663
FXAK69 PAFG 102300
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
200 PM AKST TUE FEB 10 2026
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG STORM IN THE BERING SEA IS PRODUCING STRONG EASTERLY
WINDS ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND IS EXTENDING A SNOW PRODUCING
FRONT ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN ALASKA. THIS FRONT CONTINUES NORTH AND
BRINGS WARMER WEATHER TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR AS IT MOVES NORTH
THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY. COLD CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ALONG MUCH
OF THE NORTH SLOPE WHERE TEMPERATURES WARM SLOWLY THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK. THE STORM WEAKENS RAPIDLY LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE BERING SEA THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY THAT IS EXPECTED TO BE MUCH WEAKER, BUT WETTER. WINDS ARE
NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A HAZARD WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT
MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MODERATE TO POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND MOST OF THE INTERIOR THIS
WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY MORNING CLOUD COVER AND
CHANCES FOR SNOW WILL RETURN BY THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO WARM DRASTICALLY WITH THE ARRIVAL OF CLOUD COVER.
- WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE WARM FRONT, SNOW CHANCES AND STRONGER
WINDS WILL BEGIN THIS AFTERNOON. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE
SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE ALASKA RANGE PASSES, EASTERLY AROUND DELTA
JUNCTION, AND EASTERLY/NORTHEASTERLY ACROSS THE WHITE MOUNTAINS
AND DALTON HIGHWAY SUMMITS.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1"-3" WITH UP TO
3"-5" IN DENALI PARK AND SOUTH TO CANTWELL. A WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ISABELL PASS, WITH UPWARDS OF 8" OF
SNOW EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND
(SATURDAY), HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO BE WEAKER
AND CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE, LEADING TO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- STRONG EASTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 55 MPH EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
AHEAD OF THE FIRST FRONT OF SNOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTH THIS
MORNING AND THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG THE COAST FROM THE SEWARD PENINSULA SOUTH. WINDS SHIFT
NORTHERLY WEDNESDAY INCREASING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT AND
ALONG ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND DECREASING ALONG THE EASTERN
NORTON SOUND, YUKON DELTA, AND LOWER YUKON.
- A FRONT EXTENDING FROM THE STORM BRINGS A WAVE OF NEW SNOW
ACROSS THE WEST COAST FROM THE SOUTH TO THE NORTH TUESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. 2"-7" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED WITH THE HIGHEST
AMOUNTS EXPECTED TO THE SOUTHWEST AND ALONG SOUTH FACING SLOPES
ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA, LOWER YUKON, AND YK DELTA
REGIONS. RELATIVELY LIGHTER AMOUNTS OF 2"-4" ARE EXPECTED FOR
MOST OF THE REST OF THE WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR.
- BLIZZARD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER YUKON, YUKON
DELTA, EASTERN NORTON SOUND COAST, BERING STRAIT COAST, DIOMEDE,
AND ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
ISSUED FOR GUSTY WINDS, MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL AND PERIODS
OF BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA AND WITHIN
THE INTERIOR SEWARD PENINSULA.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE WEST COAST AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK (FRIDAY), HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO BE
WEAKER AND CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE, LEADING TO HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
COASTAL HAZARDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDWEEK, AS
TEMPERATURES REACH DOWN TO THE 30S/40S BELOW ZERO TO AROUND 50
BELOW ZERO FROM TOOLIK LAKE TO UMIAT. WIND CHILLS WILL BE EVEN
COLDER, DOWN TO AROUND 50-70 BELOW ZERO. EXTREME COLD WARNINGS
REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST WEDNESDAY.
- LIGHTER WINDS INCREASE REGIONWIDE TUESDAY EVENING INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE
WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED
FOR BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE ARCTIC COAST EAST OF POINT LAY. A
BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
INCLUDING POINT HOPE AND POINT LAY.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AT THE START OF THE FORECAST PERIOD TUESDAY, A STRONG 948 MILLIBAR LOW
IN THE BERING SEA HAS CAUSED STRONG EASTERLY WINDS ACROSS MUCH OF
THE WEST COAST AND IS EXTENDING AN OCCLUDED FRONT NORTH BRINGING
SNOW ACROSS MUCH OF THE WEST COAST. THIS STORM STALLS IN THE
BERING SEA THROUGH MOST OF WEDNESDAY SLOWLY WEAKENING AFTER THE
OCCLUDED FRONT CUTS OFF ITS WARM, MOIST AIR. ANOTHER LOW MOVING
THROUGH THE NORTH PACIFIC INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA WEDNESDAY
RAPIDLY STRENGTHENS AS IT EFFECTIVELY HIJACKS MUCH OF THE SUPPORT
THAT HAD BEEN FUELING THE BERING SEA LOW. THE BERING SEA LOW DRAGS
EAST AND RAPIDLY WEAKENS CAUSING WINDS TO SHIFT TO THE NORTH ALONG
THE WEST COAST LATE WEDNESDAY. ALONG THE NORTHERNMOST PART OF THE
SYSTEM SOME CYCLOGENESIS ALLOWS PART OF THE OCCLUDED FRONT TO
SUSTAIN ITSELF OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST AS A MUCH WEAKER
SYSTEM. THIS WILL BRING LIGHT SNOW TO THE WESTERN ARCTIC AND
SUSTAIN THE WEAKENING WINDS ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY. SHOULD THIS SMALLER SYSTEM PROVE RESILIENT SOME SNOW MAY
REACH EAST INTO THE CENTRAL BROOKS RANGE AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE ARCTIC COAST, BUT BY THAT POINT SNOWFALL WILL BE VERY LIGHT
AND WINDS HAVE WANED. ANOTHER, WEAKER, LOW ENTERS THE WESTERN
BERING SEA LATE THURSDAY AND BRINGS SIGNIFICANTLY LIGHTER WINDS
AND MORE WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL TO THE WEST COAST BY FRIDAY.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
A NEW SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO MOVE INTO THE BERING SEA AND TOWARDS THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY. WE ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO BE
WEAKER, BUT CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE CURRENT STORM. A WEAKER
SYSTEM MEANS WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL RANGE FROM 25 TO 35
MPH. MORE MOISTURE WILL MEAN HEAVIER SNOWFALL, ESPECIALLY FOR
COMMUNITIES ALONG THE WEST COAST, POTENTIALLY LEADING TO PERIODS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY. SNOW IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN REACHING THE INTERIOR
BY SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, MODELS ARE NOT IN AGREEMENT IN REGARDS
TO SNOW AMOUNT. SNOW TOTALS WILL DEPEND ON HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES
IT TO THE INTERIOR. SURFACE WINDS COULD STRENGTHEN AS HIGH AS 25 MPH
FOR PARTS OF THE INTERIOR AS THE WARM FRONT PASSES. SINCE THIS
SYSTEM IS ASSOCIATED WITH MORE MOISTURE IN COMBINATION WITH WEAK
WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, DOWNSLOPING IS NOT A BIG CONCERN FOR THE
TANANA VALLEY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
MOSTLY EASTERLY WINDS FROM A STORM IN THE BERING SEA ARE CAUSING
GALE FORCE MARINE WINDS AND STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WINDS SHIFT MORE TO THE NORTH, WHICH COULD
BRING WINDS ALONGSHORE FROM THE YUKON DELTA TO HOOPER BAY AND
ONSHORE OVER NORTHERN ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND. THESE AREAS ARE
GENERALLY HEAVILY ICE-COVERED, WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL
FLOODING POTENTIAL, BUT SOME WATER RISES THROUGH CRACKS IN THE ICE
AT HOOPER BAY ARE A POSSIBILITY.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ801>810.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ802>805.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ811.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ850.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822-823.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ824>827.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ832.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-809-855.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802-804.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805-852-853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ810.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-857.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ813-859.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ814-815-860-861.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ816.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ851.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
STOKES
LEWIS- EXTENDED
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