161
FXAK69 PAFG 111409
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
509 AM AKST WED FEB 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILLS ARE CONTINUING THIS MORNING ACROSS THE
NORTH SLOPE, WITH POINT LAY BEING THE COLDEST COMMUNITY WITH A
-75 DEGREE WIND CHILL. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE FOR THE
NORTH SLOPE THIS AFTERNOON, AS A FRONT BRINGS IN SOUTHERLY FLOW
AND CHANCES FOR SNOW. A RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE
BERING SEA IS CONTINUING TO BRING SNOW ACROSS THE INTERIOR. THE
EASTERLY WINDS ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL WEAKEN AS THEY TURN
NORTHERLY LATER THIS EVENING. THERE WILL BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM. FRIDAY WILL SEE THE NEXT STORM MOVE ONTO
THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM WILL BE WEAKER, BUT WETTER THAN THE
ONGOING STORM. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE MUCH OF A HAZARD WITH
THIS NEXT SYSTEM, BUT MORE WIDESPREAD AREAS OF MODERATE TO
POTENTIALLY HEAVY SNOW ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE WEST COAST AND MOST
OF THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A WEAK TANANA VALLEY JET IS CONTINUING THIS MORNING WITH WIND
GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH AT DELTA JUNCTION. THIS WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH TODAY, AND WEAKEN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
- SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH THURSDAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN
INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED TO BE AROUND 1"-3" WITH UP TO 3"-5" IN
DENALI PARK AND SOUTH TO CANTWELL. A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR ISABELL PASS, WITH UPWARDS OF 8" OF SNOW
EXPECTED.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE INTERIOR THIS WEEKEND
(SATURDAY), HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO BE WEAKER
AND CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE, LEADING TO HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS.
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- WINDS SHIFT NORTHERLY TODAY INCREASING THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT
AND ALONG ST. LAWRENCE ISLAND, AND DECREASING ALONG THE EASTERN
NORTON SOUND, YUKON DELTA, AND LOWER YUKON.
- SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE REGION AS ANOTHER WEAK WAVE OF
ENERGY MOVES THROUGH. WIDESPREAD ADDITONAL 2"-4" OF SNOW IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY. THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA HOWEVER
WILL SEE HEAVIER SNOWFALL FROM UPSLOPING. AN ADDITIONAL 5"-9"
OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE FROM NOME TO ELIM.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BEGIN IMPACTING THE WEST COAST AT THE END OF
THIS WEEK (FRIDAY), HOWEVER WE ARE EXPECTING THIS SYSTEM TO BE
WEAKER AND CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE, LEADING TO HIGHER SNOWFALL
TOTALS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH THIS SYSTEM.
COASTAL HAZARDS ARE NOT EXPECTED FOR THIS SYSTEM.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE..
- VERY COLD AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING, AS TEMPERATURES REACH DOWN TO THE 30S/40S BELOW ZERO TO
AROUND 50 BELOW ZERO FROM TOOLIK LAKE TO UMIAT. WIND CHILLS WILL
BE EVEN COLDER, DOWN TO AROUND 50-70 BELOW ZERO.
- INCREASING EASTERLY WINDS THIS MORNING ARE LEADING TO AREAS WITH
BLOWING SNOW AND LOCALIZED BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST. WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR BLOWING SNOW ALONG THE
ARCTIC COAST EAST OF POINT LAY. A BLIZZARD WARNING HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST INCLUDING POINT HOPE AND
POINT LAY.
- LIGHT SNOW CHANCES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
BROOKS RANGE AND NORTH SLOPE WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. TOTAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF UP TO AN INCH ALONG THE NORTH SLOPE AND 1 TO 3
INCHES IN THE BROOKS RANGE.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A RAPIDLY WEAKENING LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA IS CONTINUING
TO WOBBLE EASTWARD. AT THE BASE OF THE LONGWAVE TROUGH THAT THE
BERING SEA LOW IS ASSOCIATED WITH; WE WILL SEE AN AREA OF
CYCLOGENESIS AS THE ENERGY ROTATES INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA. THIS
NEW CYCLONE WILL CUT OFF THE TROPICAL MOISTURE FEED. REMNANT
ENERGY FROM THE BERING SEA LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FEED INTO THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, BRINGING CONTINUED SNOW CHANCES FOR
THE REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. AT THE LOWER LEVELS THERE IS STILL A
SIZABLE MOISTURE PLUME THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE WEST COAST.
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW WE WILL SEE UPSLOPE PROCESSES ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA BRINGING HIGHER SNOW TOTALS. EVEN WITH
WEAKENING WINDS, VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS
AT TIMES IN THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA DUE TO HIGHER SNOW
RATES.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THIS IS A FAIRLY DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS THERE IS NO
CLOSED OFF LOW. THERE IS WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION AS THE SYSTEM
MOVES ONTO THE MAINLAND, BUT A SECONDARY WAVE OF ENERGY TO IT'S
SOUTH WILL KEEP MOST OF THE WARM AIR ADVECTION OUT OF NORTHERN
ALASKA. ALL OF THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THERE WILL BE
SPLIT FLOW AS THIS FEATURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. THIS
SPLIT FLOW IS CAUSING VERY LARGE MODEL SPREAD ON SNOW TOTALS
ACROSS NORTHERN ALASKA. WITH VERY STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION BEHIND
THIS FEATURE WE COULD SEE SNOW RATIOS HIGHER THAN MODELS ARE
ANTICIPATING, WHICH WOULD INEVITABLY INCREASE SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH
WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WE ARE NOT ANTICIPATING DOWNSLOPING TO BE AN
ISSUE IN THE TANANA VALLEY. WITH THIS WE CAN'T RULE OUT THE
POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL IN THE
TANANA VALLEY THIS WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
EARLY NEXT WEEK RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO BUILD OVER THE WEST COAST.
BY MONDAY MORNING NORTHERLY FLOW WILL RETURN TO THE EASTERN
INTERIOR. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER AND DRIER AIR TO MOVE INTO
THE REGION. THIS COLDER AIR IS ANTICIPATED TO REMAIN THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK. ON THE WEST COAST HOWEVER THE RIDGE AXIS WILL ALLOW
FOR SYSTEMS TO RIDE OVERTOP IT. THERE ARE SIGNALS WE WILL SEE
ANOTHER SERIES OF LOWS BRINGING CHANCES FOR WIND AND SNOW TO THE
WEST COAST. THE ANTICIPATED POSITION OF THE NORTH PACIFIC HIGH
WOULD ALLOW FOR THIS TRAJECTORY SO ANY LOW PRESSURE THAT MOVES
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PACIFIC OR EASTERN SIBERIA WOULD BE FORCED
INTO THE BERING. THESE LOWS LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY WEAK AS THERE IS
SPLIT FLOW IN THE NORTH PACIFIC SPLITTING THE ENERGY.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT NORTHERLY LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS
WIND SHIFT WILL COINCIDE WITH THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON. THE
AREA OF CONCERN WILL REMAIN HOOPER BAY TO THE YUKON DELTA. WHILE
ICE COVERAGE SHOULD HELP TO ALLEVIATE MUCH OF THE COASTAL THREAT,
WATER ON TOP OF THE ICE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS
WILL SEE A STEADY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ801>810.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ802>805-850.
EXTREME COLD WARNING FOR AKZ811.
WIND ADVISORY FOR AKZ849.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822-823.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ824>827.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ832.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ833.
PK...BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ801-809-810-813>815-855-859>861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806-807-811-856-857.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ816-851.
STORM WARNING FOR PKZ817-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ858.
DENNIS
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