ONGOING SYSTEM. CHANCES FOR MODERATE SNOWFALL COULD EXTEND INTO
THE EASTERN INTERIOR BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- VERY COLD AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THIS MORNING. CLOUD COVER AND CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL
RETURN BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM
DRASTICALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER.
- WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT, SNOW CHANCES AND STRONGER
WINDS WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES, EASTERLY AROUND DELTA
JUNCTION, AND EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1"-3" WITH UP TO
3"-5" IN DENALI PARK AND SOUTH TO CANTWELL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISABELL PASS, WITH UPWARDS OF 8" OF
SNOW EXPECTED.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- STRONG EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED TODAY AHEAD
OF THE FIRST FRONT OF SNOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND
DECREASING ALONG THE EASTERN NORTON SOUND.
- A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STORM BRINGS A WAVE OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS THE WEST COAST FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 2"-7" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, LOWER YUKON, AND YK DELTA
REGIONS. RELATIVELY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 2"-4" ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
- BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER YUKON, YUKON
DELTA, EASTERN NORTON SOUND COAST, BERING STRAIT COAST, DIOMEDE,
AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND INTERIOR SEWARD
PENINSULA FOR GUSTY WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
PERIODS OF BLOWING SNOW.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES REACH DOWN TO THE 30S/40S BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 50
BELOW ZERO FROM TOOLIK LAKE TO UMIAT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER, DOWN TO AROUND 50-70 BELOW ZERO. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERALL AS MORE MODERATE
WINDS REMAIN CONFINED TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST FROM POINT LAY
TO POINT HOPE. WINDS WILL SEE AN INCREASE REGIONWIDE TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A 944 MB LOW WEST OF ST. PAUL ISLAND IS CONTINUING TO SLOWLY MOVE
NORTHEAST. THE LOW PRESSURE IS NEARING MAXIMUM STRENGTH AS IT IS
VERTICALLY STACKED THROUGHOUT THE WHOLE COLUMN. THE WINDS ACROSS
THE WEST COAST HAVE ALREADY BEGUN TO STRENGTHEN WITH WIDESPREAD 30
TO 50 MPH WINDS. A WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
BEGINNING TO MOVE ONTO SHORE. THIS WILL BRING A ROUND OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA THIS WEEK. ALONG THE WEST
COAST WHERE WE ARE EXPECTING THE STRONGEST WINDS, WE WILL SEE
PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE STORM WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN
WEDNESDAY AS COLDER AND DRIER AIR WRAPS INTO THE LOW CENTER. THIS
PAIRED WITH WEAKENING UPPER-LEVEL DYNAMICS WILL SEE THE LOW
PRESSURE WEAKEN RAPIDLY. AS THIS FRONT MOVES FARTHER NORTH
WEDNESDAY IT WILL ENCOUNTER THE DENSE ARCTIC AIR THAT HAS
ENTRENCHED OVER THE NORTH SLOPE. THE WARM FRONT WILL HELP TO
ALLEVIATE THE COLDER TEMPERATURES. AS THIS FRONT BECOMES
STATIONARY WITH REINFORCING WARM AIR ADVECTION FROM THE SOUTH, IT
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE COLDER TEMPERATURES FROM RETURNING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IS ANTICIPATED TO BE WEAKER, BUT MUCH WETTER THAN THE CURRENT
STORM. WHILE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY TO BE 25 TO 35 MPH ALONG
THE COAST, HEAVIER SNOWFALL COULD CREATE PERIODS OF REDUCED
VISIBILITY. BY SATURDAY, SNOW IS ANTICIPATED TO BE IN THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THERE IS LARGE MODEL SPREAD ON THE AMOUNT OF SNOW, BUT
WITH WEAK WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WE SHOULD SEE VERY LITTLE IN
DOWNSLOPING HERE IN THE TANANA VALLEY. SNOW TOTALS WILL BE LARGELY
DEPENDENT ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE CAN SUCCESSFULLY GET FAR ENOUGH
INTO THE INTERIOR, AS WELL AS THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE SNOW.
WITH A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY IT INCREASES THE MODEL SPREAD OF SNOW
TOTALS ESPECIALLY THIS FAR OUT. AS WE MOVE CLOSER AND WE GET INTO
THE RANGE OF THE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS, WE WILL GET A MUCH
BETTER IDEA ON THE SNOW TOTALS AND LOCATIONS OF THE HIGHER SNOW
TOTALS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
AS A LOW MOVES INTO THE EASTERN BERING SEA TODAY, IT WILL BRING
WITH IT A FAIRLY WIDE AREA OF GALE-FORCE WINDS. GIVEN THE LIKELY
STORM TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF NUNIVAK ISLAND, THESE WINDS SHOULD
REMAIN LARGELY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY AND OFFSHORE FOR AREAS
FROM HOOPER BAY NORTH. BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS
SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD BRING WINDS ALONGSHORE FROM
THE YUKON DELTA TO HOOPER BAY AND ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN ST.
LAWRENCE ISLAND. THESE AREAS ARE GENERALLY HEAVILY ICE-COVERED,
WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT SOME WATER
RISES THROUGH CRACKS IN THE ICE AT HOOPER BAY ARE A POSSIBILITY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ801>810.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ811.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ850.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822-823.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ824>827.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ832.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802-803.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ804.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ812-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815-860.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ816.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ851-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ852-853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ859.
DENNIS
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