834
FXAK69 PAFG 121515
AFDAFG
NORTHERN ALASKA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FAIRBANKS AK
615 AM AKST THU FEB 12 2026
SYNOPSIS
A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL CONTINUE
ITS WOBBLE TO THE EAST THIS MORNING. THIS EVENING THIS FEATURE
WILL GET SWEPT INTO UPPER-LEVEL FLOW AND WILL QUICKLY MOVE EAST.
UNTIL THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR, WITH SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS
DUE TO GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS. AS THE FEATURE MOVES ACROSS NORTHERN
ALASKA, THIS SNOW WILL FOLLOW SUIT, BUT WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER THAN
THE WEST COAST. STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS AND LIGHT SNOW ALONG
THE CHUCKCHI SEA COASTLINE WILL CREATE PERIODS OF BLIZZARD
CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER LOW WILL MOVE THROUGH THE
BERING SEA AND ONTO THE WEST COAST FRIDAY. THIS LOW WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST BRINGING MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS INTERIOR
ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THERE ARE STILL LARGE MODEL SPREADS WITH
SNOW ACCUMULATIONS, BUT WIDESPREAD 4"-8" OF SNOW IS EXPECTED.
KEY WEATHER MESSAGES
CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR...
- A QUICK-HITTING COLD FRONT WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT
SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE CENTRAL INTERIOR AND
TRAVEL EASTWARD AND BE OUT OF THE STATE BY FRIDAY EVENING.
- ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CENTRAL
INTERIOR BRINGING WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL
BEGINNING LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. EXACT
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN SPECIFIC LOCATIONS REMAIN UNCERTAIN.
SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW COULD REMAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND IN SOME
SPOTS.
- THE UPPER KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO THE TANANA VALLEY COULD SEE
ELEVATED WIND GUSTS ON SATURDAY. THERE COULD BE WIND GUSTS IN
THE VALLEYS OF 20 TO 30 MPH. LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WOULD
SEE WINDS UP TO 40 MPH.
- COLDER AND DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE INTERIOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK FOLLOWING WIDESPREAD SNOWFALL. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL
LIKELY FALL BACK INTO THE NEGATIVE DOUBLE DIGITS FOR MUCH OF THE
INTERIOR BY MIDWEEK NEXT WEEK.
WEST COAST AND WESTERN INTERIOR...
- LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEST
COAST TODAY. SNOWFALL WILL BE HEAVIEST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF
THE SOUTHERN SEWARD PENINSULA WITH ADDITIONAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS OF 4"-6".
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE WEST COAST BEGINNING
FRIDAY MORNING BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW
TO THE REGION. THE YUKON DELTA AND WESTERN INTERIOR WILL SEE THE
HIGHEST SNOW AMOUNTS. WITH 4"-8" OF SNOW EXPECTED. THE REST OF
THE REGION COULD SEE UP TO 4" OF SNOWFALL.
- THERE COULD BE REDUCED VISIBILITY DUE TO GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS
AND FALLING SNOW ACROSS THE WEST COAST.
NORTH SLOPE AND BROOKS RANGE...
- DANGEROUS WINDS CHILLS ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE WILL CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. WARMING TEMPERATURES AND WEAKENING WINDS ON
SATURDAY WILL HELP TO ALLEVIATE CONDITIONS.
- TWO ROUNDS OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FIRST
ROUND WILL MOVE WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE NORTH SLOPE TODAY
BRINGING 1"-2" OF SNOW. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL SEE THE NEXT ROUND
OF SNOW WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1"-2" EXPECTED.
- STRONG EASTERLY WINDS AND FALLING SNOW ACROSS THE CHUCKCHI SEA
COASTLINE TODAY WILL CREATE PERIODS OF BLIZZARD CONDITIONS. BY
THIS EVENING THE THREAT FOR BLIZZARD CONDITIONS WILL HAVE
DIMINISHED.
FORECAST ANALYSIS AND DISCUSSION
A DECAYING LOW PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN BERING SEA WILL TRANSITION
TO AN UPPER-LEVEL WAVE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL UPPER-LEVEL
WAVE WILL PHASE INTO THE MAIN FLOW PATTERN ALOFT AND WILL QUICKLY
RACE TO THE EAST. WE WILL SEE THE STATIONARY FRONT THAT HAS SAT
OVER THE WEST COAST AND BROOKS RANGE GET REINFORCING COLD AIR
ADVECTION FROM THE WEST ALLOWING FOR THE BOUNDARY TO STRENGTHEN A
BIT. AS THIS FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE INTERIOR THERE WILL BE LIGHT
SNOW TO ACCOMPANY IT, WITH A WIDESPREAD 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW
EXPECTED FROM THIS FRONT. A BRIEF PERIOD OF DRIER AND COLDER
CONDITIONS WILL SET UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY BEFORE OUR
NEXT SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHERN ALASKA.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON WE WILL SEE THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE
ONTO THE WEST COAST. THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE MUCH MORE ORGANIZED
THAN WHAT THE PAST COUPLE OF MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN SHOWING, WITH A
CLOSED OFF UPPER-LEVEL LOW. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT THAT A WEAK WARM FRONT WILL SET UP FROM THE UPPER
KUSKOKWIM VALLEY TO THE TANANA VALLEY. WE ARE EXPECTING THIS TO BE
WHERE THE HIGHEST SNOW TOTALS TO BE. SOUNDINGS FOR SATURDAY ACROSS
THE REGION SHOWS A VERY HEALTHY DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE. WITH THIS
SNOW RATIOS COULD BE ON THE 20 TO 1 OR HIGHER SCALE. THERE IS
MODEL SPREAD ON THESE RATIOS WITH THE LOWEST BEING 15 TO 1 AND THE
HIGHEST AROUND 26 TO 1. THESE SNOW RATIOS DIFFERENCES ACCOUNTS FOR
A LOT OF THE MODEL DISAGREEMENT ON SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. AT THIS
TIME WE ARE EXPECTING WIDESPREAD 4 TO 8 INCHES ACROSS THIS
BOUNDARY, WHILE THE REST OF THE INTERIOR COULD SEE 2 TO 4 INCHES.
IF THE RATIOS DO PAN OUT TO BE HIGHER THAN 20 TO 1 THEN SNOW
TOTALS WOULD BE HIGHER THAN THOSE RANGES.
ALONG THE WEAK WARM FRONT A LOW-LEVEL JET WITH MOVE INTO THE AREA
SATURDAY MORNING AND GOING INTO EARLY SUNDAY. THIS JET HAS WINDS
UP TO 40 MPH. WITH SOME OF THE SOUNDINGS, THERE ARE PERIODS THAT
THERE WOULD BE A WELL MIXED LAYER TO THE SURFACE. THIS WOULD ALLOW
FOR THE WINDS TO MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE. DEPENDING ON SNOWFALL
RATES AND HOW MUCH WIND DOES MIX TO THE SURFACE WE COULD SEE
BLOWING SNOW CONCERNS FOR THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN INTERIOR.
LOCATIONS ABOVE 1000 FEET WOULD HAVE HIGHER CHANCES TO SEE ANY
IMPACTS OF BLOWING SNOW.
EXTENDED FORECAST DAYS 4-7
RIDGING WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP OVER THE WESTERN INTERIOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS RIDGING WILL ALLOW FOR COLDER AND DRIER ARCTIC AIR TO
RETURN TO THE EASTERN INTERIOR. TEMPERATURES COULD DROP TO THE 20S
BELOW ZERO IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL BE
TRANSIENT CLOUDS AND SNOW SHOWERS NEXT WEEK, SO THAT COULD LIMIT
HOW COULD IT ACTUALLY GETS. ON THE WEST COAST A SERIES OF FRONTS
WILL MOVE THROUGH NEXT WEEK BRINING CHANCES FOR GUSTY WINDS AND
SNOW SHOWERS.
COASTAL HAZARD POTENTIAL DAYS 3 AND 4...NONE
AFG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
AK...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ801.
COLD WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ801>810.
BLIZZARD WARNING FOR AKZ820-821.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR AKZ825.
PK...GALE WARNING FOR PKZ801-850-856.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ802-806.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ803-805.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ804.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ807-813>815-851-859>861.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ808-855.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ809.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ811.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ812-858.
BRISK WIND ADVISORY FOR PKZ816-817.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ852-853.
GALE WARNING FOR PKZ857.
DENNIS
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