967
FXAK69 PAFG 112259
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
159 PM AKST WED FEB 11 2026
SYNOPSIS
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE BERING SEA CURRENTLY NORTHWEST OF
ST. PAUL ISLAND IS SLOWLY TRAVELING EASTWARD AND BRINGING LIGHT
TO MODERATE SNOW OVER THE STATE. AN EXTENDED WARM FRONT FROM THE
LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TRAVELING NORTHWARD TODAY AND INTO TOMORROW.
WE ARE EXPECTING THE NORTH SLOPE TO REMAIN FAIRLY COLD WITH GUSTY
WINDS THROUGHOUT THIS TIME, LEADING TO DANGEROUSLY COLD WIND
CHILLS PERSISTING. AS THE LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO TRAVEL
EASTWARD, IT WILL WEAKEN AND THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL TRAVEL
EASTWARD OVER THE STATE, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT SNOW
THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FRIDAY WILL BRING
YET ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM THE BERING SEA INTO THE WEST
COAST. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER, HOWEVER IT SHOULD
CONTAIN MORE MOISTURE THAN THE CURRENT SYSTEM. WE EXPECT
GENERALLY HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS FOR THE WEST COAST TO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR AND SOME GUSTY WINDS, JUST NOT AS STRONG AS THEY HAVE
BEEN.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- ISOLATED LIGHT SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING FOR
THE CENTRAL INTERIOR, THOUGH FAIRBANKS WILL NOT SEE MUCH MORE
ACCUMULATION.
- A QUICK-HITTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
TRAVEL EASTWARD AND BE OUT OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME
SPOTS.
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA WITH TOTALS AS
HIGH AS 12". GUSTY EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TO PEAK AS HIGH AS 60 MPH THE COLD FRONT PASSES OVER THE WEST
COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR THURSDAY, LEADING TO POTENTIAL
BLIZZARD CONDITIONS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST BEGINNING
FRIDAY MORNING WITH LINGERING LIGHT SNOW PERSISTING UNTIL SUNDAY
MORNING. AS THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES, NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THEN SHIFT TO MORE WESTERLY AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- EXTREME COLD WARNINGS HAVE BEEN DOWNGRADED TO COLD WEATHER
ADVISORIES FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS 65 DEGREES BELOW ZERO
PERSISTING. NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS WILL DECREASE FRIDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE RESTRENGTHENING EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
- AS THE WARM FRONT MOVES NORTH OVER THE BROOKS RANGE, A COLD
FRONT WILL PASS OVER THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST BEGINNING THURSDAY
AFTERNOON AND TRAVEL EASTWARD OUT OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY
EVENING. SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST AROUND SOUTHERN SLOPES OF
THE WESTERN BROOKS RANGE.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WESTERN ARCTIC COAST
EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. MOST SNOWFALL WILL REMAIN IN OR BELOW
THE BROOKS RANGE RANGING FROM 2-4".
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
AS THE LOW PRESSURE IN THE BERING SEA CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD
AND WEAKEN, THE ENERGY WILL BECOME THE BASE OF AN ELONGATED
TROUGH THAT FORMS FROM SIBERIA SOUTH THROUGH THE BERING SEA. AS
THE TROUGH TRAVELS EASTWARD OVER THE STATE ON THURSDAY, IT WILL
BRING LIGHT SNOW AND SOME GUSTY WINDS WITH IT. THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHERN
SEWARD PENINSULA DUE TO SOUTHERLY WINDS AND UPSLOPE FLOW LEADING
TO OROGRAPHIC LIFT. THESE GUSTY WINDS COMBINED WITH THE LIGHT
SNOWFALL COULD LEAD TO POTENTIAL BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FOR AREAS
ALONG THE WEST COAST. AFTER THIS TROUGH PASSES, THERE WILL BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS BEFORE ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE
WEST COAST ON FRIDAY MORNING.
THIS NEW LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT WILL BEGIN APPROACHING THE WEST
COAST FRIDAY MORNING IS EXPECTED TO BE WEAKER, BUT CONTAIN MORE
MOISTURE. THIS MEANS THAT WE'RE EXPECTING HIGHER SNOWFALL TOTALS
THIS WEEKEND THAN WE RECEIVED THIS WEEK. THE WARM FRONT WILL
APPROACH THE WEST COAST FRIDAY MORNING AND THERE WILL BE TWO
AREAS OF ENERGY WITHIN THE TROUGH. MODELS AREN'T HANDLING THE
LOCATIONS OF THESE ENERGY CENTERS VERY WELL. SINCE THERE'S LARGE
DISAGREEMENTS IN THE LOCATIONS, THERE'S ALSO DISAGREEMENTS IN
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS. WE ARE EXPECTING SNOWFALL TO CONTINUE TO BE
WIDESPREAD ACROSS THE WEST COAST THROUGH THE INTERIOR, HOWEVER,
THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY ABOUT WHERE AND WHEN LOCALLY
HEAVIER SNOWFALL WILL OCCUR. DOWNSLOPING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE AN
ISSUE, SO IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AREAS WITHIN THE TANANA VALLEY COULD
SEE HEAVY SNOWFALL AT TIMES THIS WEEKEND.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD SATURDAY, A WEAK LOW
CONTINUES TO PUSH MOISTURE EAST DEEPER INTO THE INTERIOR. WIDESPREAD
SNOWFALL OF MULTIPLE INCHES IS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE INTERIOR
AS THIS WEAK SYSTEM CONTINUES EAST. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN FOR THIS SYSTEM MAKING SNOWFALL TOTALS DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE AT
THIS TIME. THIS SNOW ENDS BY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SOME SCATTERED SNOW
SHOWERS REMAINING THROUGH THE END OF SUNDAY. A RIDGE PATTERN
DEVELOPS ALONG THE WEST COAST BEHIND THIS SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK
EXTENDING FROM A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM IN THE NORTH PACIFIC.
THIS FEATURE HELPS BLOCK ADDITIONAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS FROM
REACHING MUCH OF THE WEST COAST, BUT ALSO SUPPORTS MORE NORTHERLY
FLOW ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF ALASKA COOLING TEMPERATURES ONCE
MORE ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE AND INTERIOR.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL...
THE HIGH TIDE THIS AFTERNOON WILL COINCIDE WITH THE WINDS SHIFTING
TO A MORE NORTHERLY DIRECTION. WHILE ICE COVERAGE SHOULD HELP TO
ALLEVIATE MUCH OF THE COASTAL THREAT, WATER ON TOP OF THE ICE IS
POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY FOR HOOPER BAY AND THE YK DELTA.
WATER LEVELS WILL SEE A STEADY DECREASE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801>810.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ802>805.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ850.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ822>826.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ827.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ802.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ803.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804-808-809-813-814-855-859-860.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ805.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ806.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ807.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ811-854.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812-857-858.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ815-861.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ816-817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ850-856.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ851.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ852.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ853.
LEWIS
STOKES - EXTENDED
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